174
FXAK68 PAFC 180039
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
439 PM AKDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3: Tonight through Sunday)...

Weak high pressure over Southcentral Alaska this afternoon is
leading to mostly sunny skies, dry conditions, and light winds.
Tonight, a low pressure system over the Alaska Peninsula (remnants
of the former Severe Tropical Storm Nari) pushes a weak front
across Kodiak Island, bringing light rain. The weak low tracks
into the western Gulf for Friday as the front attempts to nudge
north into the Kenai Peninsula. There is still significant spread
in the model guidance extremes regarding how far north
precipitation makes it into Southcentral, but there is a growing
consensus on a far enough south and east track that little more
than a stray rain shower or two out ahead of the front can be
expected north of the Kenai Peninsula. The furthest north extent
of the front looks to set up somewhere over the Kenai Peninsula on
Friday morning, with the chance for accumulating precipitation
increasing to the south and west. The front rapidly weakens
through the day, meaning much of the afternoon and evening are
expected to be dry, with breaks of sun possible even for places
that see rainfall in the morning. The approaching front induces a
weak coastal ridge that may allow for some light southerly gap
winds through the favored areas. Increasing surface moisture and
mid-level lapse rates support isolated thunderstorm development
north of the Wrangell Mountains Friday afternoon/evening.

By Saturday, high pressure over the North Pacific nudges north
into the Gulf, situating Southcentral right on its periphery.
Expect a general drying and warming trend, though models are
struggling with resolving the track and timing of weak shortwaves
that could induce periods of light rain over western portions of
the forecast area. While there will be breaks of sun, a broad low
pressure in the Bering Sea will spread clouds (especially high-
level clouds) into Southcentral, with sky cover decreasing further
east toward the Copper Basin. By Sunday, much of the Mat-Su
Valleys, Anchorage, and parts of the Kenai Peninsula are likely to
see high temperatures nudge into the low 70s, with highs
approaching 80 in the Copper Basin. This seasonably warm and dry
stretch looks to last into early next week.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Saturday)...

A stationary Bering Sea low will continue to cause the steering
force to bring multiple waves of moisture and smaller low pressure
systems into the Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula and Southwest
Mainland through the end of this week.

Today, a fast-moving low pressure system brought rain and gusty
southeasterly to southerly winds to the Central and Eastern
Aleutians. Rainfall amounts ranging from a trace to a few
hundredths and wind gusts reaching as high as 35 mph were
recorded as of 4:00pm this afternoon. These conditions continue to
migrate eastward as the low moves toward the Alaska Peninsula and
Southwest Mainland through the overnight hours. An area of
concern is the Bristol Bay waters and coastline where gusts as
high as 35 mph and wave heights ranging from 3 to 6 feet will be
common overnight into Friday morning. Rainfall amounts ranging
from a tenth to a quarter of an inch can be expected into late
Friday morning with most of the rain falling from Dillingham to
Goodnews Bay.

Friday afternoon to Saturday evening, southerly winds return for
Bristol Bay as another low pressure system moves through the area.
Though model agreement and forecaster confidence of its track is
low to moderate at this time, a greater likelihood of a prolonged
period of onshore winds early Saturday afternoon thorough the
late evening hours for the Southwest Mainland coast remains.
Current thinking is wind gusts and wave heights in Bristol Bay
during this time will be lower than in previous days.
Additionally, precipitation during this time is trending highest
in the Kuskokwim River Valley from Togiak to Toksook Bay east to
Bethel and Lime Village. Widespread showers are expected across
the Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Mainland Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

By Monday, the pattern will be initially directed largely by a
weakening low pressure system over the northwestern Bering Sea and
a large ridge developed over the southern Gulf of Alaska.
Southwesterly flow across southern Alaska will persist due to the
orientation of the aforementioned pressure system. This flow
pattern will keep Southwest Alaska likely moist with plenty of
cloud cover with air continuing to flow in from the Bering Sea.
Through mid-week, the weak low in the northwestern Bering will
dissolve, leading to the pattern being lead by the ridge in the
northern Pacific. Shortwaves coming up and over the ridge will
maintain the unsettled pattern along the Alaska Peninsula and into
Southwest/Southcentral mainland Alaska.

-CL

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. The sea breeze
will diminish this evening and then winds are expected to be from
the south to south tomorrow. Ceilings are expected to remain VFR,
though some periods of lowering to the 3500 to 4500 ft range are
possible late tonight through tomorrow morning.

&&


$$