929
FXAK68 PAFC 120145
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
445 PM AKST Tue Nov 11 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This
afternoon through Friday afternoon)...

Relatively quiet and cold weather in the near-term as weaker
surface features move through. By late Thursday night/early Friday
morning, a low near the Alaska Peninsula pushes its front into
the Gulf, likely bringing stronger winds and higher precipitation
rates. Models continue to struggle with the track of this low,
with some solutions showing the low quickly exiting south and,
thus, exerting little overall influence on Southcentral weather
late this week.

Diving into the details... a shortwave trough will eject into the
Gulf of Alaska late tonight. Renewed onshore flow coincident with
the remnant moisture from the previous low will allow the
development of rain/snow across the Prince William Sound with
showers advecting into the adjacent mountains and possibly into
the coastal towns such as Whittier. Accumulation continue to look
light.

Elsewhere across Southcentral, mostly clear, calm, and
meteorologically-quiescent conditions should prevail through
tomorrow. Aurora watchers tonight should beware of fog/low
stratus potential near open water and in the Copper River Valley.
Otherwise, cloud cover spreads across the area later tomorrow
as a decaying front moves over Kodiak Island, with little to no
precipitation expected for most of the Mainland with this front.

-Brown/KC

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Radar imagery shows light snowfall quickly diminishing across the
Kuskokwim Delta this afternoon as the weak surface low over the
YK-Delta dissipates. Drier air in the eastern Bering and along the
Southwest coast has allowed for skies to clear out from Nunivak
Island down through the Bristol Bay coast. Low stratus and
flurries likely persist through this evening for interior
Southwest Alaska, with light winds allowing for the possible
development of patchy fog across the northern Kuskokwim Delta and
interior Bristol Bay overnight.

Meanwhile, a northwest to southeast oriented gale force front
remains draped across the western Bering through the central
Aleutians this afternoon, bringing consistent gale force gusts and
periods of moderate rainfall. Satellite imagery is beginning to
show an elongation and weakening of the front as its vertically
stacked parent low remains nearly stationary in the far western
Bering just off the coast of Kamchatka. The front weakens to small
craft strength as it pushes east and reaches the Alaska Peninsula
and Pribilof Islands late this evening through early Wednesday
morning. The front nears the Southwest Alaska coast by late
Wednesday morning into early Wednesday afternoon. Models have come
into better agreement on a compact surface low spinning up in the
vicinity of Kuskokwim Bay and Nunivak Island as the front quickly
falls apart as it progresses inland. Light snow is expected to
spread across Southwest Alaska, with 1-2" expected along the
Bristol Bay and Kuskokwim Delta coasts with lesser amounts farther
inland through Thursday morning. The aforementioned compact low
will allow gusty winds to persist for the Kuskokwim Delta through
Wednesday night, allowing for periods of blowing snow and reduced
visibilities until the low moves inland and quickly dissipates.
The greatest potential for blowing snow will be mainly confined to
coastal areas.

Things look to stay mostly quiet across Southwest Alaska and the
Bering Sea for much of the day Thursday. By Thursday evening,
west-northwest winds along the Aleutian Chain begin to pick up as
a gale-force low lifts out of the North Pacific towards the AKPen.
The low begins to slow in its track and stall over the AKPen
Friday afternoon, before quickly pivoting to the southeast into
the southern Gulf Friday evening into Saturday. Elevated easterly
winds are expected across the AKPen and Bristol Bay waters ahead
of this system. Stronger west-northwest winds enhanced by cold air
advection on the back side of this system will bring the
potential for storm force gusts across the Eastern Aleutians
through Friday afternoon. Heading into the weekend, the next low
and potentially gale force front reaches the western Aleutians.
Shortly after, this system begins to interact and phase with a
much stronger North Pacific low as it lifts across the Aleutians
and into the Southern Bering Saturday into Sunday with the
potential for the storm to deepen to a sub-950 mb low. There are a
lot of details to iron out with this system and any impacts
related to the storm will be highly dependent on storm track, in
which confidence remains low at this time. Please stay tuned and
monitor the forecast for this upcoming system.

-JH

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

The long term period begins at the start of the weekend with a
broad trough over the Bering and a second trough located over the
Gulf of Alaska. The latter trough shifts eastward into Canada as
energy digs it southeastward, taking the trough with it by Sunday
afternoon. General high pressure will continue across Southcentral
with dry and cool conditions anticipated into early next week for
the region. To the west and within the Bering Sea trough, a near-
stationary upper-low is forecast to remain mostly in place.

Of greater interest will be the arrival of a North Pacific low
across the Central Aleutians into the southern Bering on Saturday.
as it rotates into the broader Bering Sea trough. This low will
bring an abundance of moisture with it, originating from the South
China Sea, and an above normal chance for high winds through the
Aleutians on Saturday. Deterministic models and ensembles have
been hinting at significant deepening of the low as it moves
through the Aleutian Chain. However, there remains continued
uncertainty with exactly where this low will track once into the
Bering and how much the low itself will intensify. The latest
trend in forecast models take the low further west while it
rotates around the broad trough over the Bering Sea. Regardless of
the track, enhanced winds and heavy precipitation will be
possible. The threat of high winds quickly transitions from the
Aleutians to the Pribilof Islands on Sunday as the low lifts to
the north and northwest.

Even further out in the forecast models are hinting at yet
another North Pacific low to track into the Eastern Aleutians late
Monday into Tuesday. The passage of multiple lows moving into the
Bering with persistent southerly flow, will likely result in a
warming trend for Southwest Alaska. Above normal chances for
precipitation will develop Sunday into Monday as a front tracks
into the coast.


-BL

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...The only real concern over the next day is the potential
for fog and/or low stratus. A small area of fog developed along
Knik Arm this morning and is persisting into the afternoon
without moving much. With light north-northeast winds overnight
and Wednesday morning, there is the potential for any fog/stratus
that develops again to drift over the terminal overnight through
tomorrow morning.

&&


$$