Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Versions:
1
2
080
FNUS73 KABR 281650
FWSABR
Spot Forecast for Wildfire Spot...USDA Forest Service
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1150 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1200 CDT on July 28.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
.DISCUSSION...
There is a Moderate risk (level 4 out of 5) for a line of severe
storms to move through the burn site this afternoon into the
evening. There is lower confidence in this timing as models are
not in a lot of agreement at the moment. These storms are forecast
to develop over western SD around mid-day and move southeastward
over the state. The main threat for these storms is winds of 80+
mph with an additional threat for hail greater than an inch in
diameter and an isolated tornado or two.
Before the storms move through the burn site, there will be east
southeasterly winds that could gust up to 20 mph. Once the line of
storms moves through, the winds will be from the northeast around
15 mph and could gust up to 20 mph.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (35-45 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms late in the
afternoon. Chance of showers and thunderstorms
late in the afternoon.
CWR.................7 percent.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Chance of lightning.32 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 100.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 6 to 10 mph shifting to the
northeast 15 to 16 mph late in the afternoon.
Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......2500-6000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southeast 15 to 16 mph shifting to the
northeast around 17 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (34500 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (78100 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
TIME (CDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........32 25 32 40 46 58
Weather cov..... SCH CHC
Weather type.... RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).0 10 10 10 20 40
Chc of ltng (%).0 0 0 10 20 30
Temp............83 87 89 92 96 91
RH..............72 63 61 53 43 49
20 FT wind dir..E E E E NE NE
20 FT wind spd..6 7 7 10 15 16
20 FT wind gust.12 14 14 17 24 24
Mix hgt (kft)...2.5 3.0 4.1 5.2 6.0 3.9
Smoke Dispersal.PR FR FR GD GD FR
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms early in the evening,
then chance of showers and thunderstorms early
in the evening. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms late in the evening.
CWR.................7 percent increasing to 31 percent early in the
evening, then decreasing to 20 percent late in
the evening decreasing to 7 percent overnight.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Chance of lightning.36 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 63.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 13 to 16 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......900-2900 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northeast 15 to 24 mph shifting to the north 13
to 15 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (46900 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (12100 knot-ft) late in the
night.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........49 53 59 80 60 41 48 50 44 53 57 74
Weather cov.....SCH CHC CHC CHC SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........SCH CHC CHC CHC SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).20 30 40 30 20 10 10 10 0 0 10 0
Chc of ltng (%).30 30 40 30 20 10 10 10 0 0 10 0
Temp............90 84 82 79 76 73 71 70 68 67 65 64
RH..............50 61 63 72 74 81 87 87 93 97 100 100
20 FT wind dir..NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
20 FT wind spd..16 16 16 16 16 15 14 14 14 13 13 13
20 FT wind gust.25 23 23 23 23 23 21 20 20 20 20 20
Mix hgt (kft)...2.9 2.1 1.8 1.3 1.3 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.3
Smoke Dispersal.FR FR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent).
CWR.................3 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Chance of lightning.10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........53 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 13 to 15 mph shifting to the
east around 15 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1100-4800 ft agl.
Transport winds.....East 13 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (12100 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (66500 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........63 79 73 66 55 68 62 55 59 63 67 66
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Chc of ltng (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Temp............64 63 65 65 69 72 75 79 80 82 83 82
RH..............100 100 97 97 84 76 69 60 58 55 53 55
20 FT wind dir..NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE E E E
20 FT wind spd..13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 15
20 FT wind gust.20 20 20 20 21 22 22 23 23 23 23 23
Mix hgt (kft)...1.4 1.1 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.6 3.2 3.8 4.3 4.6 4.8 4.5
Smoke Dispersal.PR PR PR PR PR PR FR FR FR GD GD GD
$$
Forecaster...Vernon
Requested by...Tyler Brown
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2518742.0/ABR
.DELDT 07/28/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL tgbrown1836@gmail.com