990
FXAK68 PAFC 201427
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
527 AM AKST Thu Nov 20 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3
)...

Two fronts are merging in Prince William Sound this morning as a
deep low currently in southern Shelikof Strait tracks northeast.
Both of the fronts are bringing plentiful moisture and warm air
into the coastal mountains, and aloft temperatures are warming
quickly over the Cook Inlet regions and southern Mat-Su. Radar
returns indicate spill over precipitation and area ASOS stations
are reporting freezing rain in Anchorage and a mix of rain and
snow for the western Kenai. Winter weather advisories for freezing
rain are out until noon for these areas. Otherwise, areas that
have gotten the wind like the Mat Valley and mountainous areas of
the Kenai Peninsula are 34 to 40 degrees. Northerly winds will
continue to increase today which will gradually warm temperatures
into the mid 30s for the hold outs of Anchorage and the western
Kenai. Rain should come to an end late this morning for lee-side
areas after the upper level wave moves through.

Later this afternoon the low will be over the Barren Islands
before tracking either into the western Sound or up Cook Inlet
throughout the day Friday. Overall model consensus is now keeping
the low to the east of the Kenai Peninsula. Precipitation will
accompany the low, with colder air and rain transitioning to snow
to the west and south of the low center as it moves north. While
there is colder air moving in aloft, temperatures at the surface
are likely to be between 30 and 35 degrees due to the southerly
surface wind behind the low. Precipitation type is likely to be
snow but accumulation may be difficult due to warmer temperatures.
By Saturday temperatures will quickly cool down again and
precipitation will end as another low develops in the Gulf and
slowly occludes through the weekend.


&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 to 3: Today through Sunday morning)...


Key Messages:

* Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 6PM AKST this evening
  for the Northern Bristol Bay Coast and Inland Bristol Bay.

* Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 3PM AKST this afternoon
  for the Kuskokwim Delta Coast/Nunivak Island and Interior
  Kuskokwim Delta.

* Gusty northerly winds and snow showers continue for the mainland
  Coast, Interior Kuskokwim Delta, the Central/Eastern Aleutians,
  Pribilof Islands, and the Alaska Peninsula for Friday

Discussion:

An exceptionally strong low pressure system, in the 940s mb,
continues to move northeastward along the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN)
this morning. Dillingham has contended with warmer air thus far
which has allowed for more rain to mix in with the snow. Therefore
snow totals across Dillingham will be lower than forecast. Togiak
and Manokotak continue to see snow this morning. The Winter
Weather Advisory continues through 6PM AKST this evening for the
Northern Bristol Bay Coast and Inland Bristol Bay with snow totals
ranging between 4 and 8 inches. The heaviest snow is still
forecast to fall across the Ahklun Mountains. In addition to the
snow threat across portions of Bristol Bay, a Winter Weather
Advisory also continues for the Kuskokwim Delta and Kuskokwim
Delta Coast/Nunivak Island through 3PM AKST this afternoon. 3 to 6
inches of storm total snow across those areas continues to be in
the forecast as the band of precipitation affecting portions of
Bristol Bay reaches northward in the Kuskokwim Delta and Kuskokwim
Delta Coast. The higher-end totals along the coast look to be
south of Kipnuk where the snow band has persisted longest.
Meanwhile, radar has filled in nicely around Bethel as flow aloft
is switching to northeast and away from the downsloping
southeasterly flow, allowing precipitation to make it over the
Kuskokwim Mountains.

Snow showers will linger across mainland Southwest through today
and will continue into Friday as a colder airmass moves in.
Blowing snow with reduced visibility is possible Friday along the
coast, but especially for Nunivak Island and Nelson Island. While
the cold airmass will arrive to the southern AKPEN along with snow
showers Friday, temperatures will only be marginal in the 30s, so
blowing snow should not be too much of a concern there.
Visibility could still be significantly reduced in heavier snow
showers that pass overhead though. The same goes for the Central
and Eastern Aleutians. The Pribilof Islands may be more at risk
for some blowing snow Friday as they will be more in the heart of
the cold airmass.

Snow showers embedded in the northerly flow will become more
confined to to the mountain ranges across mainland Southwest as
snow showers across the Central/Eastern Aleutians, Pribilofs, and
AKPEN taper off with a ridge building into the central Bering Sea.
The core of this ridge moves to the northeast Bering by Sunday
morning with mostly quiet and cold conditions expected across the
majority of the domain.

Behind the northeastward propagating ridge, a North Pacific low
lifts to near the Western Aleutians by Saturday. Its front brings
strong gusty winds, up to storm-force (50 kts) across the Western
Aleutians and the marine areas near the Western Aleutians Saturday
afternoon. These strong gusty southeasterly winds make it to
around Adak by Sunday morning, along with light to moderate rain.


&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

An omega block pattern will be in place at the start of the long
term forecast period with a dying low in the Gulf of Alaska,
building high pressure over the Bering Sea, and another low just
south of the western Aleutians. The tight pressure gradient
between the Bering high and Aleutian low will create a corridor of
southerly winds up to storm-force through the western and central
Aleutians Saturday night and Sunday. The low will track into the
Gulf of Alaska for the first half of the week, setting up a rex
block pattern with high pressure over the northern half of
mainland Alaska and low pressure over the southern Alaska and the
Gulf. Surface lows spinning up will likely bring elevated winds
and precipitation to the Bristol Bay region, Kodiak Island, and
the north Gulf coast Tuesday and Wednesday while the Copper River
Basin and interior Alaska stays cold and dry.


&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...While the terminal will remain mostly dry this morning,
light freezing rain is expected between 15Z and 18Z as a front
moves overhead with ample upper level support. Brief MVFR
conditions are possible during this time. After frontal passage
conditions will remain VFR with light northerly winds. The main
storm system currently southwest of Kodiak Island will track into
the Sound Friday morning, which may return light snow to the
terminal and southerly wind. MVFR to IFR conditions are expected.


&&


$$