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FXAK68 PAFC 161457
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
557 AM AKST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Tuesday)...

A pattern change is under way for Southcentral Alaska as we
transition from the generally cold, dry regime we`ve experienced for
the last week to one that features much more active, wetter/snowier,
and warmer weather.

First off, radar imagery shows precipitation lifting north from the
north-central Gulf of Alaska through the central and eastern
Chugach. Observations and webcams note snow (some rain in Cordova)
from about Valdez/Richardson Highway east, including up through
Thompson Pass, Edgerton Highway, Chisana and the Nabesna Rd, to the
Tok-Cutoff Highway. The snow winner thus far has been the RAWS site
at Tebay Lake which shows 5 inches of new snow depth. We don`t get
many reports in the eastern half of the Copper River Basin, so if
you`re reading this and located in any of those areas, we`d love to
hear how much snow you`ve received with this overnight system. Snow
in these parts will be coming to an end this morning as this system
shoves east.

As of 5am, latest surface analysis and satellite imagery shows a
rather strong 968mb (-and deepening) low is currently located near
Unimak Island and lifting north into the Bering. The attendant front
to this low is quickly pushing east across the AK Peninsula and
will soon be approaching and moving through Kodiak Island. As it
reaches the Kenai Peninsula today, cold air in place will allow
much of any precipitation to fall as snow, with the bulk of
precipitation on the windward (Gulf-facing) side of the Peninsula.
Still, a quick burst of snow may drop a quick half inch to around
of inch of snow for the western Kenai Peninsula and Anchorage on
north through the Mat-Su Valley later this afternoon. Otherwise,
expect north of a inch of snow for the Seward Highway along the
eastern Kenai, and a few inches possible for Portage and Whittier.

Heading into tonight into Monday, confidence has increased in a
solution much more favorable for snow for much of the area. Snow-
lovers rejoice. A triple point low along the front should move south
of the Kenai Peninsula and move into the Prince William Sound Monday
morning. Snow, potentially heavy at times, will overspread the
eastern side of the Peninsula with onshore flow. Relatively warm
onshore flow may yield a rain/snow mix at locations near sea-level
such as Whittier and those along Turnagain Arm. The deformation-like
band on the northwest side of the low will swiftly move across
the western Kenai Monday morning and then into Anchorage and the
Mat-Su Valley through the day. Heavy snow for a few hours is a
real possibility with this band. 2-6 inches is most likely for
many of these locations, including for Anchorage. Precipitation
will taper off Monday evening, but may linger into the night for
the central/eastern Chugach with onshore/upsloping flow.

Model agreement and thus confidence in forecast detail decreases
significantly on Tuesday. Another shortwave trough embedded within
deep southwest flow aloft should carry another surface low into the
Gulf of Alaska from the North Pacific. Models are beginning to place
this low into the north-central Gulf, which would bring another
round of snow (potentially low-elevation rain) to some areas.
Difficult/impossible to say where exactly, but another inch or two
may be in store for the western Kenai or even Anchorage and the Mat-
Su on Tuesday. Stay tuned for this one.

-Brown

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 to 3)...

A very active pattern continues in Southwest Alaska as a strong
North Pacific low moves into the East Bering. Powerful, gusty
winds have impacted the Alaska Peninsula with Cold Bay seeing
gusts to over 80 mph. A High Wind Warning has been issued in this
region due to the strong winds. Winds are expected to decrease as
the low moves northward.

As the low slowly makes its way north, it will bring gusty winds
and precipitation to the coastal regions of the Southwest
mainland. This precipitation will initially be in the form of
snowfall. However, the low will bring up warmer air from the
south, warming aloft temperatures faster than surface
temperatures. As a result, snowfall will begin transitioning to a
snow/freezing rain mix first in Bristol Bay. King Salmon and
communities around will see freezing rain begin this morning which
will continue until the early afternoon when surface temperatures
rise above freezing. The next area to receive a bout of freezing
rain will be Dillingham, which will see a freezing rain/snow mix
by Sunday afternoon. Surface temperatures will warm above freezing
by Sunday evening. The Kuskokwim Delta will see periods of
snowfall and gusty winds. Because the coast will have higher wind
speeds, visibility reducing blowing snow is likely. Due to this
threat, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued which lasts
until 3 AM Monday. As temperatures rise in the Kuskokwim Delta,
blowing snow will improve, but snowfall will begin to transition
to a rain/freezing rain mix which will last for a few hours early
Monday morning.

Once the low moves northward, winds will shift southerly by late
Monday morning. These southerly winds will still be gusty along
the coast, allowing for a chance for minor coastal flooding in the
Kuskokwim Delta Coast. However, the presence of shore fast ice
and a lower tide cycle will further reduce chances of this outcome
occurring. Precipitation will continue on Monday, but
temperatures aloft will cool below freezing, so freezing rain
chances will drop off. Wind and precipitation continues Tuesday as
the pattern remains active. By Wednesday, a frontal system pushes
into the mainland, bringing a swath of gusty southerly to south
southeasterly winds and precipitation. There may be some minor
coastal flooding concerns due to the duration of south
southeasterly winds into the Kuskokwim Coast. Due to warmer
temperatures, most precipitation will be rainfall with a rain/snow
mix in the Kuskokwim Delta. After this point, the pattern becomes
very uncertain will more lows on their way.

-JAR

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

By early next week, a broad upper level trough establishes itself
over the Bering Sea with several shortwaves rotating around the
base of the trough, sustaining the active storm track in the
North Pacific and Gulf. The long term begins as a front tracks
across the eastern Bering into Southwest Alaska, bringing small
craft to gale strength winds along the Alaska Peninsula and
Bristol Bay coast. As the front reaches the Southwest coast and
moves inland Wednesday into Thursday, southerly flow likely allows
precipitation to fall as rain along the coast, with snow
transitioning to rain for interior locations in the Kuskokwim
Delta and Bristol Bay.

This will be quickly followed by a stronger low lifting out of
the North Pacific towards the AKPen by Thursday morning, at which
this point deterministic model guidance begins to diverge. The GFS
and Canadian models show a stronger, potentially storm force low
tracking across the AKPen towards the Kuskokwim Delta before
pivoting east into the Gulf, while the ECMWF tracks a weaker low
straight into the Gulf from the North Pacific. Although details in
the overall strength and exact storm track will become more clear
in the coming days, strong southerly flow and plentiful moisture
can be expected regardless of which solution ultimately plays out.
Moderate rainfall and snow at higher elevations is expected along
the AKPen and Kodiak Island for Thursday, with heavy rain at sea
level and heavy mountain snow directed at the northern Gulf coast
Thursday into Friday. As the low lingers in the Gulf, showery and
generally unsettled weather continues in the Gulf and along the
Gulf coast through the weekend, while the deep southerly flow
associated with this system will result in temperatures trending
warmer across southern Alaska.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light northeast wind will generally
persist through at least the first half of the TAF period.
Clearing skies early this morning may allow for some fog
development, but as of 545am, no observations note development
thus far. Higher clouds will begin to overspread the area later
today as a front approaches. A quick bout of snow is likely this
evening with the initial wave with a period of MVFR CIGs/VIS
possible. Conditions improve a bit before deteriorating once again
tonight as snow becomes likely by Monday morning.

&&


$$