926
FXAK68 PAFC 100124
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
424 PM AKST Sun Nov 9 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A ridge of high pressure continues to build across Southcentral
for the rest of today into tonight. Although fog has lifted for
most locations across Anchorage, Kenai Peninsula, and the MatSu,
the fog is likely to settle back in this evening and linger into
tomorrow morning. Gap winds were strong through Whittier/Passage
Canal, Seward/Resurrection Bay, and Valdez. These gap winds may
back off some for Monday, but another chances for gusty winds may
return Tuesday. With clear skies, temperatures overnight cooled
quickly and daytime highs have been colder than originally
forecasted. Temperatures may plummet again tonight and for Tuesday
morning, especially in lower elevations and valleys. Cloud cover
and any/absence of mixing will be key factors in temperatures
outcome.

The next low is quickly moving into the western Gulf of Alaska
this afternoon. The forecast track is trending the low and its
front south enough through the central Gulf that the main focus
for precipitation will be for Kodiak Island and the immediate
coast of the Northern Gulf and Prince William Sound. Precipitation
type for Kodiak has started off as snow but could transition
towards rain by early tomorrow morning. If enough cold air holds
on along the coast, Kodiak City could see about an inch or two of
snow with slightly higher amounts west of the city. Gale force
winds with some embedded storm-force gusts appear likely near the
low and along the front but should stay offshore.

The surface low weakens and begins to track slightly westward
along the northern Gulf for Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Gap
winds early in the morning will tend to weaken later in the day
and the probability of showers increases throughout the day for
Prince William Sound. Overall flow becomes west to northwesterly
Tuesday as the low weakens and a flattening ridge with embedded
trough from the west starts to move into the western Gulf late
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A front from a low is passing through the Southwest mainland,
which is bringing gusty winds and snowfall to particularly the
Kuskokwim Delta. Winds are slowly dropping off as the front passes
through with lingering snowfall. A warmer air mass is behind the
front, so temperatures will rise and may warm above freezing in
Bristol Bay, so precipitation there may become a rain/snow mix.
However, the Kuskokwim Delta is expected to stay below freezing,
so any lingering precipitation will be in the form of snowfall.
Meanwhile, a low in the Bering north of Shemya is bringing a large
swath of gusty winds to the Aleutian Islands. Winds are up to
gale force in strength. Monday has winds become light in the
mainland. There may be some lingering light snow showers in the
Kuskokwim Delta and the Lower Kuskokwim Valley from the same low
that brought the front. The Bering also has conditions improving
as the low moves southeast and weakens. A ridge builds behind into
the Western Aleutians, so lower chances for precipitation and
lower wind speeds are expected.

Tuesday has the same low still hanging around off the Kuskokwim
Delta coast finally drop south. Some small craft winds off the
coast and breezy winds inland are expected in the Kuskokwim Delta.
Small craft winds will also move into the Alaska Peninsula region
with some precipitation as well. Another frontal system moves
into the Bering from the west. A line of precipitation with gale
force winds will move into the Western Aleutians Tuesday morning,
reaching the Pribilof Islands and the Eastern Aleutians by
Wednesday morning. The frontal system will reach the mainland by
Wednesday afternoon, allowing for some snowfall. Behind the front
is warm air advection and weak flow, which means light winds and
showery precipitation in the Bering.

-JAR

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

Over the second half of next week a western Bering trough will
slide across the Aleutians Thursday into Friday, eventually
crossing over into the Gulf of Alaska by Saturday. Gusty westerly
winds from small craft to gales are anticipated from Adak to
Unalaska with what looks to be minimal impacts at this time. The
bigger story will entail a North Pacific low lifting into the
Western and Central Aleutians over the weekend. Deterministic
models and ensemble guidance are loosely in agreement with
bringing a ~940 to sub 940 mb low across the Aleutians into the
Bering Saturday into Sunday. While confidence in the track and
intensity are extremely low, impacts from the forecast low`s track
would include strong winds, potentially high winds, Saturday and
Sunday over the Western and Central Aleutians.

For Southwest and Southcentral Alaska seasonably cool
temperatures are forecast. The passage of one or two weaker
troughs through interior Alaska will support above normal chances
for precipitation.

BL


&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Low stratus and fog are expected to be in and out of the
terminal through Monday morning, likely changing over from VFR to
LIFR as the fog/stratus moves in and out of the airport. Upper
level clouds moving overhead should begin to mitigate fog and
stratus development tomorrow after sunrise. Winds will remain
light and variable, predominately out of the north.

&&


$$