028
FXAK68 PAFC 240032
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
432 PM AKDT Mon Jun 23 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

Clouds and more clouds have been the story of the day for
Southcentral along with scattered showers lifting over the Kenai
Peninsula and up Cook Inlet. A "troughy" and unsettled pattern has
unfolded across Southcentral with multiple chances for
precipitation forecast through the week. Currently, a smaller wave
of low pressure is tracking up Cook Inlet. On radar, light rain
is noted from Kenai into far southern portions of the Susitna
Valley. Very light rain is forecast to expand over the Anchorage
Bowl through the evening hours though it should be short-lived as
the wave of low pressure departs to the north.

Farther east and over the Copper River Basin there have been
notable breaks in the cloud cover from Mentasta Lake to Paxson. A
lone wet thunderstorm was observed west of Mentasta Lake during
the morning hours, but quickly dissipated. This region to the
north of the Wrangells will continue to have the best chance of an
isolated thunderstorm or two through this evening. Further south,
additional clearing is noted along along the Glenn Hwy from near
Eureka to Glennallen and southeastward along the Richardson and
Edgerton Highways to Chitina. Continued daytime heating may yield
a few convective showers before dark.

Temperatures across Southcentral will be moderated by cloud cover
the next few days with limited thunderstorm chances. Expect
temperatures in the 50s and 60s with potential for parts of the
Copper River Valley to hit 70. The next developing low moves near
Kodiak Island and into the Gulf Coast Wednesday morning, and will
likely be accompanied by widespread, light precipitation chances
for most of Southcentral.

- BL

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Thursday night)...

What remains of the large occluded low pressure system that has
been plaguing the Pribilof Islands with fog and mist for the past
couple of days has opened into a trough this afternoon. With that
said, to a lesser degree than yesterday, periods of foggy, misty,
and showery conditions continue for the Pribilofs, Alaska
Peninsula, and coastal Southwest. A persistent onshore flow from
the Bering Sea will keep weather unsettled for the short term. The
best chance for wetting rain (0.1 inches in a 12 hour period)
inland through Thursday is for locations near the Western Alaska
Range while locations outside of the terrain and along the coast
have lower chances.

Temperatures for today through Thursday will remain mild for
inland locations of southwest with low to mid 60s today and upper
60s by Thursday while it stays cooler along the coast and Alaska
Peninsula with low to mid 50s through the forecast period. The
areas of cooler temperatures are due to southerly to southeasterly
flow bringing in maritime air into the region. A period of gusty
southeast winds is likely by Tuesday ahead of another frontal
system moving eastward from the western Bering. These winds will
likely relax by Tuesday evening.

As mentioned above, the next notable weather-maker is currently
making its way eastward across the western Bering Sea and Western
Aleutians in the form of a Kamchatka front. The gale-force front
is expected to continue weakening as it moves farther eastward
across the Bering and Aleutian Chain. The heaviest rain is
expected to remain confined over the Western Aleutians and Central
Aleutians today with light rain expected for the Pribilof
Islands, Eastern Aleutians, southern Alaska Peninsula by Tuesday.
The parent low is expected to move into the central Bering Sea by
Wednesday which will help to reinforce the aforementioned cool,
cloudy, and showery pattern over the southwestern mainland
Wednesday and Thursday.

-AM/DN


&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

No significant change from previous discussion. Continued
unsettled weather will be associated with a series of shortwave
troughs rotating around a closed upper level low as it transits
across the Southcentral portion of the state through the forecast
period. This will bring mostly cloudy skies, cooler temperatures
and showery precipitation across the region. While this may bring
some relief to the inland wildfires, it will not bring an end to
the Red Flag conditions affecting the state.

Southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula will see moderate
precipitation as a slowly weakening surface low near the Pribilofs
slowly moves across the area and into the Central Gulf of Alaska
by the weekend. Gusty winds cross the Central Aleutians late
Thursday into early Friday. Moderate easterly winds set up over
the Northern Gulf of Alaska late Friday into Saturday. A
moderately strong North Pacific low approaches the Western
Aleutians Friday before heading back into the North Pacific for
the weekend.

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR to MVFR conditions and light southerly winds will
persist. Occasional light rain showers are possible through
tonight.

&&

$$