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FXAK68 PAFC 120020
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
420 PM AKDT Mon May 11 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Thursday)...

Upper level ridging over the far eastern areas of the region and
the eastern Gulf continues to drift to the east into the Panhandle
and western Canada. Strengthening southerly flow becoming more
southeasterly ahead of a front currently over Kodiak Island is
bringing increased light upslope precipitation along the eastern
Kenai Peninsula and eastern slopes of the Alaska Range this
afternoon. The southeasterly flow has helped to reinforce a
coastal ridge already in place and has led to the onset of gusty
winds across a number of spots as southerly gap winds pick up
through favored valleys near the Kenai and Chugach Mountains. The
Copper River Valley, Knik Valley and Turnagain Arm will all see
strong and gusty winds continue through this evening, with much of
Anchorage also likely to see gusty southeast winds through the
remainder of this afternoon and evening. Winds will bend south
away from the Anchorage Bowl later this evening as the frontal
wave approaches the Barren Islands and induces a strong down-inlet
pressure gradient. Meanwhile, rain will begin to fill in across
Kodiak Island and along the coast from the southern Kenai
Peninsula to Prince William Sound as moisture moving in ahead of
the front wrings out over the coastal mountains. Most inland
valleys will stay dry thanks to strong cross-barrier flow and
downslope flow.

By early Tuesday, the frontal boundary will lift north past
Kodiak Island and begin to slow its progress as it approaches the
northern Gulf coast. Current thinking remains that a widespread
swath of gale force winds develop ahead of the front late tonight
into Tuesday from the southern Cook Inlet and Barren Islands out
to Middleton Island. Across the Mainland farther north, similar
conditions as today are expected for Tuesday as southerly gap
winds pick back up across the Copper River Valley and Knik Valley,
with steady, moderate rain and mountain snow continuing along the
coast. The front will weaken as it hangs up along the coast on
Wednesday, with some potential for scattered rain showers to make
it farther inland.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Thursday)...

A broad surface low west of the Pribilofs has an attendant small
craft front draped across the eastern Bering and Alaska Peninsula.
As the front moves over Alaska Peninsula and the Southwest Alaska
coastline, expect steady easterly winds strongest along the
immediate coast and through the Kamishak Gap. Rainfall across the
Southwest coastline will accompany the front, with a rain/snow mix
persisting over the Pribilofs closer to the low center. No
significant snowfall accumulation is expected over the Pribilofs
with this system as temperatures remain close to or above
freezing. Precipitation and winds will generally diminish across
the region through midweek, with one exception being continued
rainfall across the Eastern Aleutians and southern Alaska
Peninsula through Wednesday as the western backside of the low
stretches over. Areas along the Kuskokwim remain under Flood
Watches, with a Flood Advisory out for Kalskag with observed
flooding over local roadways. Stay tuned on our website for more
info on the evolving hydrologic hazards in the area. Lastly,
Kamishak gap winds increase to gale force for a short time Tuesday
morning and are focused along a corridor just west of Iliamna
until the aforementioned front dissipates just inland across
Southwest Alaska. By Thursday, weak ridging builds in across the
Central Bering providing even calmer conditions across the Region
heading into the latter half of the work week.

-CL

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

Troughing over the eastern Bering looks to persist through the
weekend and favor an unsettled pattern, especially for coastal
areas of southcentral Alaska. A North Pacific low moves eastward
south of the Aleutian Chain Friday and tracks into the
southwestern Gulf on Saturday. After Saturday morning, models
disagree with precise positioning, tracking and strength of the
low but are consistent with a few features. Confidence is high
for precipitation and stronger winds across the Aleutians and
southern AKPen Friday, tapering off Saturday morning. Chances for
precipitation increase Saturday morning for Kodiak Island and the
northern Gulf coast. There is uncertainty where the heaviest
precipitation this weekend will be due to model disagreement
regarding the positioning of the low. Should this low track north
and occlude in the Gulf, periods of heavier precipitation are
favorable for Kodiak Island and the northern Gulf Coast,
especially Saturday night into Sunday. Models do agree on a
coastal ridge building across southcentral Alaska as a front moves
northward through the Gulf Saturday into Sunday. This will
increase easterly winds throughout the Gulf Saturday and persist
into Sunday as the front stalls in the northern Gulf.

Outside of the Aleutians/AKPen, coastal southcentral and areas
with upsloping winds, chances for precipitation are relatively low
this weekend.


PA

&&







.AVIATION...

PANC...A strong front will impact coastal Southcentral, but strong
low level downslope flow will maintain VFR conditions in Anchorage.
Gusty southeast Turnagain winds will begin to bend southward
and away from the terminal some time this evening in response to
the front crossing the Gulf. This could cause a brief period of
low level wind shear between shallow northerly surface winds and
stronger southeasterly winds above the surface, especially for
south and east of the terminal. As we continue into the overnight
hours, the southward bend of the Turnagain jet will become much
stronger, leading to much lighter winds through at least the first
2000 feet of the atmosphere (and ending any low level wind shear).
The light northerly winds will hold in place until Tuesday
afternoon or evening, at which point there is a chance of
southeasterly Turnagain winds returning as the front in the Gulf
weakens and the Turnagain jet starts to shift back northward
across the northern Inlet and Fire Island.

-SEB

&&


$$