835
FXAK68 PAFC 141325
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
525 AM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Thursday)...

Scattered showers will prevail on Tuesday as the next in a series
of shortwave troughs lift across the region. Morning radar shows
widespread precipitation extending from Kodiak Island up into the
Susitna Valley and Prince William Sound. As has been advertised
in previous forecast discussions, gusty southeasterly winds are
expected through much of the day on Tuesday, especially for gap
wind prone locations. Winds coming out of the Turnagain Arm will
at times bend into Anchorage. Likewise, southerly winds pushing
into the Sound will also accelerate northward through the Copper
River Basin.

A wind advisory remains in effect for Anchorage and the Anchorage
Hillside, where peak winds could gust as high as 45 to 65 mph.
The strongest winds will occur at elevation, though isolated gusts
will have the potential to work their way to the surface as well.
Winds will be strongest ahead of the trough axis. For western
portions of Southcentral, this means peak winds will extend from
the late morning hours into the early evening hours on Tuesday,
gradually subsiding thereafter as the trough axis overtakes the
Anchorage Bowl and lifts northeastward. Gusty winds from Cordova
into the Copper River Basin should persist later into the early
morning hours on Wednesday before also being surpassed by the
trough.

Scattered showers across Southcentral will likely be ongoing
during the morning hours on Wednesday. Rain chances will then
diminish somewhat over the second half of the day on Wednesday as
upper level forcing for ascent scoots north of the Alaska Range.
The pattern, however, will remain active with yet another upper
trough forecast to move into Southcentral on Thursday. Expect more
rain and potential winds over the latter half of the week, with
unseasonably cooler temperatures to continue.

-BL

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Friday)...

A longwave trough has set up over the Bering Sea and into Western
Alaska. Embedded within this longwave trough is multiple strong
shortwaves which will move across the Bering and the Mainland and
bring widespread rainfall. This pattern will linger on through the
week with periods of widespread rainfall expected.

Rainfall continues over the Southwest Mainland as one of the
strong shortwaves passes through the area. Gusty westerly winds
up to galeforce (up to 35 to 40 mph gusts) will be over Bristol
Bay and into the Dillingham and King Salmon areas. These winds
will gradually diminish through Wednesday. Speaking of Wednesday,
rainfall will become more scattered over the mainland as the area
becomes in between shortwaves. A low will move into the Bering on
Wednesday and will bring more rainfall and elevated winds (near
small craft). By Thursday, this low will push into the Alaska
Peninsula, leading to widespread rainfall returning to the
Southwest Mainland. Friday will see rainfall continue over the
mainland as the upper low sits in place. Also, another low will
move into the Bering and will bring even more rainfall and
elevated wind speeds.

High temperatures for the week remain below 60F due to the
widespread cloud cover and rainfall, with low temperatures dipping
into the low 40s for many locations by midweek. Wind speeds over
the Southwest Mainland will generally be southerly and westerly at
10 to 15 mph through the week as the shortwaves move through. This
pattern looks to persist into the weekend with continued upper
troughing.

-JH/JAR

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

No change from previous Long Term discussion... Longwave trough
remains in place over the Mainland through the end of this week.
Multiple waves of moisture moving through Southwest and
Southcentral Alaska will provide periods of light to moderate
rainfall during this time. Utilizing an ensemble mean forecast
model approach mitigates the outlier differences while keeping
this long range forecast trend.

Southcentral: Waves of moisture move through the Gulf bringing
periods of locally moderate rainfall to Prince William Sound,
Kodiak Island and Eastern Kenai Peninsula through Saturday.
Persistent southerly to southwesterly flow will provide the
conditions for stronger waves of moisture to track inland to the
Copper River Basin, Anchorage Bowl and Mat-Su Valleys. This flow
will also result in seasonally cooler pattern from increased
cloud cover and cooler temperatures.

Southwest: With the trough firmly in place, multiple low pressure
systems will move through the Bering Sea. Periods of light to
moderate rain are expected from the Aleutians to the Alaska
Peninsula through Friday. These conditions reach the Mainland by
Saturday keeping the pattern of seasonally cool temperatures and
cloud cover through this upcoming weekend.

-Johnston/DD

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Rain continues through most of the day today. Gusty
southeast winds should prevent ceilings from dropping below MVFR
today. During heavier bursts of rain, especially late morning to
early afternoon, expect ceilings to oscillate between VFR and
MVFR, as well as drops in visibility to MVFR. Southeast winds
looks to be at their strongest, around 35 kts, this morning
through early afternoon before diminishing back to around 20 to 25
kts this evening. While the expectation is for winds to remain
predominantly out of the southeast at the surface, some northerly
flow may create periods of wind shear through the morning hours.
Southerly to southeast wind gusts increase back to around 30 kts
Wednesday morning as flow aloft shifts to up- inlet. Showers taper
off towards the end of the TAF period early Wednesday morning
with VFR conditions returning predominantly. Although, ceilings at
5000 ft along with a scattered MVFR deck are not out of the
question.

-DAN

&&



$$