168
FXAK68 PAFC 251303
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
503 AM AKDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3)...

A deep upper low will pass over the western portions of
Southcentral today, producing widespread light to moderate
rainfall. After some time without significant rain, it looks
likely that the Mat-Su Valleys, Anchorage and the Kenai Peninsula
will receive 0.25 to 1.0 inches of rain through late this evening.
The Copper Valley will likely get some afternoon showers and
possibly thunderstorms, but coverage will be more spotty. As the
upper low moves over the Kenai this afternoon, a lee-side low will
develop near Seward. This will reinvigorate northwesterly winds
through the Barren Islands and Kodiak, and strengthen
southeasterlies in the Sound. By Saturday morning the low will be
in the central Gulf, bringing an end to precipitation but
strengthening marine winds to widespread Small Craft Advisories
for the coastal waters in the Gulf.

Clouds are likely to linger on Saturday, but may burn off by late
afternoon and evening. For Sunday, expect warm to hot
temperatures, with some areas like the Copper Valley and Mat-Su
nearing 80 degrees.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Sunday)...

An upper low tracking across interior Southwest Alaska and a
broad ridge over the Central Bering Sea continue to serve as the
two major factors to the weather pattern for Southwestern Alaska.
Rainfall over the Kuskokwim Delta has become much more scattered
and will continue to taper off throughout the morning hours as the
main core of precipitation slides eastwards today with the low
dropping further to the southeast. Expect rain to continue through
this morning across northern Bristol Bay and the Lower Kuskokwim
Valley. A chance for showers lingers through this afternoon into
this evening for areas along the western Alaska Range as the low
exits the region and enters the Gulf of Alaska. Gusty
northwesterly gap winds through the eastern Aleutians and AKPen
are expected this afternoon through Saturday evening as the low
enters the Gulf. The strongest winds are expected along the
southern AKPen east of Chignik, with gusts likely reaching gale-
force. Small- craft northwesterly winds are also anticipated for
the Bristol Bay marine area, lasting from this afternoon through
Saturday evening.

The ridge over the Bering continues to strengthen and remain
nearly stationary, allowing for the persistent low stratus and fog
to stick around. Following the passage of the trough and it`s
exit to the southeast, the ridge will fill in steadily behind and
expand its influence eastward, allowing for the low stratus and
fog to spread across the eastern Aleutians, reaching the Alaska
Peninsula by Sunday. Weather across the Southwest mainland will
quiet down following the trough passage, allowing for clearing
skies and drier conditions Saturday into Sunday for the Lower
Kuskokwim Valley and portions of interior Bristol Bay. Weak
disturbances and a stream of North Pacific moisture rotating
around the periphery of the ridge keeps rain chances around for
the Kuskokwim Delta coast and Nunivak Island for Saturday and into
Sunday morning.

-JH/CL

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

Few updates to the long term forecast since yesterday`s
discussion, though a potentially impactful storm could move into
the Bering Sea as early as next Thursday.

The features to note for the long-term forecast will be a ridge
over the Bering Sea, and a low lingering in the Gulf of Alaska
through the duration of the forecast period. With the ridge,
expect lingering fog and low stratus across the Bering Sea until
the ridge begins to exit into Southwest Alaska early next week.
Behind the ridge, expect windier and wetter conditions as a front
moves in. We`re monitoring the potential for a low pressure system
to intensify as it moves into the Bering Sea on Thursday,
bringing the potential for gales. Robust moisture advection with
this low could also bring moderate to heavy rain. It`s too early
to say for now where this storm will track, but it will bear
watching as we get closer to the end of the month.

Otherwise, for the Southern Mainland, expect unsettled weather as
upper level shortwaves rotate around the low in the Gulf and
emanate from a longwave trough over Northern Alaska.

-KC

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...An upper level low dropping across Southcentral will bring
rainfall and deteriorated conditions today. Ceilings will lower
to MVFR by mid-morning with periods of IFR during more intense
showers. A return to VFR conditions is expected by tonight.

&&


$$