464
FXAK68 PAFC 080159
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
459 PM AKST Thu Nov 7 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

The center of the storm-force low is just off the eastern coast of
Kodiak Island this afternoon with the next shortwave trough rotating
up into the northern Gulf. Widespread precipitation remains ongoing
across the eastern Kenai Peninsula, Prince William Sound, and
northern Gulf coast, though it has started to wind down as the front
weakens and moves inland. However, as this next wave lifts north,
another round of precipitation will impact these same areas this
evening. Lower elevations of Kodiak Island will see rounds of light
to moderate rainfall continue through Friday night before shortwave
ridging nudges the weakening low towards Prince William Sound by
Saturday morning resulting in unsettled weather continuing for the
northern Gulf coastal areas and the Sound throughout the upcoming
weekend.

Observations this afternoon show that temperatures continue to hover
in the mid 30s over Turnagain pass. Lower elevations of the pass
have seen mainly rain, but the top of the pass near Summit Lake has
seen either a mix or snow for much of the day. This trend looks to
continue, but with a degree or two drop this evening and
overnight...will likely see some minor snow accumulations for higher
elevations along the pass by tomorrow morning as this next band of
precipitation moves through tonight.

For much of inland Southcentral, ridging building across the Copper
Basin westwards towards the Susitna Valley will make for relatively
quiet weather with more seasonable temperatures through the weekend.

- PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Saturday)...

Northerly winds continue across the Bering Sea and Alaska
Peninsula this afternoon but subside overnight, while another
area of low pressure approaches south of the Aleutian Chain.
Improved model agreement, has raised confidence in the storm`s
track and resultant impacts through the weekend.

A weakening, vertically stacked low east of Kodiak Island will
slowly migrate into the Northern Gulf by Saturday morning. While
it lingers, light rain/snow showers will be drawn across the
Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula overnight, followed by
colder, drier air on Friday. Temperatures across the interior and
along the Kuskokwim River will gradually decreases through the
weekend, dipping into the low 20s and teens at night.

A low moving eastward along the south side of the Chain brings
back wind and rain to the Aleutian Islands, Alaska Peninsula and
Bering Sea Friday through Saturday. Latest model runs indicate an
expansive system with several smaller low pressure centers
forming and dissipating as they circle a drier core. This system
has an easterly track that remains south of the Chain, with a
front that reaches into the Southern Bering and projects southeast
ahead of the system. For Saturday morning, one of these smaller
low pressure centers forms in the vicinity of Unalaska, producing
widespread 30 to 40 mph winds across the Pribilof Islands and all
of Bristol Bay, with 40 to 55 mph winds north and south of the
Chain on Saturday, which shift from easterly to northerly by the
afternoon. This shift, in addition to upper-level cold air
advection, may intensify gap winds above what models currently
depict. Gusts in the 60 mph range may be possible. Up to an inch
of rain is expected for the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula before
the entire system finally departs for the Gulf by Sunday morning.


&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

Starting Monday, the low pressure system that had been moving
through the Gulf will finally be out of the picture- just in time
for a new low to move in. This one, however, looks to take a more
southerly track, keeping Southcentral relatively dry with light
winds. Temperatures will trend cooler, and more inland locations
could see lows in the mid teens by Tuesday and Wednesday night.
Southwest Alaska should see similar conditions, while the
Aleutians will be more affected by this system just to their
south. Here, light precipitation is likely and gale-force wind
gusts are possible.

On Wednesday, some ridging starts to build across western Alaska
ahead of a deep low entering the Bering Sea. There is model
disagreement about the exact track and intensity of this storm,
but it has the potential to be impactful to Southwest Alaska,
specifically the Kuskokwim Delta. Strong southwest winds on
Thursday are the main concern here, and we will have to keep an
eye on how this system progresses in the coming days.

-TK

&&.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Northerly winds around 10 kt
with occasional higher gusts are expected through Friday.

&&


$$