560
FXAK68 PAFC 270109
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
509 PM AKDT Sat Jul 26 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3)...

Isolated showers over the Alaska Range and Talkeetna Mountains
this afternoon will continue westward. Drier conditions prevail
for the early part of the week as ridging builds in from the east
and west.

On Sunday the warm pattern continues as the region sits between
two strong upper level ridges, each over the Bering and the Yukon
Territory. High temperatures may reach the low 80s for valleys
while most of the region is expected to be in the mid-to-upper
70s. Convection should be capped, but a weak wave moving over the
interior of the state will likely bring some showers to the Alaska
Range and Denali Highway.

Conditions on Monday look to be similar, though maybe a degree or
two cooler, as an upper level trough moving through the Interior
pushes the Yukon ridge slightly to the east. Showers will again
possible late Monday into Tuesday along the Alaska Range but
otherwise the region maintains a hot, dry pattern with calm wind
through midweek.


&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Tuesday)...

The main feature of note affecting the region continues to be a
strong, blocking high centered over the Bering Sea. A large area
of marine stratus and fog trapped under the high pressure and warm
air aloft continues to drift across the Bering Sea and Aleutians,
with some spots including Shemya and the Pribilofs at times
reporting visibility down to a quarter mile or less today. Farther
to the east, much warmer and drier conditions are in place across
most of Southwest, except near a weak shortwave impulse focusing
bands of rain right along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast. North to
northwest flow set up between a low drifting over the Gulf and the
strong Bering high continues to funnel through gaps along the
Alaska Peninsula, mainly on the Pacific coastline. Gusts as strong
as 40 to 50 mph will be possible out of favored bays and passes
this evening into tonight as the shortwave to the north drops
south and further enhances the tight pressure gradient already in
place.

Little overall change to the pattern is expected for the remainder
of the weekend into early next week as the ridge axis drifts
slowly northeast towards the Pribilof Islands. Potential will
increase for parts of Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Delta to see
low stratus and fog develop over the next few mornings as the
drier northerly flow weakens and as high pressure builds with
time. Much of Southwest as a whole will continue to stay mostly
dry, though parts of the Lower Kuskokwim Valley could see showers
near weak shortwaves riding over the top of the ridge into the
Alaska Range, especially towards Sunday night into Monday.
Meanwhile, areas of rain along with southeast winds around 20 to
30 mph will follow a weak front into the western Aleutian Chain
through Monday. This front will weaken as it runs up against the
high pressure in place farther east by Tuesday. For the rest of
the Bering and Aleutians, widespread stratus and fog drifting
around the ridge will likely continue for the next few days.

-AS

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

Not many changes to the previous discussion as the forecast
remains largely on track for the long term. For Southcentral, the
weather will remain more unsettled as upper level shortwaves
emanate from a longwave trough digging over Northern Alaska. Much
of Southcentral will continue to see above average high
temperatures as the area become settled in between two surface
high pressure systems. A trough begins to move in Tuesday to the
western Bering, which will help nudge the ridge to its east more
so over Southcentral. This also means a return to more impactful
weather for the Bering and Aleutians. Any ridging looks to flatten
by Friday, allowing for storm systems to move further across the
Bering and Aleutians.


-AM/KC

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist. A weak (southeasterly) Turnagain
Arm jet will form this afternoon, while a typical sea breeze
direction (southwesterly) is in place over northern Cook Inlet.
With overall weak North to South pressure gradients and little
bend in the Turnagain jet, we often end up with a combination of a
sea breeze and some gustiness from the nearby Turnagain jet at the
terminal. The TAF reflects a slight increase of wind out of the
south. However, two other plausible solutions are a lighter
southwesterly wind and a slightly strong south-southeasterly wind
late this afternoon through this evening.

-SEB

&&


$$