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FXAK68 PAFC 080033
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
433 PM AKDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The deep low pressure system just southeast of Kodiak this
afternoon that brought gusty winds along the northern Gulf coast
and widespread rain across Southcentral will continue to track
northeast towards the coast through Sunday morning. Both winds and
heavier precipitation will continue to trend down throughout the
overnight hours tonight as the front reaches the Gulf coast and
the bulk of the Pacific moisture source is pushed off towards the
east. Just as this current system reaches the Gulf coast and
pushes inland by Sunday afternoon, a cold, upper level low begins
to dig south across Southwest Alaska towards Southcentral. Upper
level support associated with this system in combination with
ample moisture advecting into the area will result in the re-
development of rain Sunday morning shortly after the rain from the
first system ends. Showery weather across most of Southcentral is
expected to continue through Monday afternoon as a series of
waves rotate around the low as it slowly travels southwards into
the Gulf. Things begin to dry out across the area by Tuesday
afternoon into midweek as the low departs to the southeast in the
Gulf.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Tuesday evening)...

A North Pacific low currently southeast of Kodiak Island
continues to lift northeast further into the Gulf of Alaska for
the rest of today and into Sunday. As this low pulls further into
the Gulf, rain showers will eventually taper off this evening
across the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) and interior Bristol Bay. A
northerly flow pattern will also continue across much of Southwest
Alaska this weekend behind the low. Breezy conditions are
expected across much of Southwest Alaska through early Sunday
morning. Strongest winds, reaching near small craft (25 knots/29
mph) are likely along the Kuskokwim Delta coast and Western Capes.
A small corridor of gale-force winds (34 knots/39 mph) is also
likely south of the AKPEN in the North Pacific through tonight.
Gusty northwesterly winds of 45 to 55 mph also continue across
King Cove tonight before slowly diminishing through Sunday
morning.

A colder and drier airmass is pulled south across the Southwest
Mainland keeping temperatures on the cooler side through this
weekend with the coldest readings taking place Sunday morning. The
coldest places will be between Bethel and Aniak where temperatures
look to drop into the lower 30s. Little to no chances for
precipitation overall, however, some upslope rain showers are
possible along the mountain ranges.

Farther out west, high pressure extends across a large chunk of
the Bering Sea the rest of today and Sunday with a weak front
moving over the Western and Central Aleutians this afternoon
through Sunday morning. Areas under the high pressure ridge can
expected to see widespread marine stratus and areas of fog. Along
the front anticipate widespread rain showers stretching across the
Western and Central Aleutians this afternoon into Sunday morning.
The stratus and fog will continue until the ridge erodes, which
will occur gradually over the coming days as several waves run up
against the ridge`s western flank. A second, stronger front moves
into the western Bering Sunday evening, bringing renewed
widespread precipitation (moderate to heavy at times) for Sunday
night through Tuesday across the Western and Central Aleutians.
There is potential for a broad swath of 25+ kt winds with a small
corridor of gale-force winds. Light rain is possible for the
Pribilof Islands as early as Monday afternoon as the low works
further east with precipitation making it to the Eastern Aleutians
and southern AKPEN Tuesday. As for mainland southwest, the
Kuskokwim Delta Coast and Nunivak Island have the best chance to
see light rain on Tuesday as most of the moisture remains to the
north of west of Bristol Bay and the rest of mainland southwest.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

An upper level closed low over the Central Gulf of Alaska
continues its trek along the West Coast past Queen Victoria Island
through the forecast period. An upper level ridge moves across
Mainland Alaska through the week. Across the Bering, after a
couple of significant shortwaves move through the pattern, a well
supported negatively tilted trough sets up from the Russian Arctic
to the North Pacific. The forecast blend of GFS / ECMWF and
Canadian models carry the main features through the weekend, Most
uncertainty rests with the smaller details.

A decaying front extending from a Western Bering low into the
Central and Eastern Bering and spreads its rain from Western
Alaska to the Alaska Peninsula, diminishing through midweek. A
well developed North Pacific low and front moves into the
Aleutians and AKPEN early Thursday bring moderate to locally heavy
rain over the Aleutians into Western Alaska, AKPEN and Kodiak
Island by Saturday. Gusty winds approach the AKPEN from the North
Pacific early Friday, and reach Kodiak Island through Saturday.

- Kutz

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...Rain this morning will taper off for time this afternoon
before scattered showers develop across the Anchorage Bowl this
evening and remain over the region through late tonight or early
morning Sunday. VFR conditions will likely prevail during this
time, with the potential for ceilings to lower to MVFR at times
in any showers that do develop over the terminal. Northerly winds
early through this evening will shift and become southerly around
midnight. During this time, showers are expected to become more
isolated; however, ceilings may lower to MVFR as the wind flow
aloft weakens and shifts more southwesterly.

Another round of rain is then expected by late Sunday morning as
MVFR ceilings (as low as 1,500 ft) and visibilities prevail.
Winds Sunday will generally be light, out of the south-southwest.
Rain showers and MVFR conditions may linger into Monday morning.

&&


$$