Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
334
FNAK71 PAFC 120352
FWSAER
Spot Forecast for Nelchina Glacier Fire...SOA DOF
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
752 PM AKDT Fri Jul 11 2025
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 2000 AKDT on July 11.
.DISCUSSION...
Southwest winds increasing to around 10 to 15 mph is expected
through Tahneta Pass to the burn site tonight with showers
lingering Saturday morning. Winds generally relax a little bit
during the day Saturday, but a narrow swath of west-southwest
winds through Tahneta Pass remains and could stay over the burn
area through Saturday and Saturday night. These winds should
decrease by Sunday morning. Southerly wind gusts of 10 to 15 mph
may develop Sunday afternoon through the Nelchina glacier terrain
gap and partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies each afternoon that
could lead to a few stray showers. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible Saturday afternoon. Prevailing motion for showers looks
to remain from northeast to southwest over the next few days.
Sunday appears to be the warmer and slight drier day for the next
few days.
.REST OF TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers.
CWR.................40 percent.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Tstm Coverage.......None.
Min temperature.....Around 44.
Max humidity........94 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 12 to 14 mph.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 8 mph.
Pcpn amount.........0.06 inches.
Snowfall amount.....0.0 inches.
TIME (AKDT) 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........73 73 75 75 75 83 83 83 89 89
Weather cov.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
CWR.............40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40
Chc of pcpn (%).60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 80 80
Temp............55 53 51 48 47 47 45 45 44 44
RH..............64 71 77 86 90 89 92 92 94 93
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..12 12 12 12 12 14 14 14 12 12
20 FT wind gust.15 15 16 16 16 17 17 17 14 14
Mix hgt (kft)...2.1 2.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent) then becoming partly
sunny (50-60 percent). Rain showers early in
the morning, then chance of rain showers.
Slight chance of thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
CWR.................40 percent decreasing to 12 percent.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Tstm Coverage.......Isolated.
Max temperature.....Around 60.
Min humidity........58 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 12 to 14 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......2400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 8 mph.
Pcpn amount.........0.05 inches.
Snowfall amount.....0.0 inches.
TIME (AKDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........89 91 91 91 87 87 87 63 63 63 45 45
Weather cov.....DEF CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
CWR.............40 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Chc of pcpn (%).80 50 50 50 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
Temp............44 44 45 47 48 51 53 55 57 58 60 60
RH..............93 92 91 88 83 79 72 67 66 62 60 58
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..12 12 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 14
20 FT wind gust.14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.4 1.4 1.4 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.4 2.4
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.8 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (60-70 percent).
Chance of rain showers in early evening.
Slight chance thunderstorms in early evening.
CWR.................12 percent.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Tstm Coverage.......Isolated.
Min temperature.....Around 45.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 9 to 15 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms early in the
evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 6 to 10 mph.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
Snowfall amount.....0.0 inches.
TIME (AKDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........45 34 34 34 33 33 33 49 49 49 66 66
Weather cov.....CHC SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RW
CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Chc of pcpn (%).30 20 20 20 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Temp............60 59 57 55 53 50 48 47 46 46 45 46
RH..............59 63 70 77 85 91 96 99 100 99 100 100
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW W W W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..14 15 15 15 9 9 9 12 12 12 10 10
20 FT wind gust.15 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 14 14
Mix hgt (kft)...2.4 1.9 1.9 1.9 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.6 9 9 9 10 10 10 8 8 8 8 8
.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers late in the afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent decreasing to 0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Tstm Coverage.......None.
Max temperature.....Around 65.
Min humidity........47 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the
south 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Gusts from
the south 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon and
evening.
Mixing height.......4900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 8 mph shifting to the southeast
around 5 mph early in the afternoon, then
shifting to the south around 6 mph late in the
afternoon.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
Snowfall amount.....0.0 inches.
TIME (AKDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........66 76 76 76 51 51 51 34 34 34 40 40
Weather cov..... SCH SCH
Weather type.... RW RW
CWR.............10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 20
Temp............46 47 49 51 53 56 58 61 63 64 65 65
RH..............98 93 89 83 77 69 62 56 51 48 46 47
20 FT wind dir..W W W W SW SW SW S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..10 8 8 8 5 5 5 5 5 5 7 7
20 FT wind gust.14 13 13 13 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.8 1.8 1.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 4.9 4.9
Transp wind dir.W W W W SW SW SW SE SE SE S S
Transp wind spd.8 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6
$$
Forecaster...Rux
Requested by...Toby Stapleton
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2517468.4/AER
.DELDT 07/11/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL daniel.white@alaska.gov,andy_johnson@firenet.gov,toby.stapleton@usda.gov,firencolorado@gmail.com,jered.kemp@alaska.gov