052
FXAK68 PAFC 050115
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
515 PM AKDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

High pressure over interior Alaska has cleared out much of the
cloud cover across Southcentral this afternoon. This has allowed
for temperatures to warm into the 70s over much of the Copper
River Valley and also into the MatSu Valleys. The main concern
for the rest of the day will entail the potential for isolated wet
thunderstorms through the evening hours. An easterly wave of low
pressure is noted on water vapor imagery, which has already
initiated areas of convection north of the Wrangells to near
Slana, as well as further to the north and west from Paxson into
the Talkeetnas. All of this activity will track to west-southwest
through this evening. Winds have been light and variable for much
of the day, but anticipate some winds to bend into Anchorage from
the Turnagain Arm later this afternoon.

The start of the weekend will support another round of isolated
wet thunderstorms with the arrival of yet another easterly wave of
low pressure out of Canada. The main difference from today into
tomorrow will be a likely uptick in winds across Southcentral.
Gusty southerly gap winds will return to the Copper River Valley
with the Knik wind pushing into parts of Palmer by mid to late
afternoon on Saturday. Those traveling along the Turnagain Arm
will notice an increase in southeasterly winds, which should also
be felt over the Anchorage Hillside and west side of town.
Potential gusts will range from 30 to as high as 40 mph.

An area of low pressure remains forecast to bring a front into
the western Gulf by late tomorrow with increasing winds and
showers. Small craft winds will be common through the Barren
Islands and Shelikof Strait before the front continues lifting
northward into the Kenai Peninsula. By Sunday afternoon, a mild
barrier jet will result in small craft easterly winds from Canoe
Island to just outside of Prince William Sound. The combination of
increasing clouds and showers should spell a pattern change for
Southcentral with cooler temperatures and diminishing thunderstorm
chances on Sunday.


&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Monday)...

The complex low sitting between the Central Aleutians and the
Pribilofs has mostly consolidated into one area of low pressure to
the north of Dutch Harbor with a front extending southeastward
into the North Pacific. Ahead of the front, a swath of rain
extends from the Pribilofs to Sand Point with a stout
southeasterly wind, with the Pribilofs also reporting fog or low
visibility mist. Cold Bay has likely seen their peak in gap winds
with this system and wind speeds should be trending down this
afternoon with the frontal passage. Bristol Bay has a small craft
advisory in effect, which could affect Nushagak and Kvichak Bays.
Looking westward, the Western Aleutians have been reporting fog
and mist due to transient surface ridging, and that will continue
this afternoon and evening.

The area of low pressure and its front affecting the Central and
Eastern Aleutians begins to break down by midday tomorrow, but
will still bring an axis of precipitation into the AK Pen and
Bristol Bay areas. The areas of heaviest rainfall will be the
Pacific side of the Aleutian Range, which could add up to one to
two inches of rain for Perryville, Chignik, and Ivanof Bay before
the system departs. Instability looks fairly limited and mostly
confined to the north, but some convective showers or an isolated
thunderstorm is possible across the northern-most Kuskokwim Valley
Saturday afternoon. Meanwhile, farther west, a Kamchatka low
begins its approach to the Western Aleutians. Model guidance does
keep this low just south of the Western Aleutians, keeping most
rainfall offshore through Sunday morning. There is a fair amount
of spread heading into Monday regarding the low`s track and timing
as it moves eastward, with some models keeping precipitation
offshore and south of the Central Aleutians, while others clip
Adak and Atka with rainfall.


-AM

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

The long-term period begins with upper-level lows across the
southeast Gulf of Alaska/Southeast mainland Alaska and over the
Central Aleutians. Between these lows is a weak ridge across the
Southcentral and Southwestern mainlands. Expect drier conditions
towards the southern mainland coast on Tuesday with showers in the
afternoon for the interior and along the interior terrain.

Light rain moves across the Aleutian Chain from the Western
Aleutians Tuesday to the southern Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) through
Wednesday evening in association with an eastward track North
Pacific low. Showers continue across the southwestern interior and
the northern Susitna Valley Tuesday and Wednesday as an Arctic
trough digs southward. One trend from yesterday`s long-term
forecast is that this Arctic trough does not look to dig as far
south, but only as far south as the trough axis reaching Norton
Sound. Therefore, do not expect temperatures to be way lower than
normal but more slightly below normal for Southwest Alaska.

Meanwhile, the North Pacific low that tracked from the Western
Aleutians to the southern AKPEN looks to have its energy move to
the Gulf by Thursday. There are still some questions about the
exact track of the low and its timing. However, there is
reasonable confidence to say that the Southcentral coast,
including Kodiak Island, will be the wetter locations Thursday and
Friday when compared to the interior locations. Back to the west,
a Kamchatka system looks to move close the Western Aleutians by
Friday bringing another chance for rain and gusty winds by then.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist. The southeasterly Turnagain
Arm winds are expected to develop again by mid to late afternoon
and persist through late tonight.

&&


$$