490
FNUS73 KABR 292010
FWSABR

Spot Forecast for Northeast Jones County Fire...USDA Forest Service
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
310 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1500 CDT on July 29.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms with moderate to heavy
rain and cloud to ground lightning will overspread the site late
this afternoon. Prevailing winds will remain from the northeast,
gusting to around 20 mph, but passing showers and storms may bring
erratic wind direction/gusts into the evening hours. Heavy rain is
possible as well, perhaps over 1 inch. Additional shower and
thunderstorm activity is possible during the overnight hours.
Prevailing wind direction is forecast to remain from the
northeast, or even east-northeast on Wednesday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely late in the afternoon.
CWR.................80 percent.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Chance of lightning.70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........48 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 12 to 15 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......3800-4300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....East around 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (49500 knot-ft).

TIME (CDT)      3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........81  84  90
Weather cov.....CHC LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CH CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).70  80  60
Chc of ltng (%).60  70  50
Temp............85  86  86
RH..............51  51  53
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  E
20 FT wind spd..12  15  15
20 FT wind gust.20  22  23
Mix hgt (kft)...4.2 4.3 3.8
Smoke Dispersal.FR  FR  FR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely.
CWR.................14 percent increasing to 47 percent early in
                    the evening, then increasing to 58 percent late
                    in the evening increasing to 68 percent
                    overnight decreasing to 53 percent decreasing
                    to 42 percent early in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Chance of lightning.57 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 62.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 14 to 16 mph decreasing to 13
                    to 14 mph overnight. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms late in the evening. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    overnight.
Mixing height.......600-3300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northeast 12 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (43300 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (6300 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........88  85  89  92  95  92  90  87  86  84  83  86
Weather cov.....LKY CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).60  40  50  50  60  60  70  70  70  60  50  50
Chc of ltng (%).40  40  50  50  60  60  60  30  30  30  30  30
Temp............84  83  81  76  75  72  71  70  68  68  67  65
RH..............55  58  63  73  73  81  81  84  91  88  95  100
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E   NE  N   N
20 FT wind spd..16  15  14  14  14  14  14  13  13  14  14  14
20 FT wind gust.23  23  22  21  21  21  20  20  20  20  21  21
Mix hgt (kft)...3.0 3.3 1.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Smoke Dispersal.FR  FR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms early in the morning, then
                    slight chance of showers in the late morning
                    and afternoon. Slight chance of thunderstorms
                    late in the afternoon.
CWR.................38 percent decreasing to 7 percent.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Chance of lightning.29 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 14 to 17 mph increasing to 17
                    to 18 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......600-5400 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northeast 13 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (76200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........90  93  81  69  57  52  48  43  42  41  40  38
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC             SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).40  40  30  30  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  10
Chc of ltng (%).30  30  30  30  10  10  10  20  20  20  20  10
Temp............64  64  63  65  68  70  73  75  77  79  78  80
RH..............100 98  100 96  86  80  70  67  62  58  57  55
20 FT wind dir..N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..14  15  15  15  16  17  17  18  17  17  17  17
20 FT wind gust.21  23  23  23  24  24  25  26  26  26  25  25
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.8 1.3 1.6 2.3 3.1 3.6 4.3 5.1 5.4 5.3 5.0
Smoke Dispersal.PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD

$$
Forecaster...TMT
Requested by...Tyler Brown
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2518816.0/ABR
.DELDT 07/29/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL douglas.gordon@usda.gov