301
FXAK68 PAFC 021408
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
508 AM AKST Mon Feb 2 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

A front remains along the Gulf coast with continuing showers for
the Sound and eastern Kenai Peninsula. Starting this afternoon,
stronger shortwaves will move into the coast, enhancing rain a bit
for areas like Whittier and Girdwood. Although surface
temperatures dropped a bit yesterday, they`ve warmed back up with
cloudcover and a return of east to southeast flow. With that, snow
levels remain high today for the coastal areas getting
precipitation.

A much stronger front will lift across the Gulf tonight into
Tuesday morning with models developing a second surface low just
off the southern coast of Kodiak Island by mid-morning Tuesday.
The pressure gradient will rapidly strengthen over the western
Gulf with widespread gales and a swath of storm force winds
developing by Tuesday morning. The swath of storm force winds will
orient itself over the western Gulf, through the Barren Islands
and down Shelikof Strait. This east-northeast oriented swath of
strong winds is an ideal direction to see strong winds working
across the northern end of Kodiak Island, with typical spots
helping to channel the winds. It`s looking a little less favorable
for 70+mph in Kodiak based on the orientation of the low, but
there`s enough uncertainty left in the exact track that the Watch
will remain in effect for now. In addition, the warm and moist
airmass will bring periods of moderate to heavy rainfall for
Kodiak Island. Modest rainfall amounts are also expected for the
immediate Gulf coastal areas along the eastern Kenai Peninsula.
For now, the lee-side areas continue to look mostly downsloped
with a dry northerly wind through Tuesday. By Tuesday evening
however, flow aloft becoming more southerly and some stronger
shortwaves moving over should be enough to kick some light rain
into the western Kenai, Anchorage, and potentially the Mat-Su
Valleys. The warm and wet pattern along the coast will continue
through the week as multiple storms move through. Well above
normal temperatures will continue everywhere in Southcentral.

- PP/CJ


&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Thursday morning)...


A complex of lows over the North Pacific and the southern Gulf
will lift north and west into Southwest Alaska and the eastern
Bering Sea, bringing stronger winds and some light precipitation
beyond midweek.

The axis of a high pressure ridge in the Bering is moving off to
the west, and cold northerly flow will continue to bring light
snow showers to the Aleutian Islands west of Adak today, while
warm air advection from the southeast will bring wetter snow to
Unalaska and a wintry mixed precip for the Alaska Peninsula. Dry
conditions are expected for the Southwest mainland with the
exception of elevated terrain north of Dillingham.

Greater chances for precipitation will begin overnight into
Tuesday, as a more robust front lifts toward the Alaska Peninsula.
Expect rain for the Pacific side of the Alaska Peninsula, while
the precipitation type forecast for the Bering side is a bit more
complex, although a fairly weak warm nose aloft signals that early
freezing rain or a complete transition to rain is unlikely.
Expect precipitation to begin as snow across the Bristol Bay
region through Tuesday. Warmer air working into the area could
introduce brief periods of freezing rain for some locations.

By Tuesday night, winds shift out of the southeast and downslope
warming will lead to a transition to rain as temperatures warm
above freezing for Bristol Bay and precipitation cuts off in the
lee of the Aleutian Range. Precipitation then spreads into the
Kuskokwim Delta, especially along the coast. There, surface
temperatures will stay much colder and chances improve for
precipitation to remain as snow, with some locations seeing a mix
of freezing rain into Thursday. Overall, given the snowpack in the
region, impacts from a trace, to a few hundredths of an inch of
freezing rain accumulation would be fairly minimal. Both regions
may also experience visibility reductions from blowing snow, but
have some limiting factors. As a low lifts into Bristol Bay late
on Tuesday, sustained winds increase to 25 to 35 mph, however,
temperatures will likely remain too warm for visibility to drop
below a mile. Weaker 20 to 25 mph winds along the Kuskokwim Delta
coast will also limit visibility reductions.

For the Bering Sea, the initial front will intensify over the
eastern Bering and clip the Pribilof Islands Monday night into
Tuesday. Temperatures in the low to mid 20s combined with
sustained winds around 25 mph will lead to blowing snow for the
islands as this front moves through, but the limiting factor will
be weak precipitation intensity. Snow appears light enough that
visibility reduced to half a mile or less would be very brief or
not occur at all. Along the Aleutians west of Nikolski,
temperatures trend colder heading into the week as northerly flow
ahead of the low continues to bring very cold air south from Far
East Russia. This will keep snow showers going, and even
increasing in coverage, across much of the central and western
Aleutians/Bering Sea.

CQ/ER

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Thursday through
Sunday)...

By Thursday of next week, the expected ridge over Southcentral
is showing signs of breaking down, with the passage of several
shortwave troughs attempting to move through the region as well as
Southwest. With a weak trough established over the Bering,
unsettled weather is expected to persist for Southwest Alaska,
with most likely dry but potentially showery conditions for
Southcentral into the weekend. By Sunday morning, a stronger low
pressure system is showing signs of entering the southern Bering
through the Central Aleutians. This may bring with it warmer
temperatures, rainfall, and stronger winds. The behavior of this
system upon entering the Bering Sea is unclear at this time, but
some solutions are bringing the system into Southwest Alaska by
Monday morning.

-CL

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions with light north-northeast winds are
expected.

&&


$$