896
FNAK71 PAFC 050344
FWSAER

Spot Forecast for Nelchina Glacier Fire...SOA DOF
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
744 PM AKDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 2000 AKDT on July 04.

.DISCUSSION...

Clouds will increase overnight as southwest winds persist across
the forecast area through around 8 AM before diminishing in
magnitude. An upper-level wave will move across the Copper River
Basin tomorrow, resulting in the development of scattered showers
and thunderstorms along the north-facing and west-facing foothills
of the Chugach and Talkeetna mountains, respectively, including
around the Tahneta Pass and Eureka areas. The best chance for
showers and thunderstorms will be from early afternoon through
early evening. This setup will be similar to the conditions
observed Wednesday afternoon and evening. Any thunderstorms that
may develop have the potential for brief heavy rain, gusty winds,
and frequent lightning. Chances for showers and thunderstorms
diminish quickly by Saturday night as southwest winds persist
through Saturday night and into early Sunday morning before
becoming light and variable. Sunday remains mostly cloudy with
another chance for isolated rain showers in the afternoon along
with increasing southwest winds.


.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) overnight.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Tstm Coverage.......None.
Min temperature.....Around 45.
Max humidity........91 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 11 mph this evening
through the overnight hours. Then light and
variable by mid morning Saturday.
Mixing height.......3200 ft AGL this evening fall to around 300
ft AGL by early morning Saturday.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 7 mph becoming south by mid
morning Saturday.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers developing around noon, then rain
                    showers likely with slight chance of
thunderstorms early afternoon through late
evening.
CWR.................20 percent.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent increasing to 60 percent by early
afternoon.
Tstm Coverage.......Isolated.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........48 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 5 mph in the morning
increasing to 8 to 14 mph in the afternoon.
Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL in the morning rising to around
3800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 5 mph increasing to 10 mph
in the afternoon.
Pcpn amount.........0.06 inches.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers in the evening.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent in the evening decreasing to 20
percent after midnight.
Tstm Coverage.......Isolated.
Min temperature.....Around 48.
Max humidity........83 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 14 mph becoming light and
variable by mid morning Sunday.
Mixing height.......3200 ft AGL in the evening falling to around
300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 10 mph becoming east around 6 mph
by early Sunday morning.
Pcpn amount.........0.02 inches.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Isolated rain
showers in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Tstm Coverage.......None.
Max temperature.....Around 60.
Min humidity........45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 5 mph in the morning
                    becoming southwest 6 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL in the morning rising to around
4000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East around 8 mph.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

$$
Forecaster...Markle
Requested by...Ben Englehardt
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2516889.5/AER
.DELDT 07/04/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jered.kemp@alaska.gov,lonnie.cawston.mtf@colvilletribes.com,daniel.white@alaska.gov,akacdc@firenet.gov,fireinalaska@yahoo.com