527
FXAK68 PAFC 080048
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
448 PM AKDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Tuesday)...

Clouds continue to stream northward across the Gulf this afternoon
as a weak low in the southern Gulf continues to drift eastward
into the Southern Panhandle. Bands of light rain are moving
through Prince William Sound and portions of the Kenai Peninsula,
with some precipitation attempting to spill west of the mountains
into Cook Inlet. However, we still have relatively dry air that
remains in place across much of Southcentral, this will be
limiting rainfall amounts and allowing many inland locations to
stay dry. Meanwhile, gap wins remain elevated through the usual
terrain- favored locations, though speeds have generally begun a
gradual downward trend compared to yesterday.

Through the rest of today, weak ridging extending westward from
the Yukon and British Columbia will continue to maintain generally
quiet weather across much of the region. Cloud cover will remain
most persistent near the coast and across the Gulf-facing slopes,
while interior valleys see a mix of clouds and occasional breaks
in sunshine.

Tomorrow, the Gulf low shifts farther east while the ridge
weakens and begins to lose influence across Southcentral. As the
pressure gradient finally relaxes, gap winds through Turnagain
Arm, Knik River Valley, and other favored locations are expected
to continue diminish through the day. Temperatures will trend
slightly warmer, though widespread cloud cover will likely keep
most locations from reaching the warmer temperatures seen last
week. Farther east, modest instability developing during the
afternoon and evening may support isolated thunderstorms across
portions of the Copper River Basin, particularly near Gulkana,
Paxson and surrounding higher terrain.

Attention turns to Tuesday as a stronger upper-level trough and
associated surface front push eastward across the Alaska Range.
Increasing lift ahead of the trough will allow a band of rain to
develop and spread into the Susitna Valley, Anchorage Bowl, and
western Kenai Peninsula during the day. Confidence is high that
many locations will see measurable rainfall, with the highest
chances occurring from the morning through late afternoon.
Rainfall amounts do not appear especially heavy at this time, but
Tuesday is shaping up to be the wettest day of the forecast period
for much of Southcentral.


LM


&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday morning)...

Satellite imagery this morning shows a low pressure system
continuing to spin in the southern Gulf of Alaska with a transient
and weak upper-level ridge over the southwest interior. A
shortwave trough is digging southward across Western Alaska this
morning as the base of this trough makes it over Southwest Alaska
through today. This feature, combined with weak waves rotating
around the Gulf low, will help to kick off another round of
showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The
best chances for isolated thunderstorms to develop will be along
the eastern slopes of the Kuskokwim, Kilbuck, and Ahklun
Mountains, as well as along the Western Alaska Range. Rain will
continue overnight tonight along the Western Alaska Range and
upper Aleutian Range as the atmosphere stabilizes from this
afternoon and evening`s convection.

Beginning Monday, a secondary trough, stronger than today`s, will
dig southward over Southwest Alaska. An attendant cold front,
also moving south with the trough, will deliver another round of
rain mostly to the southwestern interior. The airmass accompanying
this feature is relatively cold, and temperatures across the
Kuskokwim Valley and along the Western Alaska Range will struggle
to get much higher than 60 degrees Monday and Tuesday. This
relatively cooler air at the surface, in conjunction with cloud
cover, should hinder thunderstorm formation both Monday and
Tuesday. The front weakens by Tuesday morning as light showers
make it to Iliamna by then. Rain tapers off by Tuesday afternoon
across Mainland Southwest with a quiet and dry day expected for
Wednesday.

Farther out west, flow remains out of the north across the Bering
Sea and Aleutian Chain due to the low in the Gulf of Alaska and
high pressure centered just south of Kamchatka. The result of this
pattern continues to be low stratus, fog, and misty conditions
across much of the Bering, including the Bering side of the Alaska
Peninsula, the Pribilof Islands, and along the Aleutian Chain.
Expect the core of the high pressure ridge to begin moving
eastward Monday. The ridge will move over Shemya by Monday
afternoon and across Adak/Atka by Tuesday evening into Wednesday.
The challenge with the movement of this ridge is tracking any fog
development underneath it. There are indications that this ridge
will continue moving east through the day Wednesday and Thursday,
which could open the door for more in the way of unsettled weather
in the form of a North Pacific low to send its front into the
western Bering and Western Aleutians late Wednesday into early
Thursday. This will be something to watch down the road.

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

An upper-level trough continues to dig southeast from the
Northwest Arctic coast across western Alaska. By late Thursday,
this feature begins to suppress the weakening upper-level ridge
over the central interior, bifurcating the ridge with one lobe
retreating to the eastern Gulf and the second lobe lifting north
over the eastern Bering. At the surface, a cold front attached to
a low over the North Slope tries to move over the Alaska Range,
but weakens, stalls, then eventually lifts toward the Yukon by
late Friday.

Meanwhile, a surface low in the northern Gulf opens into a
surface trough for Thursday with showers lingering across the
coastal mountains. Some moisture may get pulled over the
mountains, a result of the increasing southerly flow out ahead of
the aforementioned upper-level trough. By Friday, there is some
uncertainty as to how much precipitation will linger across the
far eastern portions of Southcentral as both the upper-level ridge
and surface coastal ridge begin to build back over the Southern
Mainland in response to the departing shortwave.

The extension of the upper-level ridge across the Southern
Mainland will be brief in duration as an upper-level low and
strengthening North Pacific low both track north toward Kodiak
Island and the AKPen through Friday. Although the main surface low
occludes Saturday as it moves toward the Aleutians, its surface
front looks to stall somewhere between Kodiak Island and the Kenai
Peninsula. Multiple shortwaves riding along the frontal boundary
will advect moisture northward and across coastal Southcentral for
Saturday. Right now, it appears that a secondary area of low
pressure will develop along the front south of the Gulf of Alaska
by Sunday morning. This low then looks to move northwest allowing
for the development of a more east-southeasterly flow aloft out
ahead of it, driving the bulk of the moisture back toward Kodiak
Island and the AKPen, at least temporarily, by late Sunday. There
are some GFS and EC forecast/ensemble members indicating the
potential for a weak atmospheric river event anywhere from Prince
William Sound to Kodiak Island with this system. So stay tuned
for forecast updates.

Farther west, the western half of the Aleutians will continue to
see showers from the initial, and now decaying, North Pacific low.

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period with
ceilings expected to remain about 5 kft and visibility remaining
VFR. Southeast winds out of Turnagain Arm will remain gusty into
the evening hours with gusts of 25 to 30 kt then gradually
decreasing through Monday morning. While chances are low, a few
showers might make it over the Chugach mountains allowing for a
few sprinkles.

&&


$$