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FXAK68 PAFC 070147
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
447 PM AKST Thu Nov 6 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This
afternoon through Sunday)...

Much of Kenai Peninsula and Anchorage are under a Winter Weather
Advisory as a low pressure system moves into the northern Gulf
and curves along Western Kenai Peninsula through tomorrow. This
continues to be a tricky forecast; the forecast will be very
sensitive to the track of the low, but models have shown poor run-
to-run consistency. As such, updates may be made in the coming
hours as we continue to monitor this storm.

The general forecast picture remains on track. However, there have
been some notable updates since the previous forecast update.
Several new Winter Weather Advisories have been issued: for
potential travel-related impacts in Anchorage and along the Seward
Highway in Turnagain Arm, for snow amounts in Portage, and for
snow and blowing snow in Whittier. There remains uncertainty with
snow amounts in these areas, especially for Portage as this is a
location where models tend to overdo precipitation. For Whittier,
the question will be when winds switch eastward and warmer air
moves in off Prince William Sound. While winds remain easterly,
colder air will help keep precipitation as snow in Whittier, with
gusty winds potentially leading to visibility reductions in
blowing snow. Similarly, the forecast remains challenging for
Seward and the question of how much snow will accumulate before
precipitation changes over to rain. With forecast confidence being
lower for Seward, have opted to maintain a Special Weather
Statement for now.

For more details, please see the previous forecast discussion
(lightly edited) below: A potent surface low will move rapidly
north today with its occluded front swinging to the Southcentral
coast by late this afternoon. Additional moisture will stream into
Prince William Sound (PWS) and the Kenai Peninsula through the
day along this frontal boundary. With low pressure remaining south
of PWS, an offshore flow should persist across the Kenai
Peninsula. This will likely allow for the bulk of the
precipitation to fall as snow, even along the immediate coast. The
snow may be heavy at times through the late morning and afternoon
hours from Portage to Seward. For coastal locations, there may be
just enough warm air advection to allow for a rain/snow mix at
times, limiting snow accumulations. For interior locations along
the Seward Highway, though, several inches of accumulation are
likely, with the highest amounts in Turnagain Pass.

The snow shifts west with the trough through the day with snow
developing from the Western Kenai north toward Talkeetna by late
this afternoon. Snow amounts will be light farther north, but
about 2 to 6 inches of snow is possible across the Anchorage Bowl
with 4 to 8 inches of snow possible across the western Kenai
Peninsula through Friday morning. Northerly winds will also
increase through this evening, and this may help keep drier air in
place near the surface across West Anchorage south to Nikiski,
limiting accumulations there.

The surface low will track south of Seward by early Friday
morning with its cold front likely lifting into PWS later Friday
morning. There is still some uncertainty with the placement and
track of the front, with the magnitude of winds and precipitation
types across PWS and the eastern Kenai Peninsula highly dependent
on the exact track. Nonetheless, winds will become quite strong
for Seward and Resurrection Bay tonight, with gusts to 50 mph
possible, as the low approaches.

Resuspended ash from the 1912 Katmai-Novarupta eruption can be
seen moving over Shelikof Strait towards Kodiak Island on
satellite. This will continue into Friday as winds remain strong
due to cold air advection south of the low. A Special Weather
Statement has been issued for potential ash resettling over Kodiak
Island. Winds may gust to close to 65 mph across Shelikof Strait.

The low will stall Friday morning before drifting south. Colder
air in the wake of the front will increase instability and allow
for snow showers to linger across the Kenai Peninsula through
Friday. A secondary shortwave moving from the Alaska Panhandle
into the Copper River Basin will likely bring another round of
light snow for the eastern half of Southcentral late Friday into
Saturday.

-TM/KC

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Saturday evening)...

Currently, a mildly active pattern across Southwest and Bering
continues into the end of the work week. Gusty northerly winds out
of the southern gaps and passes of the Alaska Peninsula will
continue tonight through Friday, with gusts over marine areas
southeast of Chignik may reach up to 60 mph at times.
Additionally, a weak trough is moving steadily eastward through
the Bering, bringing a front of northerly winds and periods of
precipitation along the front, reaching the Pribilofs and
Nikolski/Unalaska by early Friday morning. Precipitation should
come to an end by the time the colder air settles in, so snowfall
is not expected with this weak system. The front is expected to
weaken further and dissipate before it reaches the Southwest
coastline.

The focus shifts to the Western Bering Sea as a very strong low
pressure system moves in. It will be preceded by a front with
hurricane force winds moving over the Western Aleutians. A High
Wind Warning has been issued for Shemya and Amchitka for noon
Friday through Saturday morning, please see product for more
information. The strong front will spread eastward, moving over
Adak with storm- force southerly winds initially, diminishing to
gale-force Friday night. Along the front, also expect light-to-
moderate rainfall rates. The front will retain its strength from
there, advancing steadily eastward moving over Unalaska and the
southern Alaska Peninsula by Saturday night. Channeled gusty
southerly winds through favored gaps and passes on the northern
side of the Alaska Peninsula, such as Cold Bay, may see locally
higher winds.

The front will then move over the Southwest Alaska coastline,
including the Kuskokwim Delta coast. Strong southeasterly winds at
the time of arrival is expected to push coastal waters onshore and
raise waters 2 to 3 feet beyond the normal highest tide beginning
Saturday evening. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for the
Kuskokwim Delta coast at that time, please see that product for
more information. Initially, freezing temperatures over the coast
will promote a period of light snowfall as the front moves over.
Coupled with the strong onshore winds, periods of blowing snow are
possible, but precise estimations on visibility reductions are
difficult to determine at this point. Stay tuned for the latest
info on this rapidly evolving system, and potential impacts for
your area.

-CL

&&



.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

The long term continues to remain active as several storms
continue to progress through the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska. By
the beginning of the long term period early next week, the strong
low in the Bering continues to weaken ahead of a ridge entering
the western Bering while a triple point low forms along its
decaying front in the North Pacific. As the ridge continues to
push east in the Bering, there is moderate confidence that the
triple point low will curve into the Gulf through early next week.
However, differences in the track across the Gulf continues to
make it difficult to ascertain how far into Southcentral
precipitation will go, with the bulk of potentially stronger winds
and precipitation likely remaining along the coast and over the
Gulf.

By late Monday into early Tuesday morning, a strong low moving
along the Kamchatka coast will begin pushing its front into the
western Bering Sea. For now, model guidance continues to be
consistent with winds along the front remaining at sustained high-
end gales to storm force through Tuesday for the western and
central Aleutians. As this front pushes into the eastern Bering
and into the Southwest Alaska coast, reasonably good model
agreement suggests a more rapid weakening of the front as the
parent low continues to spin along the Kamchatka coast through
midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will quickly deteriorate to MVFR cigs and
vis this afternoon as snow continues to work in. Visibility may
drop to IFR for a short period in snow showers, but cigs should
remain 1000 ft. Northerly winds will also increase tonight night
with gusts up to 25 kt possible. The stronger winds may help keep
drier air near the surface and reduce the potential for any
significant snow accumulation. However, if snow does accumulate,
occasional drifting snow is possible due to the gusty winds.
Steady snow and gusty winds will likely taper off by Friday
morning.

&&


$$