185
FXAK68 PAFC 270111
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
511 PM AKDT Sun Jul 26 2026


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.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Sunday through Tuesday)...

After over a week of daily rainfall and temperatures in the 50s,
this past weekend`s dry conditions, sunny skies and calm winds
across most of Southcentral was a welcomed relief. However, as a
trough moves southward across the region tonight, cloud cover
increases with scattered rain showers expected Monday into
Tuesday.

A trough moving southward from the Arctic brings increased cloud
cover overnight to Southcentral and wide spread rain showers
overnight into Monday morning. Rainfall amounts through 10 pm
tomorrow will vary across Southcentral with a 20% chance of
amounts exceeding 0.10" from Anchorage up to Palmer/Wasilla. Into
the northern and western Susitna Valley, the chance of exceeding
0.10" rises to 80% though the chance of exceeding 0.25" rises to
45% and exceeding 0.50" is 30%. Therefore, total rainfall amounts
in this part of the Susitna Valley during this short- lived rain
event ranged from 0.25" to 0.50". While these amounts are not
expected to cause any additional flooding, it will be worth
watching as many streams and rivers in the Susitna Valley remain
elevated. Drier conditions return for Tuesday evening across
Southcentral.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING
SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Wednesday
afternoon)...

Over the next few days, generally expect windy and wet conditions
for the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands, with areas of fog and low
clouds. For Southwest Alaska and Northern Alaska Peninsula, expect
light rain tomorrow, but otherwise mostly warm and dry conditions
with clearer skies. The biggest forecast challenge over the coming
days will be the coverage and thickness of fog across the Bering
Sea.

Diving into the details... a ridge extends over the Bering Sea,
while longwave troughing encompasses much of Mainland Alaska and
the Gulf. Embedded in the flow between these upper level features
are a shortwave ridge over Southwest Alaska, and several
shortwave troughs in the northern Bering. The shortwave ridge
over Southwest is currently bringing clear skies, allowing
temperatures to climb into the 60s and even the low 70s this
afternoon. These clearer skies won`t last for long, however, as
the first of the incoming shortwave troughs is currently clipping
the Kuskokwim Delta coast. While impacts from this shortwave will
be localized to the Kuskokwim Delta and Central Alaska Peninsula,
more widespread cloud cover is on the way as a larger wave pivots
southeastwards from the Bering Strait tonight.

As this larger wave moves across Southwest for tomorrow, a weak
surface low develops near Bristol Bay and brings light rain to
the Bristol Bay coast and Northern Alaska Peninsula tomorrow
morning and early afternoon. Cold air advection aloft and upper
level vorticity will lead to a slight chance of thunderstorms
tomorrow afternoon, mostly along the western slopes of the Alaska
Range. With the bulk of energy from the trough having exited into
the North Pacific by tomorrow night, warm and dry conditions will
make a return for Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs climbing back
into the high 60s and low 70s.

For the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands, generally expect areas
of rain and sustained winds up to 20-30 kt as troughs and lows
move along the periphery of the ridge. In particular, rain
coverage and intensity will increase across the Bering Sea tonight
as a moisture tap from the North Pacific surges northwards and
interacts with a front extending from an occluding Kamchatka low,
forming a weak and elongated surface low. The one-two punch of this
low and the wave moving from the Bering Strait into the Eastern
Bering/Southwest Alaska will work to flatten and displace the
ridge southwards. This will open the door for rain to spill across
much of the Aleutians and the Southern Alaska Peninsula for
tomorrow. After the low exits into the North Pacific late Tuesday
morning, rain will gradually subside as the ridge rebounds. This
building high pressure could bring the potential for more fog and
low clouds across the Bering Sea and Aleutians. Towards Wednesday
afternoon, the next storm system will bring another round of rain
as it moves into the Western Bering.

-KC

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Friday)...

High pressure overtakes Southcentral and the Gulf of Alaska
through the long term forecast period resulting in warm, dry
conditions. Broad troughing is forecast to slide over the
southern Bering and Aleutians Thursday into Friday. While not
particularly strong, intermittent rain chances are likely beneath
and downstream of the trough from Unalaska and Saint Paul into
Southwest Alaska through the weekend.

-BL

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Winds will remain light
becoming southerly by late this evening. Southerly winds pick up,
becoming gusty early tomorrow morning and will persist through the
early afternoon.

KM

&&


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