073
FXAK68 PAFC 040055
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
455 PM AKDT Thu Sep 3 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This
afternoon through Sunday afternoon)...

Overall, we`re trending towards unsettled weather for Labor Day
Weekend, with no major hazards anticipated. The forecast looks on
track, with few changes to this morning`s forecast package.

With the ridge axis shifting eastward and southwesterly flow
moving up the backside of the ridge, cloud cover is steadily
increasing across much of Southcentral this afternoon. Patches of
marine stratus and fog linger along Kodiak Island, and will
likely push north into Cook Inlet and the northern Gulf through
tonight.

A pattern change will begin to take place tomorrow as a broad low
out west tries to push into the ridge over the Mainland. Model
guidance disagrees on when this will occur, but it has trended
later and later with each successive model run. Eventually, likely
by late tomorrow or early Saturday morning, a stronger shortwave
will round the southern base of the trough and push the ridge far
enough east to bring rain back to the region. Additionally, a
coastal ridge will develop and some light gap winds will move into
the typical spots. This cross barrier flow will mitigate some of
the rain for lee-side areas on Saturday, but Kodiak, the Sound,
Cook Inlet areas and Mat-Su Valleys will likely get some light
rain out of the disturbance as it pushes through.

Rain tapers off into showers through Saturday, with winds
decreasing by afternoon. This break, however, will be short-lived.
The next low will move north through the Gulf on Sunday, with
rain likely for Kodiak Island Sunday morning, and for the
Southcentral Mainland by Sunday evening.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3/Tonight through Sunday)...

A high amplitude pattern remains in place across Alaska, with a
trough with embedded low in the Bering Sea and north-central
Pacific and a ridge downstream over mainland Alaska, the Gulf, and
northeast Pacific. A multi-ceneterd low is weakening over the
western Bering, while a north-south oriented cold front progresses
slowly eastward across the eastern Bering Sea and onshore of
western AK. A narrow band of strong and gusty southerly winds and
rain just ahead of the cold front extends from False Pass, Cold
Bay, King Cove, and Sand Point along the Alaska Peninsula
northward to Bethel and the Kuskokwim Delta communities. There is
an atmospheric river along this same corridor, with total
precipitable water values of 1.5 to 1.75 inches, but dynamic
forcing is weak, so rainfall is steady but light. There likely is
heavier rain in upslope flow along the mountains of the Alaska
Peninsula and Southwest AK. Elsewhere across the region, mostly
cloudy skies and localized areas of fog prevail. The balmy
temperatures in Dutch Harbor/Unalaska (in the 60s) continue due to
warm air aloft and southwesterly downslope flow. However, the
cold front is ushering in cooler air aloft, so this will be the
last warm day.

The forecast is largely on track, with some minor changes for the
weekend forecast. Rain and wind will continue to slowly spread
eastward across Southwest AK to Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim
Delta tonight through Friday before exiting eastward Friday night.
A couple of weak to moderate storm systems will track out of the
west Pacific and along or south of the Aleutian Chain, the first
Friday night through Saturday night and the second Sunday into
Monday. There is some north-south spread in model tracks, but
neither of these storms looks terribly strong and the most likely
scenario is a quick glancing blow of elevated winds and rain as
they pass through the region. Weather across Southwest AK this
weekend looks a bit messier, with weak and disorganized upper
level short-waves streaming in off the Bering Sea. This will lead
to mostly cloudy skies, localized areas of fog, and chances for
rain. Due to the weak forcing and model spread in track of
specific features, it is hard to nail down when and where the best
chances of rain will be. Temperatures will be very seasonable for
this time of year, with lows in the 40s and highs in the 50s for
nearly the entire region (Southwest AK, the Aleutians and
Pribilof Islands).


-SEB

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

A shortwave moves across Southwest Sunday night and through Southcentral
early next week. It brings moderate rainfall to the the Kenai
Peninsula and mountainous areas of Southcentral.  As this low
digs into the Gulf of Alaska, locally heavy rainfall is possible
in the Prince William Sound region Monday into Wednesday. Current
guidance on the timing and exact location of the low crossing the
state remains low but confidence remains high of a change to an
overall wet pattern for most of Southcentral next week. Persistent
southwesterly flow behind this low will continue to bring weak
fronts through Southwest Alaska into the middle of next week.

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through Friday
morning. Southeasterly winds will increase Friday afternoon with
gusts to around 20 kt anticipated at this time.

&&


$$