127
FXAK68 PAFC 221346
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
546 AM AKDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3: Today through Friday)...

The forecast remains on track, with mostly some minor tweaks to
timing and magnitude of winds and precipitation.

Key Messages:

1) A Wind Advisory remains in effect through Noon AKDT Thursday
for the Anchorage Hillside and Upper Eagle River for gusts up to
50 to 65 mph.

2) A Wind Advisory is in effect for the lower elevations of Eagle
River, Anchorage, and Eklutna from 1AM AKDT Thursday to Noon AKDT
Thursday for expected gusts of 35 to 50 mph.

3) A Wind Advisory is in effect for the Western Kenai Peninsula
along and near Cook Inlet for wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph. 8 to 12
feet waves expected moving northward up the Cook Inlet.

4) NEW: Flood Advisory has been issued for Oilwell Road near Kroto
and Moose Creeks. Otherwise, Flood Advisories remain in effect
for the Yentna and Skwentna rivers.

5) Flood Watches remain in effect for the Susitna Valley and
Hatcher Pass due to excessive rainfall and continuing into mid
week.


Discussion:

A wet, windy, and dynamic forecast remains on track for
Southcentral Alaska. With the trough that brought yesterday`s
stormy weather lifting northward and exiting the region, steady
rain will taper off into showers across most of Southcentral
through this morning, with the exception of coastal areas like
Seward, Chenega, Valdez, and Cordova.

This break in weather will be short-lived, however. A low
pressure system moving inland from the northern Bering Sea will
push its front across Southcentral Alaska this evening. Aloft,
the global models show that its associated shortwave trough/closed
low will be robust, and a leading upper trough will move over
Southcentral first midday today. A combination of lowering
pressure ahead of the front, the reformation of the coastal ridge,
and the overall synoptic flow will lead to enhanced wind speeds
with this system...not just through the Turnagain Arm, but for the
Cook Inlet and Knik River Valley as well. For Cook Inlet,
reinforced up-Inlet flow with gales is likely late tonight
through Thursday morning. Although the bulk of these winds will
stay offshore, places like Kenai Beach could very well end up
being clipped with these winds as well as Nikiski (and places
where the western Kenai Peninsula coast juts out into the Inlet).
These winds will lead to high seas up to 12 feet or so moving
north up the Inlet. Therefore, a Wind Advisory has been issued for
the western Kenai Peninsula, with an emphasis on the western
coastline seeing the strongest of these winds (gusts to 50 mph).

Regarding rainfall, one area of concern is a period of heavy rain
(tonight through Thursday morning) in the Talkeetna Mountains and
nearby portions of the Matanuska and Susitna Valley resulting in
fast responding rivers and streams such as the Little Susitna
River and Willow Creek to be susceptible to flooding. Larger and
slower responding rivers across the Susitna Valley will also see
fairly heavy rain and will not have a chance to drop much this
week, so out of bank flooding onto floodplains is also likely for
some of these locations. For Thursday morning, the concern for
stronger winds and downed trees grows as low level convergence
sets up as up-Inlet gales interact with the Turnagain Arm wind,
leading to enhanced precipitation and QPF. With this additional
forcing, pouring rain Thursday morning on the tail end of the
system working in tandem with strong winds across the Anchorage
area increases the likelihood of downed trees from saturated soils
from recent and ongoing rainfall. Through Thursday night, most
locations across the Cook Inlet region will see another 0.5 to
1 inch of rainfall, with higher values for west-facing slopes of
the Talkeetna Mountains due to the synoptic flow shift between
systems. By Friday morning, developing northerly flow will mark a
transition towards warmer and drier conditions, as well as gusty
offshore winds.

-AM/KC

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING
SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Saturday morning)...

Scattered showers, left over from the low and front yesterday,
continue over interior Southwest Alaska along the Western Alaska
Range and along the northern Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) this
morning. Attention quickly shifts to the next system that is
currently centered in the north-central Bering Sea. Its front is
advancing quickly past the Pribilof Islands to the east and to the
Southwest Coast this morning where radar returns from the Bethel
and King Salmon radars show areas of rain along the coast. Expect
a corridor of southwesterly gales to move from the Pribilof
Islands eastward to Kuskokwim Bay by late morning and into Bristol
Bay by this afternoon. Gales remain in both bays through early
Thursday morning before winds begin to diminish back to small-
craft. These gusty winds will also reach into the interior where
Bethel and areas along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast could see up to
50 mph gusts late tonight into Thursday.

The Special Weather Statements remain out for both Kuskokwim
Delta and Northern Bristol Bay Coasts to bring awareness to the
gusty winds, but also the moderate to heavy rain and rough seas as
well. In addition, with more wind making it inland through the
Kuskokwim Delta, a Wind Advisory has been issued for the Interior
Kuskokwim Delta, including Bethel, for southwest to westerly wind
gusts reaching 50 mph at times this evening through early Thursday
morning (6 PM AKDT this evening through 6 AM AKDT Thursday
morning). Places along the Northern Bristol Bay Coast can continue
to expect 35 to 45 mph southwesterly gusts this afternoon through
Thursday morning.

Aside from the gusty winds across the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol
Bay, moderate to heavy rain moves inland through this evening as
the Kuskokwim Valley, Interior Bristol Bay, and along the Western
Alaska Range contend with another wet round. Steady rain tapers
off to showers along the coast starting tonight. The Western
Alaska Range will continue to contend with steady showers through
Thursday night as westerly upslope flow continues to ring out
moisture and additional weak shortwave move across the area. The
majority of Southwest and the AKPEN will finally dry out by
Thursday afternoon. The drying trend continues for Southwest for
Friday.

Meanwhile and farther back west, another push of warm tropical
air rides northward between the strong ridge in the North Pacific
nudging into the south-central Bering and an upper-level low just
south of the Kamchatka Peninsula. This warm air and rain will lift
north over Shemya today through Friday. A piece of upper-level
energy will slide eastward and around the northern precipice of
the ridge and move over the Pribilof Islands by Thursday afternoon
to evening. This area of rain will then pivot southeastward and
to the southern AKPEN by Friday morning as the ridge extending
into the southern Bering begins to further amplify. Light rain
continues into Saturday morning for the Pribilofs, Western
Aleutians, and southern AKPEN while most of Southwest remains dry.
Some guidance hints that this area of rain could make it into
Southwest through Saturday but confidence is currently low for
that solution and higher for the drier solution.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

By Saturday morning, high pressure is expected to remain
stationed over the southern and eastern Bering Sea, with a
weakening low pressure system in the northern Gulf of Alaska.
Through the remainder of the weekend, the ridge over the Bering
appears to remain relatively stationary, with the weak trough over
the Gulf dissipating, leaving a fairly undefined set-up over
Southcentral. The lack of defining features in the Southcentral
area may result in heightened local effects given the weak
synoptic flow pattern. In the Bering, ridging may promote either
clear skies and/or widespread low stratus. By Tuesday morning, the
ridge in the Bering appears to begin shifting south out of the
area, which may allow for more active features to make their way
in eventually, but ultimately leaving the Bering and the southern
mainland in zonal flow for most of Tuesday.

-CL

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...While gusty winds linger, rain will taper off through the
morning as the current storm departs. Rain returns and winds begin
strengthening later this afternoon as the next, stronger storm
system approaches. There remains some timing uncertainty with the
onset of light rain and, therefore, how quickly ceilings will
drop. However, confidence is moderate that the higher rain rates
will arrive at the terminal by around 03z, with ceilings likely
dropping to MVFR around that time. Gusty southeasterly winds will
also increase around 03z, peaking with gusts up to 35 to 45 kt
from late tonight through late tomorrow morning.

&&


$$