254
FXAK68 PAFC 181312
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
512 AM AKDT Mon Aug 18 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Monday through Wednesday)...

Cloudcover is beginning to spill over the ridge axis to our west,
but this is mostly high cirrus for the time being. With that,
expect another day of near average to above average temperatures
for Southcentral. For Tuesday expect a bit of a pattern change as
a shortwave drops quickly down from the Arctic and digs into the
Gulf on Wednesday. This will be a fast moving feature, but
widespread rain is expected for just about everywhere but Kodiak
starting Tuesday and ending Wednesday morning. Behind the system
temperatures should rebound into the mid to upper 60s with mostly
sunny skies for the western portions of Southcentral (western
Kenai north through Broad Pass) by Wednesday afternoon, while the
Copper Basin stays on the cloudy side. However, be on the lookout
for fog on Wednesday morning around the Cook Inlet, Anchorage and
the Mat-Su Valleys should we clear out quick enough after the
rain. Winds should remain mostly calm through the forecast
period, with the next approaching storm on Thursday expected to
stay in the far southern Gulf of Alaska.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
Days 1 to 3: (Today through Wednesday afternoon)...

Little has changed with the forecast since the previous forecast
update. Forecast confidence is medium to high, with lower
confidence regarding the extent and density of fog.

A low south of the Pribilof Islands will continue to bring light
rain to the southern Bering before it moves into the North
Pacific this afternoon. As it departs, northerly gap winds
increase along the Eastern Aleutians and Southern Alaska
Peninsula. For Tuesday morning, a front enters the Western Bering
and moves northeastwards across the Bering Sea, bringing
southwesterly winds to 30 kt and light rain to the central Bering
before weakening Wednesday afternoon.

For Southwest Alaska, upper level shortwave troughs will bring a
slight chance of showers to Kuskokwim Delta through this afternoon.
On Tuesday morning a stronger trough will bring widespread rain
chances to the Kuskokwim Valley. By Tuesday afternoon, skies will
begin to clear across Southwest Alaska as transient ridging moves
in. This will lead to cooler nighttime temperatures from Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning, with overnight lows dipping into the
low 40s and perhaps even into the high 30s for Kuskokwim Valley.
Clearer skies will be short-lived, however, as cloud cover and
increased chances for precipitation return with the approaching
Bering Sea front Wednesday afternoon.


&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Thursday through
Sunday)...

The main weather feature for Southcentral will be a persistent
deep Arctic upper level low-pressure system. Shortwave energy from
this system will begin to sweep across the area, leading to a
period of active precipitation that will continue through the
weekend. High temperatures will remain seasonally average but
widespread cloud coverage will likely keep overnight lows warmer
than normal.

For the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands, the weather pattern will
undergo a significant change late in the week. A high-pressure
ridge that has been over the Bering Sea will weaken, allowing a
new deep low-pressure system to form. This system is anticipated
to bring a substantial plum of moisture from the Bering Sea into
the western part of the State. By the weekend, this could lead to
heavy rain over portions of the West coast and interior of Alaska.


The European model is favored early on with a transition to the
Ensemble blend towards the end of the forecast period.

-DD

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through this
afternoon. The Turnagain Arm wind is expected to bend over the
terminal by 06Z, with southerly gusts to 18 knots.

&&


$$