050
FXAK68 PAFC 151452
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
552 AM AKST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Monday Night)...

Cold, mostly dry weather will prevail for just a bit longer across
Southcentral Alaska. Latest VIIRS nighttime microphysics imagery
shows much of the area cloud-free with the exception of some higher
clouds gracing the Gulf of Alaska coast and also some low stratus /
fog in the Copper River Basin. These conditions conducive to
excellent radiational cooling have allowed temps to once again reach
the single digits to low teens across much of the area, with values
below zero in the Copper River Basin. Locales across the Gulf Coast
remain considerably warmer due to the marine influence in
conjunction with cloud cover.

Mostly sunny skies will prevail for inland locations today, with
continue cloud cover across the Gulf Coast from a weakening low. By
late afternoon, remnant moisture from the front of the Gulf low will
work northward in conjunction with a potent shortwave trough digging
south and east. Guidance has trended significantly upward over
the past day with QPF across the eastern half of the Copper River
Basin. Latest consensus has most moisture remaining along and east
of the Richardson and Tok Cut-Off highways through Mentasta Pass,
with the bullseye (outside of the higher terrain) being in the
vicinity of Chitina with about 6 inches of snowfall. The highest
uncertainty with this system will be on the periphery- Glennallen
and west, and also around McCarthy.

As the snow in the eastern Copper River Basin shifts east and
diminishes late Saturday night / Sunday morning, attention turns
towards the front extending out from the strong low moving into the
Bering. Rain and gusty winds will overspread Kodiak Island first
during the day Sunday before moving into the Kenai Peninsula late
Sunday and through Sunday night into Monday. Prince William Sound
and the eastern Kenai Peninsula will see the heaviest precipitation,
but the Cook Inlet region up through the Susitna Valley could see
light snow as well on Monday. This system kicks off a very active
pattern for southern Alaska through much of the next week.

-Brown

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Currently, low stratus and fog is covering much of the Southwest
Mainland. This is due to clearer skies and low level moisture.
This fog/stratus should clear out by the afternoon, leading to
mostly clear skies. Meanwhile in the Bering, a front from a low
near Attu is bringing gusty winds and precipitation to the
Western and Central Aleutians. This front will arrive at the
Pribilof Islands and Eastern Aleutians by Saturday afternoon into
early Sunday morning. As the front progresses, a strong, compact
North Pacific low will move into the Bering by Sunday morning.
This low will set the stage for active weather for the next few
days. The low will bring an area of high end gale force winds to
the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula. Winds through gap
areas will be higher. By Sunday afternoon, gusty easterly winds
and precipitation will arrive to the Southwest mainland. Precipitation
will initially be in the form of snow, but aloft temperatures
will warm and cause a mix of snow and freezing rain to impact the
Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay coastlines by late Sunday morning.
This will continue on until surface temperatures warm above
freezing on Monday. A Special Weather Statement has been issued
detailing the hazards with this event.

The track of low is still uncertain, but the current thinking is
that it will slowly progress northward, passing by Nunivak Island
by Monday afternoon. The low will slowly weaken as it does, but
not before turning winds southerly and bringing gusty winds to
inland areas of the Kuskokwim Delta by Monday afternoon. A
potential for minor coastal flooding arises with these southerly
winds. As a messy pattern remains in Southwest Alaska, showery
precipitation is expected almost everywhere Monday through
Tuesday. A front is expected to push into the Bering on Tuesday,
bringing a swath of gusty winds and precipitation to the Central
and Eastern Aleutians. Looking a bit ahead to WEdnesday reveals
this front moving into the Southwest Mainland, bringing SSE winds
to the Kuskokwim Delta and increasing the potential for minor
coastal flooding.

-JAR

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

An active and progressive pattern looks likely through the long
term period as several storms affect the Bering Sea and southern
Alaska over the next week. By early next week, a broad and
persistent upper level trough establishes itself over the Bering
Sea and sends a front across the Aleutians and Southwest Alaska.
As this front progresses across the Bering, elevated winds and
rain along the front are likely across the southern Bering,
including to Aleutian Chain and Pribilof Islands Tuesday into
Wednesday. The front reaches the Southwest Alaska coast by midweek
and brings light rain and snow to much of Southwest before
dissipating. This will be quickly followed by the next low lifting
out of the North Pacific as several shortwaves rotate around the
large upper low centered over the Bering. Fair model agreement
shows this system lifting across the AKPen and into Southwest
Alaska, bringing another round of light snow and rain to the
Southwest Mainland. Strong southeasterly flow promotes heavy
precipitation along the eastern Kenai Peninsula and northern Gulf
coast Thursday into Friday. Models begin to diverge by mid to late
next week, though weather in the Gulf and Southcentral is
expected remain generally unsettled and wet as the upper trough
over the Bering begins to progress eastward. Persistent southerly
flow through mid next week will result in temperatures trending
warmer across southern Alaska.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&


$$