608
FNAK71 PAFC 142006
FWSAER

Spot Forecast for 20mile Recovery...AST / Girdwood Fire Department
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1206 PM AKDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0800 AKDT on October 16.
.DISCUSSION...

A strong frontal system will push through the area late
Wednesday, with a surface low pressure system developing behind
the front and moving in the vicinity or into the Sound on
Thursday. The storm will then weaken in place and/or redevelop as
upper level troughs move through the area. For sensible weather,
this will mean lingering rain, especially on Thursday, with
diminishing intensity and coverage Friday. Winds should remain
light and variable in the 20 mile valley based on this forecast
track.

Total forecasted rainfall between now and 6pm Friday is 1.5 to 2
inches. Total rain accumulated since 10/13 and now is estimated to
be near 0.5 inches. The rain is expected to produce an increase
in river flows up to one ft, peaking just after the heaviest rain
early Thrusday morning and subsiding through the weekend. Higher
flows may be observed in narrow revines and canyons.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Widespread rain
                    showers.
Chance of pcpn......100 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 41.
Min humidity........91 percent.
Surface winds (mph).East winds around 7 mph early in the morning
                    becoming light.
Rainfall amount.....0.24 inches.
Snow level..........3200 ft.
CEILING (KFT).......1000 to 2000 ft.
Visibility..........1 to 3SM.
SUNSET..............6:39PM

TIME (AKDT)      8 AM      11 AM     2 PM      5 PM
Sky (%).........94        90        93        90
Weather cov.....WIDSPD    WIDSPD    WIDSPD    WIDSPD
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Chc of pcpn (%).100       90        90        90
Temp............38        39        40        41
RH..............94        97        97        95
Surface wind....E 7G15    E 3G9     E 3G8     SE 1G3
Snow lvl (kft)..3.2       3.2       3.2       3.2
Ceiling (kft)...1 to 3SM
Visibility (sm).1 to 3SM

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Widespread rain
                    showers early in the evening, then rain in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 35.
Max humidity........97 percent.
Surface winds (mph).Light winds.
Rainfall amount.....0.14 inches.
Snow level..........2400-3200 ft.
CEILING (KFT).......1000 to 2000 ft.
Visibility..........1 to 3SM.
SUNRISE.............8:42AM

TIME (AKDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky (%).........90        91        100       100
Weather cov.....WIDSPD    WIDSPD    DEFNTE    DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RAIN      RAIN
Chc of pcpn (%).90        90        80        80
Temp............40        40        39        39
RH..............96        93        91        91
Surface wind....SE 1G3    SE 1G3    NW 1G6    NW 2G7
Snow lvl (kft)..3.2       3.0       2.8       2.6


.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain likely
through early afternoon. Chance of rain late
in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 40.
Minhumidity........95 percent.
Surface winds (mph).Light winds.
Rainfall amount.....0.05 inches.
Snow level..........1900-2500 ft.
CEILING (KFT).......1000-2000 ft increasing to 4000 ft in the
afternoon
Visibility..........1-3SM increasing to 10SM in the afternoon.
SUNSET..............6:36PM

TIME (AKDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........93        93        90        90
Weather cov.....LIKELY    LIKELY    LIKELY    LIKELY
Weather type....RAIN      RAIN      RAIN      RAIN
Chc of pcpn (%).70        70        70        60
Temp............38        38        38        40
RH..............92        93        94        95
Surface wind....W 2G7     W 2G7     NW 2G6    NW 1G6
Snow lvl (kft)..2.4       2.1       1.9       2.5
Ceiling (kft)...1000-2000 ft increasing to 4000 ft in the
afternoon
Visibility (sm).1-3SM increasing to 10SM in the afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY OCTOBER 23 THROUGH WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 29...

There is considerable uncertainty for the weather late Friday and
into the weekend. Much colder air will move in aloft and some
model guidance redevelops the through more agreessively, but there
is fairly high confidence that ridging and dry northwest flow
will develop Saturday. For now, flying conditions appear to be the
best on Saturday. Another strong storm may enter the region as
early as late Sunday, but forecast confidence and model agreement
on the track and placement of this feature is poor at best.

$$
Forecaster...Jones
Requested by...Manch Garhart
Type of request...SAR
.TAG 2523529.0/AER
.DELDT 10/14/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL manch.garhart@girdwoodfire.com