469
FXAK68 PAFC 131422
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
522 AM AKST Thu Nov 13 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Saturday Night)...

Cold and mostly dry weather remains in place for much of
Southcentral Alaska today. Radar imagery shows snow/rain showers
across Prince William Sound, and also a few very light snow showers
extending from the Talkeetnas and Susitna Valley south through the
Mat Valley and even into Anchorage. Our office in west Anchorage has
measured approximately 3 snowflakes thus far overnight. Today will
be similar to the last couple days with temperatures near or just a
few degrees below climatological-averages and some sunshine able to
peak through later.

A front begins to push into and across Kodiak Island from the west
late tonight into tomorrow morning. Models have trended a bit wetter
with this front as it moves across Kodiak Island. Can`t rule out
some snow at onset, but generally most precipitation will fall as
rain at/near sea level on Friday, including for Kodiak City. Small
craft (>23kts) winds will expand across much of the western Gulf,
while winds strengthen to gale-force (>34kts) across southern
Cook Inlet close to Augustine and perhaps the Barren Islands, as
well as through Shelikof Strait.

The front and preceding onshore flow will bring snow(some low-
elevation rain) to the Gulf coast of the Kenai Peninsula and perhaps
just ever so slightly into the Prince William Sound before
dissipating as the parent low shifts east and south across the Gulf
on Saturday.

Elsewhere/inland locations, cold and generally dry, calm conditions
will prevail through the end of the week with temps very gradually
trending warmer with each day.

-Brown

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A remnant front and trough axis remains situated across Southwest
Alaska coastal areas and extends southward across the Alaska
Peninsula. Some weak radar (snow) returns have been noted this
morning as well as areas of mid level (3000-5000 ft) clouds, which
has helped to negate radiational cooling and has kept
temperatures in the 20s to near 30F for the Alaska Peninsula and
coastal Southwest Alaska locations. Elsewhere across the
Kuskokwim- Delta interior, skies have cleared and winds are light
to calm, which has allowed temperatures to cool well below
guidance this morning. High resolution guidance shows the trough
axis dissipating by mid morning, but expect clouds to linger
across coastal Southwest Alaska for the rest of today with skies
to remain mostly clear for the interior.

Farther west, the setup is more active as a pair of ~990 mb
surface lows can be seen on satellite. One low is centered south
of Nikolski and another is moving across Amchitka and Adak. Upper
level dynamics shows the western-most low has aligned with a
digging trough moving over the Western Aleutians, while the low to
the east is moving underneath a broad upper level ridge with an
embedded subtle shortwave rippling through the upper level mean
flow. The global models show the western surface low deepening and
expanding in size while under the influence of the digging trough
as it travels into the Bering, while the eastern low remains
steady-state as it moves northeastward towards the Alaska
Peninsula. Deterministic models show the smaller low being
absorbed into the larger low`s trough axis Thursday evening into
early Friday morning, with the dominant low situated in the
vicinity of the Pribilof Islands.

With a surface high developing well south of the Aleutian Chain
and a relatively strong ~975 mb low near the Pribilof Islands,
pressure gradient induced westerly gales become likely late
Thursday for the Aleutians. With the high shifting eastward in
tandem with the eastward progression of the low to the north,
westerly gales gusting to storm force will likely traverse the
Chain from west to east through Friday evening.

The pattern becomes increasingly active heading into the weekend.
Models are still a bit all over the place with placement and
timing, but the general idea is that another pair of low pressure
systems make their way northward from the North Pacific. Models
have latched on to the idea that one low ventures northwest of
Shemya Saturday morning, while a deeper, yet more compact low
rides northward and west of the aforementioned surface high. The
Canadian and ECMWF are the fastest at bringing the latter low to
the Aleutian Chain, but differ significantly on how the deep the
low becomes. The GFS and NAM agree well on intensity, but still
differ somewhat on location and timing. Please stay tuned to the
forecast as details hopefully become clearer in the next couple of
days as this low has the potential to be impactful to the
Aleutians and points northward.

-AM


&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

For Southcentral, the long term forecast reflects the eastward
displacement of the persistent Gulf of Alaska trough into Canada
by early monday morning, allowing a ridge of high pressure to
ridge into the region. This will bring cooing temperatures across
Southcentral through mid-week.

The larger weather concerns are for Pribilofs, Southwest Alaska
and Aleutian Islands. A deepening North Pacific low, embedded with
a broad upper level Bering trough will lift northwestward from
the Central Aleutians, delivering gale-to-storm force winds and
heavy precipitation across the southern Bering Sea, including the
Pribilofs before before weakening early in the week. A second
North Pacific low pressure system is forecasted to cross over the
Aleutians late Monday and into Tuesday. This will bring sustained
southerly to southwesterly flow and elevating precipitation
probabilities across Southwest Alaska. The exact path of the
system is somewhat uncertain as there is very little agreement
between the major global models. A frontal boundary advancing
onshore Tuesday and into Wednesday will reinforce above-normal
temperatures and precipitation with the potential for coastal
rainfall and inland mixed precipitation in the elevated terrain.


&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Very light
snow showers around the Anchorage bowl will continue to diminish
this morning. Pockets of fog or low stratus are possible again
tonight, but coverage and confidence is too low for TAF inclusion
at this point.

&&


$$