027
FXAK68 PAFC 231314
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
414 AM AKST Sun Feb 23 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

Little has changed forecast-wise with low pressure out in the
Gulf allowing for showers for the Gulf and coastal zones. A
building ridge over Alaska`s interior has resulted in some
clearing over portions of the Copper River Basin and Susitna
Valley, and temperatures steadily dropping overnight. As of early
this morning, temperatures in the Copper River Basin had dropped
into the single digits to lower teens and the Susitna Valley down
into the teens. Most elsewhere in Southcentral (with the exception
of lower elevations along the coast), temperatures have dropped
into the 20s to lower 30s under partly to mostly cloudy skies.
Over the next 24 to 48 hrs, little looks to change with another
low lifting into the northern Gulf reinforcing showers there and
high pressure over inland Alaska keeping most inland areas dry.
The exception will be the potential for some light snow to develop
over the Copper Basin tonight and into Monday morning as trough
moves inland. Another low will quickly move into the western Gulf
behind this system with another round of precipitation for the
coastal areas. Model consensus rapidly deteriorates beyond this
system with several continuing to lift it northwards through
midweek and a few lingering it over the Gulf for several more
days.

- PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Tuesday)...

A quiescent pattern is set to continue into the first half of the
week. Only a couple weak features and very light winds throughout
nearly the entire column remain in place across the outlook area
this morning. A weak upper level low that yesterday helped focus
areas of mixed precipitation across Bristol Bay has since weakened
and moved off into the northwestern Gulf, allowing precipitation
across Southwest to diminish. A narrow ridge axis centered over
the eastern Bering Sea is beginning to encroach onto Southwest,
helping weak offshore flow to develop along with breaks in the
cloud cover in place. Out west, a weak low continues to drift
aimlessly off to the north of the western Aleutians. An upper
trough axis associated with this low is beginning to pivot up
towards the Pribilofs and southern AKPen, where periods of very
light snowfall will be possible through this afternoon.

Looking to Monday and beyond, very little with the overall
picture will change. The weak surface low will continue to drift
across the western Bering, eventually pushing south towards the
western Aleutians by Tuesday. This won`t do much aside from
increasing snow shower activity for the western half of the Chain,
plus push northwesterly winds closer to small craft range.
Meanwhile, the trough axis to the east will lift northeast towards
Southwest, but it will likely stall out before reaching the
coast. Areas of light snow out ahead of the trough will also
mostly fall short of the coastline, except near parts of Nunivak
Island on Monday. Generally quiet conditions with seasonable highs
in the mid 10s to mid 30s will continue for Tuesday.

-AS

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7) Wednesday through
Saturday.

On the Alaska Weather map, an upper level ridge extends from
Western Canada across Interior Alaska through the forecast period.
This ridge will be briefly flattened by shortwaves rotating over
the top of the ridge on Thursday, but will resume its strength and
extension afterwards. Elsewhere across the state, a broad upper
level low stretches from Russia across the Aleutians and Bering to
the North Pacific into the weekend. A couple of low centers in
the Bering and North Pacific will flex the pattern through
Saturday. The ECMWF / GFS and Canadian models handle features
quite well, with the exception of a Gulf of Alaska low on
Wednesday that the GFS drives further Southward than the other
models.

Some upper disturbances drive areas of rain, rain and snow or
snow over the open Bering through Saturday. In the East, a
decaying low brings widespread rain from the AKPEN across Kodiak
Island Wednesday, and extending over Prince William Sound and the
Southcentral coast with more moderate precipitation continuing
through Saturday. Some areas of snow will occur inland and over
higher elevations. This low will dissipates Thursday. A second
well developed North Pacific low spreads snow up to Bristol Bay
and Southwest Alaska, the Pribilofs and Northern Bering Thursday,
changing to locally moderate rain and gusty winds approaching gale
force from the Central Aleutians into the AKPEN on Friday. The
associated front spreads locally moderate rain across to the
Canadian border, with more snow inland and over higher elevations
through Saturday.

- Kutz

&&



.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds will persist at
the terminal. There is a chance for light snow or flurries in the
vicinity this afternoon, though the probability for snow over the
terminal is around 10 to 20 percent.

&&


$$