421
FXAK68 PAFC 081446
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
546 AM AKST Fri Nov 8 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Sunday)...

An area of low pressure continues to weaken right off the eastern
coast of Kodiak Island with latest surface analysis showing the
pressure has fallen to about 980mb, down nearly 20mb from this
time yesterday. Heavy precipitation persists in the northern Gulf
of Alaska and Prince William Sound, with general onshore flow
pushing the precipitation into the Kenai Peninsula and areas
adjacent to the Sound. Webcams along the Seward Highway show snow
falling as far west as Summit Lake. High resolution ensemble
forecast (HREF) mean shows an additional 0.2 to 0.4" of liquid
equivalent falling in those areas today which would result in
about 2 to 4 inches of snowfall, but near-surface temperatures
hovering at or just above freezing are likely to limit overall
snow accumulation today.

Elsewhere and otherwise, a ridge axis nosing into southcentral AK
across the Copper River Basin to the Susitna Valley will help
maintain a decently strong, though weakening, pressure gradient.
Winds across the Mat-Su Valley are notably weaker than this time
yesterday, but the gradient should remain strong enough to
maintain breezy conditions downvalley and downinlet today.
Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail with a chance of the sun
peeking through

The Gulf low dissipates entirely on Saturday with the approach of
the next system. Quiet weather is in store for much of southcentral
Alaska this week as the next low remains far enough south such that
any additional precipitation after Saturday should be confined to
the waters, as well as Kodiak Island. This low will bring gale-force
easterlies across much of the Gulf of Alaska and about an inch or
more of precipitation to Kodiak Island late Saturday through
Sunday.

-Brown

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Sunday)...

A North Pacific low approaching the Central Aleutians will be the
primary weather maker through the weekend. Another North Pacific
low approaches the Aleutians on Sunday, but it remains far enough
south that the strongest winds and heaviest rain will remain over
the ocean. While there remain some model differences for the first
system as a triple point low forms from tonight into Saturday
morning, any shifts in the forecast will yield only minor changes
to wind speed and precipitation amounts for the Eastern Aleutians
and Alaska Peninsula.

Overall, the biggest impact from the first storm will likely be
gusty winds. The Central Aleutians (Adak and Atka) will be the
first to see strong winds, with gusts to 50-60 mph from this
morning through evening. As the front moves eastwards through
today, the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula will see a quick
burst of gusty southeasterly winds from tonight through Saturday
morning, with gusts to 40-50 mph. The strongest winds for the
Eastern Aleutians, however, are actually expected from Saturday
afternoon through late Saturday night as colder air surges in
behind the departing low, with northwesterly gusts 50-60 mph. The
Pribilof Islands and much of Southwest Alaska will be spared the
worst of these strong winds, but expect winds to pick up as the
surface pressure gradient tightens with the approaching low.

Aside from winds, expect light to moderate precipitation along the
Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula as the front moves through. While
there may initially be snow as the front moves in, expect
precipitation to quickly transition to rain or a rain/snow mix.
With the front expected to remain south of Naknek/King Salmon,
areas north in Southwest Alaska will remain dry, with
temperatures dropping to towards the teens and single digits as
northerly flow ushers in cooler air.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

Starting Monday, the low pressure system that had been moving
through the Gulf will finally be out of the picture- just in time
for a new low to move in. This one, however, looks to take a more
southerly track, keeping Southcentral relatively dry with light
winds. Temperatures will trend cooler, and more inland locations
could see lows in the mid teens by Tuesday and Wednesday night.
Southwest Alaska should see similar conditions, while the
Aleutians will be more affected by this system just to their
south. Here, light precipitation is likely and gale-force wind
gusts are possible.

On Wednesday, some ridging starts to build across western Alaska
ahead of a deep low entering the Bering Sea. There is model
disagreement about the exact track and intensity of this storm,
but it has the potential to be impactful to Southwest Alaska,
specifically the Kuskokwim Delta. Strong southwest winds on
Thursday are the main concern here, and we will have to keep an
eye on how this system progresses in the coming days.

-TK

&&.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Northerly winds around 10 kt
with occasional higher gusts are expected through Saturday morning.


&&


$$