610
FXAK68 PAFC 041327
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
527 AM AKDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

An upper level ridge centered over the Arctic coast is trying to
clear out skies this morning over Southcentral. However, is far
enough away that is is not producing quite enough subsidence to
keep away all the lower and mid-level clouds which is resulting in
generally partly cloudy skies over the region. This ridge,
combined with a low in the Gulf, is keeping the upper level flow
easterly over the area with a shortwave moving into the
northeastern Copper River Basin out of the Yukon. This shortwave
will likely produce some showers over the Copper River Basin this
afternoon with thunderstorms also possible, mainly over the
Wrangell Mountains and Talkeetna Mountains. While thunderstorms
should cease by midnight or shortly thereafter, the showers might
persist through the night and is the reason there is a chance for
overnight showers in the Mat-Su area into Saturday morning.

Adding to the complexity of the pattern is a low over the
Aleutians which is sending a front toward Kodiak Island which will
bring in more rain overnight into Saturday for Kodiak. This
system will become more significant as we progress through the
weekend as it will displace that upper level ridge and bring
widespread low pressure over Southcentral. Due to this, there will
probably be increasing showers activity by Saturday afternoon as
there is less ridging and cooler temperatures aloft. This will
then result in more widespread rainfall for the Gulf coast Sunday
which should spread into more inland parts of Southcentral by
Sunday night into Monday.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Sunday)...

A large upper level low over the southern Bering with its cyclonic
flow and a large area of high pressure over the northern coast of
Alaska with its anticyclonic flow are directing easterly waves
across the Southwest interior today. While the most unstable
conditions seem to be limited to the upper Kuskokwim valley this
afternoon, the southern Kuskokwim Valley, including Sleetmute,
Aniak, and Lime Village, may see light and scattered showers
through the day and into Saturday.

Elsewhere, the front of the aforementioned low will bring more
widespread showers to the eastern Aleutians and AKPen today
through Saturday afternoon. Southeasterly small craft advisory
winds will flow across Bristol Bay through the morning hours and
taper off 4-6PM AKST. The strongest gusts(up to 30 knots) are
expected form Port Heiden to Egegik and along the coastline west
of the Nushagak Peninsula.

By Saturday morning the low approaches the western AKPen. Its
front lifts rain into Bristol Bay for Saturday morning and farther
into the Southwest mainland by Saturday afternoon. Rain totals up
to 0.25 inch are expected through Sunday morning for most areas
with up to 0.75 inch for the windward side of the AKPen.


&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

A large upper-level low in the Gulf of Alaska on Monday will
continue to slide east to Southeast Alaska through Wednesday.
Meanwhile, there is moderate to above average confidence that an
Arctic trough will dig southwestward nearing Southwest Alaska for
Thursday. While southcentral see rainy conditions along the coast
and interior mountain ranges Monday, Southwest and the AKPEN will
remain mostly dry except for a few showers in interior Southwest.
Easterly upper-level shortwaves will continue across Southcentral
through Tuesday which will keep shower chances going for the
interior while the coast sees quieter weather by then.

As the Arctic trough begins to dig southwestward for Tuesday,
shortwaves also look to dig down ahead of the main trough across
Southwest. Most precipitation associated with these shortwaves
looks to be confined to the Kuskokwim Valley and along the Western
Alaska Range Tuesday and Wednesday. Showers fill in back further
east in the Susitna Valley for Wednesday as southwest flow around
the southerly digging trough becomes more dominant. Rain chances
make it back to the southern coast for Thursday with the greatest
chances being around Bristol Bay and Prince William Sound as
showers continue along the southwestern interior and the Susitna
Valley.

Along the Aleutians, a low pressure system will track just south
of the Chain Monday through bringing rain to the Western and
Central Aleutians. A Kamchatka low, not that strong, might impact
the Western Aleutians for Wednesday into Thursday. Confidence in
the low track for this possible system is very low at this time.

&&.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist. The southeasterly Turnagain
Arm winds are expected to develop again by mid to late afternoon
and persist through late tonight.

&&


$$