971
FXAK68 PAFC 291238
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
438 AM AKDT Wed Jul 29 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Conditions will remain generally clear and dry across much of
Southcentral through the next several days as a ridge of high
pressure continues to build over the region from interior Alaska.

A stalled and decaying stationary boundary draped over the Copper
River Basin this morning is resulting in some lingering low and
mid level cloud cover across the basin and along the foothills of
the Talkeetna, Chugach, and Kenai Mountains. Some of these clouds
may drift over Palmer and Anchorage this morning before drier air
advects over the region and the cloud cover erodes by midday. An
isolated shower is also possible over the mountains today. Gusty
winds for Seward and Whittier this morning will begin to wind down
by late this afternoon.

As high pressure settles over the region, temperatures over the
next several days will trend slightly above normal for the end of
July, with daytime highs in the upper 60s to near 70F along the
coast and lower to upper 70s for the typical warmer locations
across interior Southcentral. Given the dry airmass in places,
expect early morning low temperatures falling into the low to mid
40s for many locations. There may even be a few locations across
parts of the Susitna Valley, Western Kenai Peninsula, Copper River
Basin that see early morning low temperatures in the upper
30s...if skies remain clear.

Areas of low stratus and fog will likely develop and expand in
area over the Gulf today as the ridge builds and the subsidence
inversion strengthens. The main forecast challenge over the next
24 to 48 hours will be the extent of development, how this airmass
advects toward the coast, and which locations along the immediate
coast see an increase in cloud cover.

-TM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING
SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday)...

Current satellite imagery shows a ridge over the Bering which
extends over Southwest and into the Interior and a low in the
northwest Pacific. The low moves towards the western Aleutians
this afternoon and will continue to move eastward throughout the
forecast period. With eastward movement of the low, the ridge will
be displaced to the east. By Friday evening, the low will be over
the eastern Bering and southern AKPen while the ridge will be
over Southcentral. Behind the low, another ridge begins to build
over the western Aleutians starting tomorrow night.

With the ridge over Southwest, conditions will be calm and mostly
clear through Friday.While much of Southwest and the northern
AKPen will see highs in the 60s to low 70s, the areas to watch
will be from Bristol Bay north to the Kuskokwim Valley, where
there will likely be a prolonged period of daytime highs above 70
degrees. The warmest of these days will be today and tomorrow for
Bristol Bay and the AKPen as the ridge axis moves overhead. For
Bristol Bay, conditions like these occur about once a year,
typically towards the end of July. With more people out and about
conducting subsistence activities, it`s a good idea to plan for
these warmer temperatures, especially as several days in a row of
70+ degree temperatures could lead to cumulative heat stress. The
good news is that overnight lows will dip to 45-50 degrees,
providing the opportunity for some cooling down overnight.
Additionally, overnight fog has formed in the AKPen up to King
Salmon the past couple of nights and looks to continue. Areas with
pronounced fog presence saw slightly lower afternoon high
temperatures yesterday and may continue to see slightly lower high
temps both today and tomorrow. For the Kuskokwim Valley, tomorrow
and Friday will be warmest, with high temperatures on Friday
potentially reaching 80 degrees from Sleetmute to Lime Village.

For the Bering and Aleutians, low stratus and fog look to
persist. The Pacific low will send a front through the Aleutians
and southern Bering starting this afternoon. Rain and southerly
small-craft winds will be prevalent along the front as it moves
through the Aleutian Chain this afternoon through Friday. A
somewhat strong upper jet and theta-e ridge will be present with
this system, which may allow conditions to be conducive for
isolated marine lightning along the front. By Thursday evening the
front will be near Adak/Atka. At around this time, both the upper
jet and theta-e ridge weaken and conditions become more
unfavorable for marine lightning. By Friday evening the front will
be positioned in Bristol Bay through the AKPen with the occluded
low between the Pribilofs and Eastern Aleutians. Behind the low,
another ridge looks to form and potentially bring more fog and low
stratus for the western Aleutians and Bering.

-PA

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

Mainly dry and warm conditions continue across Southcentral
Alaska through the long term period as the region remains under
the influence of the upper level ridge through early next week.
Increasingly active weather is expected across the Bering Sea and
Southwest Alaska through the weekend into early next week as the
pattern becomes more progressive. The first upper low brings a
chance of rain to the eastern Aleutians into coastal Southwest
Saturday before sliding south into the North Pacific. Quickly
following this system, the next digging Arctic trough as well as a
low emerging off of Kamchatka enters the Bering for Sunday.
Models continue to remain in fair agreement on the interaction of
these two features in the Bering through midweek, leading to
additional rain chances across the Aleutian Chain, AKPen, and
Southwest Alaska. By the end of the forecast period, rain chances
increase from Kodiak Island to the eastern Kenai Peninsula as the
upper trough begins to pivot into the Gulf.

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will generally persist;
however, a cloud deck at 3,500 ft that developed north and east
of the terminal overnight will likely drift over Anchorage and
the terminal this morning before eroding by around noon. Winds
will be light through the day with a general west wind between 5
and 10 kt late this morning through late this evening.

&&


$$