742
FXAK68 PAFC 040038
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
438 PM AKDT Wed Jun 3 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Saturday afternoon)...

Few changes to the previous forecast, except that conditions have
trended hotter and drier than initially forecast. Today and
tomorrow will be the warmest days for most of Southcentral Alaska;
as of 4 PM today, quite a few locations in Mat-Su, Anchorage, and
interior Kenai Peninsula have already hit 80 degrees. Much of the
previous forecast discussion still stands, and is replicated
below with minor edits:

Today and tomorrow continue to look awfully nice across
Southcentral with Friday also not looking too shabby. This is due
to a ridge that stretches across most of mainland Alaska from the
the Bering Sea into the Yukon Territory. This will keep sunny
skies over Southcentral today with the warmest temperatures of the
season so far for most areas. Thursday will remain mostly sunny
for most of the area, though temperatures will likely be a tick
lower than today. Another difference from today is that by late
Thursday, a weak shortwave will skirt the Copper River Basin. This
will likely bring some shower activity to the Wrangell Mountains
and eastern portion of the Alaska Range. It should also increase
the northerly winds through the Alaska Range a little bit as well.

On Friday, the upper ridge will show signs of weakening as a
trough begins to dig into Western Alaska out of an Arctic low.
This is not a sharp trough and will mainly pave the way for a much
stronger trough to dig into the area this weekend. However, for
Friday, this should mean some increasing clouds but still
relatively warm temperatures. There will also be increased shower
activity over the Mountains across the region for Friday afternoon
and evening.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Saturday morning)...

A dry and warm pattern has established across Southwest Alaska and
is extending into the Bering Sea/Aleutians this afternoon.
Showery activity across the AKPEN looks to taper off through this
afternoon with low stratus lifting this afternoon across Unalaska.
Warm and dry conditions have been observed across Mainland
Southwest Alaska with temperatures into the mid 70s. The warmest
and driest conditions have been observed along the corridor from
Sleetmute to King Salmon. Expect similar conditions for Thursday,
except potentially a few degrees cooler. This cooling trend will
continue into Friday and Saturday as a series of weak upper-level
shortwaves will dig south over Mainland Southwest and bring
increased cloud cover. As such, Red Flag Warnings have been issued
for several regions within Southwest Alaska, please see those
products for more information. We will continue to monitor
conditions in these areas given the potential persistent pattern.

Farther out west, low stratus continues across much of the
western Bering Sea, from Adak and west, due to a persistent ridge
of high pressure. The ridge over the Bering will begin to weaken
and break down through today, but it will still have influence
over much of the Bering through Thursday as drier air in the
middle to upper-levels of the atmosphere moves over the eastern to
north-central Bering. A weak North Pacific low will send its
front northward to the vicinity of Adak/Atka by early Friday
morning. There is some uncertainty on how far north rain will make
it. Therefore, a chance for light precipitation Friday across
Adak/Atka is expected for Friday morning. This system could make
it to Nikolski/Unalaska by Saturday morning. This will again
depend on the northern extent of the front as to whether any rain
makes it into those locations.

-CL/DAN

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Through the end of this weekend and into early next week,
relatively cooler and wetter weather is expected to roll in as
Arctic troughing gradually digs further south into interior
Alaska. As this occurs, northwesterly flow aloft will help
moderate temperatures closer to seasonal averages. While timing
these shortwave pushes remains the main challenge in the medium-
to- long range forecast, much of the southern mainland will likely
see on-and-off light showery conditions through the period.
Instability has trended lower, so convective activity should be
limited with any storms that do form.

Looking into the North Pacific, an upper-level low will track
across the Southern Gulf on Sunday and into Monday. While this
system shouldn`t have much direct impact on our region, it could
send moisture up into some of the coastal regions of Southcentral
(including the Wrangell Mountains and Price William Sound). By
Wednesday, another North Pacific low builds just South of the
Central Aleutians. This second low appears to take a more
northerly track, potentially bringing more widespread impacts
across the region toward the later half of the week.

-CW

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...

...A Red Flag Warning is effect through 8 PM Wednesday evening
for hot, dry, windy conditions for the Kuskokwim Valley, Inland
Kuskokwim Delta, Inland Bristol Bay, Northern Bristol Bay coast,
and Bristol Bay Borough...

A building ridge of high pressure over Interior Alaska, coupled
with a decaying trough of low pressure across the Gulf of Alaska
and south of the Alaska Peninsula, is allowing for an increase in
surface winds across Southwest Alaska this afternoon and evening.
The increase in wind, combined with temperatures in the middle to
upper 70s, is resulting in min RH values falling to 25 percent or
lower for quite a few locations. Today is expected to be the
warmest and driest day across Southwest, with slightly cooler
temperatures and higher min RH values for Thursday.

Southcentral will likely continue to see warm and dry conditions
into Thursday along with an increase in northerly winds through
the Alaska Range and into the northern portions of the Susitna
Valley and Copper River Basin; however, any possible warnings
will be contingent on fuel conditions determined by AICC. Winds
are also a little uncertain as to how far south they will get into
the Susitna Valley. Gusty winds may also make it to the coast for
places like Seward. Temperatures around Seward for Thursday are
expected to be in the lower 70s with min RH values around 30
percent.



&&


$$