751
FXAK68 PAFC 081252
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
352 AM AKST Sat Nov 8 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Saturday Monday afternoon)...

A vertically stacked area of low pressure is spinning nearly
stationary east of Afognak Island this morning. An upper-level
shortwave rotating around the low and over the northern Gulf is
producing bands of showers that are moving east from the northern
Gulf into Prince William Sound and the eastern Kenai Peninsula.

These showers will persist into early afternoon with 2 to 5 inches
of additional snow accumulation from Portage to Girdwood and
through Turnagain Pass possible, especially if snow shower
activity trains over a particular location for an extended period
of time. Snow is also likely across the northern Susitna Valley
this morning, with 1 to 3 inches of accumulation, as the upper-
level wave that moved onshore yesterday evening stalls over the
region.

By late afternoon, the aforementioned low drifts south, allowing
for a ridge of high pressure to build in across the interior. The
building ridge will allow for clearer conditions and colder
temperatures. Northerly gap winds will redevelop along the
immediate coast as the pressure gradient tightens between the
ridge over the interior and a trough setting up over the northern
Gulf. For interior locations, the combination of clearer skies and
recent snow will likely drop overnight low temperatures Saturday
and Sunday morning into the teens and single digits from the
western Kenai Peninsula north into the Mat-Su Valleys, the
coldest temperatures of the season thus far.

Resuspended ash from the 1912 Katmai-Novarupta eruption will
likely continue to move over Kodiak Island through this morning
as northwesterly winds and gusts remain elevated until the low
moves south and exits the Gulf, after which ash will settle out
as winds subside.

Towards the end of the weekend, a 970-980 mb low will move into
the Gulf from the North Pacific. Models have struggled mightily
with this low the past few days but have come into much better
agreement over the course of today. There`s good consensus for
widespread gales, and that this low (for now) will remain offshore
in the Gulf. With this track, expect cooler temperatures and
offshore winds to persist over Mainland Southcentral. The one
hazard to monitor will be the potential for blowing snow through
Thompson Pass if precipitation makes it far enough north to
coincide with gusty offshore winds.

-TM/KC

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A storm force front continues working its way across the Bering
Sea towards the Southwest Coast through this weekend. The front
weakens to gale force through today, with the final core of
storms fizzling out in the northern Bering Sea late this evening.
Winds peaked around 79 mph in Shemya yesterday afternoon and will
continue to slowly trend down below storm force today. Along the
front, also expect light-to- moderate rainfall rates and gusty
southerly winds through favored gaps and passes on the northern
side of the Alaska Peninsula, such as Cold Bay, which may see
locally higher winds.

As the front reaches the Kuskokwim Delta coast this evening,
gusty winds small craft to gale force may push coastal waters
onshore and raise water levels 2 to 3 feet beyond the normal
highest tide. Temperatures are expected to be cold enough for
precipitation to remain as snow as the front approaches. Combined
with gusty winds, blowing snow is expected, with visibility
reductions of half mile or less. As such, a Winter Weather
Advisory has been issued for the Kuskokwim Delta coast and the
Western Capes of Southwest.


&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

There is little change to the long term outlook from yesterday as
the overall pattern remains active, highlighted by the next
strong storm arriving in the western Bering by Tuesday. This
large, vertically stacked low moving along the Kamchatka coast
will begin pushing its front into the western and central
Aleutians through Tuesday. There continues to be moderate to high
confidence that winds along this front will reach sustained high-
end gale to storm force as the front reaches the western Aleutians
Monday night into Tuesday morning. As this front pushes east
through Tuesday into Wednesday, reasonably good model agreement
suggests the front quickly weakening as it reaches the Alaska
Peninsula and Southwest Alaska coast as the parent low continues
to spin along the Kamchatka coast through midweek. As the front
pushes inland across the Mainland, light snow can be expected for
much of Southwest Alaska Wednesday and Thursday.

Downstream of the system in the Bering, upper level ridging
pushing into Southcentral looks to keep the weather relatively
quiet through midweek. Confidence begins to decrease mid to late
next week as models continue to show significant spread on the
development of low pressure systems lifting north towards the
Aleutians and tracking into the Gulf. Differences in the track
across the Gulf continue to make it difficult to ascertain how far
into Southcentral precipitation will go, with the bulk of
potentially stronger winds and precipitation likely remaining
along the coast and over the Gulf.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions with light northerly winds are expected to
prevail through most of the day. However, there is a area of low
stratus developing northeast of the terminal this morning. This
area of clouds may drift over the terminal through mid-morning,
lowering the ceiling to IFR through mid-morning. Any low cloud
cover over the terminal may also coincide with flurries or very
light snow. VFR conditions should return by late morning. While
confidence is currently low, this band of low cloud and/or fog
may redevelop east of the terminal later tonight and move over
the terminal by early morning Sunday.

&&


$$