285
FXAK68 PAFC 310210
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
610 PM AKDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Sunday)...

It appears summer has returned to Southcentral for the time being.
An upper level ridge axis continues to slowly drift eastwards across
the southern Mainland this afternoon, leading to warm and mostly
clear conditions across nearly the entire outlook area. Similar to
yesterday, valley temperatures have warmed well into the 60s and
70s, and even most of the upper level cloud cover spilling over
the top of the ridge has begun to break up. Winds also remain
light, except for sea breezes in the ballpark of 10 mph now
getting going once again along the coast.

The next few afternoons into this weekend will look much like
today, with highs in the 70s to perhaps even 80 degrees in all of
the warmest spots, such as Willow and Sterling. Assuming we
continue to see minimal cloud cover, there will still be quite a
large diurnal range in temperatures each day. Dry, clear and still
conditions will be optimal for rapid radiational cooling each of
the next couple overnights, and lows could dip all the way into
the 40s in many places as a result. The one mode of uncertainty
will be how the marine layer and associated low stratus behaves
over the next few days. Flow moving up the Cook Inlet could drag
low stratus into places like Homer and Kenai, with around a 40%
chance for low clouds to develop along this corridor on Saturday
morning. Otherwise, expect mostly clear skies and warm afternoon
temperatures to persist through Sunday.

By late Sunday, the outer reaches of the next system and notable
pattern change could begin to encroach on Southcentral in the
form of increasing cloud cover. A much wetter pattern could set in
by early next week, so take advantage of the warmth and sun while
it lasts!

-AS

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING
SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Thursday through Sunday)...

Satellite imagery shows a widespread area of fog and low stratus
across the eastern Bering, and it can also be seen banked up
against the Bering side of the Alaska Peninsula and funneling
through some of the gaps there. With an upper level ridge in
place, Southwest Alaska (outside of Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim
Delta Coast) have seen partly cloudy skies today with temperatures
warming into the upper 60s and low 70s. Farther west, the first
of two Bering low pressure systems we are tracking over the short
term is making its debut across the Western Aleutians as its front
tracks eastward across the Central Aleutians. With the front,
south of its triple point, a strong theta-e ridge aligning with a
digging 500 mb trough and the left exit region of a 300 mb 100 kt
jet streak has kicked off a few lightning strikes this afternoon
across coastal and offshore marine zones.

As the upper level trough continues eastward across the southern
Bering and Central Aleutians, it will displace the ridge in place
over Southwest Alaska and nudge it eastward to over Southcentral
Alaska. In response, the surface low quickly translates across the
southern Bering with a quick hitting round of rainfall for the
Aleutian Chain. The marine lightning threat decreases (but is non-
zero) through Friday morning as the theta-e ridge weakens and
becomes less defined. For mariners, the lightning hazard has been
reflected in marine forecasts with "isolated thunderstorm"
wording. With increasing clouds ahead of the low pressure system
through Friday morning, daytime highs for Friday across Southwest
Alaska are expected to be a couple degrees cooler than what has
been observed today.

With the ridging aloft anchored over Southcentral Friday
afternoon, this feature will essentially block the Bering low from
progressing any farther eastward from the Alaska Peninsula and
instead sends the low southeastward into the North Pacific and out
of the region. Transient upper level ridging returns to the
Bering and Aleutians Sunday morning out ahead of the next system
that will affect the Bering/Aleutian Chain. A Kamchatka low
approaches the Western Aleutians heading into Sunday afternoon
with small craft winds with gusts up to gale force. A strong
theta-e ridge accompanies its front, but there is lower confidence
(20-30%) of marine lightning with this system, primarily because
model guidance depicts the upper level dynamic forcing is
misaligned with the theta-e ridge. Due to these negating factors,
as of now the marine lighting threat is low, but still non-zero
with Sunday`s system. Stay tuned.

-AM

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

An increasingly active weather pattern is expected through the
long term forecast period as the upper-level pattern becomes more
progressive. An upper low settling into western Alaska early in
the week will maintain broad southwesterly flow across much of the
state, allowing several shortwaves to rotate through the flow and
support periods of rain and unsettled conditions.

On Monday, widespread rain will continue across Southwest Alaska
and the Alaska Peninsula while precipitation gradually expands
into Kodiak Island and Southcentral Alaska. A tightening pressure
gradient around the upper low will also bring breezy to locally
gusty southerly winds to portions of the Alaska Peninsula, Kodiak
Island, and adjacent marine waters. Temperatures across
Southcentral will trend closer to seasonal normals as cloud cover
increases and rainfall becomes more widespread.

By Tuesday, moist southwesterly flow will keep scattered to
widespread showers across much of Southcentral, Kodiak Island, and
Southwest Alaska, with locally steadier rainfall possible along
the Gulf-facing terrain where upslope enhancement develops. While
embedded shortwaves will continue to move through the broader
cyclonic flow, confidence remains high that unsettled weather will
persist through the day.

Wednesday continues the unsettled pattern as the upper low weakens
only slowly while lingering over western Alaska. Additional
disturbances rotating around the circulation will support another
round of showers across much of southern Alaska, though rainfall
coverage and intensity will likely become more scattered compared
to earlier in the week. Breezy conditions may persist across
coastal locations and marine areas as the pressure gradient
remains in place.

By Thursday, guidance suggests the upper low generally shifts
eastward into the Interior while broad troughing remains over much
of mainland Alaska. This will keep cool, showery conditions in
place across Southcentral and Southwest Alaska, though rainfall
may become more intermittent as the strongest forcing begins to
pull away. Model differences increase regarding the exact
evolution and timing of individual shortwaves late in the period,
but confidence remains high that the overall pattern will remain
cooler, unsettled, and periodically wet through the end of the
forecast period.

LM

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&


$$