693
FXAK68 PAFC 211350
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
450 AM AKST Fri Nov 21 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3 )...

A deep, but occluding 970 mb low currently 70 miles south of
Seward will lift north into the Sound today. Cold air aloft is
wrapping around the low through Kamishak Gap right now and will
soon switch precipitation type in the Kachemak Bay area over to
snow, at least above ~500 ft in elevation. A Winter Weather
Advisory is now in effect until 6pm tonight for the Southwest
Kenai Peninsula, particularly the higher elevations like Diamond
Ridge and Nikolaevsk where 4 to 8 inches of snow are expected.
Farther north up the Inlet some light radar returns are beginning
to show up near Kenai and Soldotna, along with farther north near
Anchorage and the southern Mat-Su. Precipitation type remains
tricky from Kenai north to Palmer, with the 12Z Anchorage sounding
still showing an above freezing wet-bulb temperature from 800ft
to 1800ft. The column will cool throughout the day as colder air
filters in from the west, but rain or freezing rain is the likely
precipitation type through early afternoon from Kenai north.

The overall model consensus for the storm track over the next 24
hours is for the low to move towards Hinchinbrook Island through
this afternoon before retrograding back to the west and near
Whittier. With this low track, the most likely time for
precipitation from the southern Mat-Su south through Anchorage
and the northwest Kenai would be late this afternoon to very early
Friday morning. Around a half an inch of snow is expected for
these areas, with up to 2.5 inches possible should the storm over
produce and precipitation starts earlier this afternoon. Farther
east, Valdez and Cordova will maintain persistent rain showers
through early Saturday morning. Snow will slowly mix in as
temperatures aloft cool somewhat quickly later tonight.

Looking ahead to the rest of the weekend, light snow will
gradually taper off as a low in the Gulf cuts off the moisture
feed, though some light snow showers may linger in the northern
and western Susitna Valley and along the Alaska Range near Paxson.
Despite the colder temperatures aloft, cloud cover will keep
things a little moderated until Sunday when things start to clear
out a bit.

-CJ

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 to 3: Today through Sunday night)...

A low in the Gulf of Alaska extends a front across Southwest
Alaska, which is producing a swath of light snow along a line
roughly from Iliamna to Kalskag this morning. Meanwhile, a broad,
upper-level trough envelops the entirety of mainland Alaska. A
few weaker features (lows, troughs) will rotate south across the
Bering Sea and Southwest Alaska through the broader trough through
the weekend. The front across Southwest Alaska pushes steadily
inland as it and its parent low lift north and east today, keeping
coastal portions of Bristol Bay and parts of the Kuskokwim Delta
dry. However, a low to mid-level trough over the Yukon Delta will
begin to dip south today and wrap snow back west. Light snow will
begin for the northwestern portions of the Kuskokwim Delta and
Nunivak Island later this morning, combined with increasing winds
as colder air pushes in aloft. Temperatures in the 20s combined
with winds increasing to 25 to 30 mph will lead to the potential
for reduced visibilities in blowing snow. Given the expected light
intensity of the snowfall, there is less potential for visibility
to drop to one half mile and remain sustained that low for a
prolonged period of time, but visibility below one mile should be
anticipated along the Kuskokwim Delta coast and for Nunivak Island
as snowfall spreads south along the coast and inland through the
day. By this afternoon, light snow will return to Bethel and other
communities along the Kuskokwim River. Snow accumulations of
around 1 to 2 inches are possible across the Kuskokwim Delta
through tonight. Snow tapers off tonight heading into Saturday as
the trough exits to the south.

Meanwhile, a separate surface low (or trough, given its quick
forward motion) drops south across the eastern Bering Sea and
crosses the Alaska Peninsula this afternoon. This feature will
enhance snow showers for the Pribilof Islands early this morning
and then the Alaska Peninsula and eastern Aleutians later today.
However, some low-level warm air associated with the low/trough
will bring temperatures above freezing and while snowfall may be
heavy at times in these showers, blowing snow is not expected to
significantly reduce visibility.

Cooler temperatures surge across the Bering Sea and Southwest
Alaska in the wake of this low, with lows dropping into the 20s
for the Alaska Peninsula Saturday and Sunday nights, with single
digit lows for the interior Kuskokwim Delta and Lower Kuskokwim
Valley. Out west, a North Pacific low lifts to near the Western
Aleutians by Saturday. Its front brings strong winds, up to
storm-force (50 kts) across the western and central Aleutians
along with moderate to heavy rain. The low remains south of the
Aleutians through the weekend, its front lifting slowly into the
eastern Aleutians through Sunday night. Southwest Alaska remains
dry and cold under offshore flow on Sunday.

Quesada

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

A high amplitude blocking pattern will be building during the
long term forecast period with a ridge of high pressure stretching
from the north slope of Alaska to the southeast Panhandle while
broad low pressure sits over the Aleutian Chain and Bering Sea. A
surface low spinning up under the upper level trough will most
likely have their storm track shunted north due to the blocking
ridge, bringing Kodiak Island and Southwest Alaska the majority of
weather impacts Tuesday and Wednesday. The eastern Kenai
Peninsula may receive modest precipitation as well, but the
majority of Southcentral see clearer skies with little to no
precipitation. A tight pressure gradient along the north Gulf
coast will more than likely result in gusty gap winds in the usual
spots, such as the Copper River Delta, Thompson Pass, and
Matanuska Valley. Expect colder than average temperatures for
interior locations and warmer than average temperatures for the
Alaska Peninsula and Lower Kuskokwim.


&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected until late tonight when a
surface low enters the western Prince William Sound and snow moves
over the terminal. However, there is a slight chance of freezing
rain through the morning before the column can cool down enough to
support snow. While this is not expected, there are light radar
returns moving over the mountains, so very light freezing
sprinkles are possible with minimal accumulation. Snow
accumulation tonight is expected to be around a half inch.

&&


$$