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FXAK68 PAFC 051305
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
505 AM AKDT Fri Jun 5 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Sunday)...

The ridge that has been over Southcentral Alaska the past two
days is beginning to break down as an upper level trough
extending from the Arctic low into Southwest Alaska edges towards
Southcentral. For today, there will still be a good amount of
sunshine and warm temperatures for the Cook Inlet, Mat-Su and
Kodiak regions. The Copper river Basin will see more cloud cover
with showers likely developing over the mountains by this
afternoon. Those showers could start to develop over the western
slopes of the Talkeetna Mountains and Alaska Range this afternoon
so the northern Susitna Valley might see that sunshine end a
little sooner than farther to the south.

Along the north Gulf coast, there is an area of low stratus that
have moved into the Cordova area and is trying to sneak into
Prince William Sound as well as the Seward area. It is very
difficult to project exactly what this stratus will do, however
the low clouds will likely push just a little bit into Prince
WIlliam Sound through Hinchinbrook entrance and then dissipate in
the airmass over the Sound. Seward is a different story as the
sea breeze will entrain the stratus and in the southerly flow and
bring it into Seward this morning. By mid-afternoon, even though
there will be a sea breeze, it is likely the stratus will
dissipate as the entire eastern Kenai Peninsula warms and the
stratus retreats to just offshore.

By Saturday, the ridge will have broken down to bring widespread
mid-level clouds to Southcentral with more showers activity,
especially over the mountains. The Turnagain Arm winds is also
expected to develop overnight Friday night and continue through
Saturday and weaken on Sunday. This will bring those gusty
southeasterly winds into southwest Anchorage tonight and
across the Anchorage Bowl on Saturday.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Sunday evening)...

Seasonably calm weather along with appreciably lower fire weather
concerns will be the main story through the fast-approaching
weekend. A weak upper level trough is progressing into Southwest
this morning, helping to usher slightly cooler air southwards into
the region. To the west, a blocking high continues to sit in place
across the central and western Bering Sea. A few patches of low
stratus and fog have formed around the eastern periphery of the
ridge overnight and to the south of the shortwave trough heading
into Southwest. Low cloud cover and fog has recently advected all
the way up the northern side of the AKPen along a stretch of
southwesterly low level flow, now beginning to creep into parts
of Bristol Bay. Farther to the south and west, a nearly stalled
front tied to a North Pacific low is beginning to send areas of
rain into the central portions of the Aleutian Chain.

A quiet pattern will continue for just about the entire outlook
area as we head into the weekend. A slow but steady cooling trend
will begin today across Southwest, with most places not likely to
get much above 70 for afternoon highs. Cloud cover and shower
chances will steadily increase for Saturday and Sunday as
multiple reinforcing shortwave troughs dig southeast into the area
from the northern Bering. Meanwhile, the North Pacific low and
attendant front will slide east towards the Gulf by Saturday. Weak
ridging will persist across the western Bering, yielding dry
conditions and weak north to northwesterly winds around 10 to 20
mph across most of the Aleutian Chain and Pribilofs through early
next week.

-AS

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

The long term forecast for early next week remains generally on
track, with an unsettled pattern in store for much of Alaska.
Synoptically, there will be Arctic troughing over the interior,
ridging over the Bering, and a North Pacific lows tracking through
the southern Gulf.

The Arctic low meanders over the northern tier of the state, with
shortwave pushes occasionally scraping the southern interior.
Expect intermittent light showery conditions across the mainland
and southern coast, with mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies.
These pushes of cool air will bring temperatures closer to
seasonal averages across much of Southcentral. With persistent
ridging over the Bering, temperatures will likely remain at or
above average for the AKPen and Aleutians, with mostly dry
conditions.

Another North Pacific low will likely build just South of the
Western Aleutians by around Tuesday, however, there remains a
significant amount of model spread regarding the progression of
this system. The GFS solution is an outlier with a much more
progressive track, bringing it into the Gulf by about midweek,
whereas the ECMWF and Canadian model guidance have it just barely
past the Central Aleutians by around the same time.

-CW

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist. A westerly sea breeze is
expected to develop again today. Late Friday evening, a Turnagain
Arm jet will develop. There is some uncertainty as to whether
this southeasterly wind will bend into the airport immediately or
wait until Saturday. At this time, it looks likely that the winds
will move over the airport overnight Friday night and then persist
into Saturday night.

&&

$$