442
FXAK68 PAFC 110132
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
432 PM AKST Mon Nov 10 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A ridge of high pressure continues to promote clearer conditions
across Southcentral Alaska, but an exiting low pressure system in
the northeastern Gulf of Alaska is spreading some high level
clouds over the area. The relation between these clouds, and
temperature as seen cooler temperatures overnight, with the lower
level of the atmosphere clear to cool more rapidly than if there
were an insulating low level cloud deck. Overnight low
temperatures have been steadily declining and will continue to do
so for many locations across Southcentral as the clearer skies
remain. Colder air is draining out of Southcentral basins through
gaps such as Resurrection Bay, Passage Canal, and Valdez Arm,
with gusts near 40 mph this evening and Tuesday morning. Thompson
Pass and the Copper River Delta may similarly gusty winds through
Tuesday afternoon with colder air pulled down out of the Copper
River Basin. Gusty winds through these favored gaps and passes
will diminish gradually through Tuesday into Tuesday evening.

The trough in the northern Gulf may bring some snow showers to
Cordova by early Wednesday. Otherwise, expect generally clear and
cold conditions, with some high clouds and areas of fog, for much
of Southcentral by midweek.

-CL

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Currently, a small low is moving into the Kuskokwim Delta region.
As a result, scattered snow showers are moving through the region.
Snow or rain/snow showers and low stratus/fog are also present in
the Bristol Bay region. The low will slowly move through the
Kuskokwim Delta through the night before dissipating Tuesday
afternoon. Steadier snow is expected Monday night/Tuesday morning
before this happens. Meanwhile, a frontal system is pushing into
the Bering from the west. A long, vertical swath of gale force
winds and precipitation will accompany the front as it moves over
the Western Aleutians Tuesday morning. The front will move
eastward toward the mainland through the course of the day on
Tuesday, arriving at the Pribilof Islands and the Eastern
Aleutians by Tuesday night/Early Wednesday morning. The front will
push onshore by Wednesday afternoon, bringing elevated winds and
initially snowfall. Higher winds near the Kuskokwim Coast and
Nunivak Island may lead to areas of blowing snow. Warmer air will
accompany this front, so precipitation will likely transition to
rain/snow, especially over Bristol Bay.

By Thursday morning, the low will dissipate inland. after this
point, a ridge builds into the Bering, limiting winds and
decreasing precipitation chances. As Thursday progresses, a low
south of the Alaska Peninsula will allow for some increased wind
speeds. Also, a trough will arrive behind the ridge in the Western
Aleutians allowing for higher wind speeds and precipitation.
Looking quite a bit forward to the weekend has a strong North
Pacific low moving into the Bering. This will likely bring gusty
winds and moderate to heavy precipitation somewhere in the
Aleutians. Uncertainty is high at this time with its track,
strength, and timing, so continue to monitor the forecast for
updates as the evolution of the low becomes more clear.

-JAR


&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

A vertically stacked low over the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula for the second half of this week slides east into the
Gulf of Alaska by Saturday. Gusty westerly to northwesterly winds
ranging from small craft to gales along with diminishing
precipitation are anticipated on the back side of this system for
the Eastern Aleutians and AKPen. For Southwest and much of
Southcentral Alaska, seasonably cool temperatures and relatively
quiet weather is expected Friday into Saturday, with the greatest
chances for periods of precipitation remaining mainly along the
northern Gulf coast and Kodiak Island as the low tracks towards
Southeast Alaska.

The bigger story continues to be a much stronger storm lifting
out of the North Pacific towards the Central Aleutians this
weekend. Deterministic models and ensemble guidance are loosely in
agreement for a sub 950 mb low reaching the Aleutian Chain
sometime Saturday into Sunday as it merges with an upper level
trough in the western Bering Sea. Confidence is currently high
that as the storm arrives, the Aleutian Chain is likely to see
moderate to heavy rain and sustained high end gale to storm force
winds through the weekend. As we head further into the weekend and
into early next week, there remains a high degree of uncertainty
with regards to the track and intensification of the low as it
tracks across the Aleutians and into the southern Bering as model
spread significantly increases by this point. While most guidance
generally favors the storm remaining over the southern Bering, the
GFS continues to depict the storm deepening to a sub 940 mb low
and tracking north into the central Bering. If this scenario were
to play out, impacts such as heavy rain, a prolonged period of
strong south-southeasterly winds, and high seas would affect much
more of the region including the Pribilof Islands as well as the
Kuskokwim Delta coast through the early part of next week. The
impacts from this storm will be highly dependent on the storm
track, and we continue to closely monitor and update the forecast
as confidence in the strength and track of the storm increases.

-JH

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR winds and ceilings to persist through the TAF Period.
With the departure of an area of low pressure over the Gulf, high
pressure will settle over Southcentral Alaska. This should allow
for drier conditions, accompanied by light winds and VFR ceilings.

-BL

&&
$$