588
FXUS63 KABR 141714
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1214 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A dangerous and prolonged heat wave will continue through this
week with temperatures and heat index values warming into the triple
digits each afternoon.

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect for north central, central, and
portions of northeastern SD and west central MN through Thursday.

- Elevated fire weather concerns are possible Wednesday afternoon
and evening mainly along and west of the Missouri River due to the
combination of low relative humidity, gusty winds of 20 to 30 mph,
and drying fuels.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

While heights aloft barely budge until Sunday, the sfc pattern
becomes more transient as a series of weak troughs/fronts move
through starting on Thursday. Until then, the region is in a holding
pattern as sfc low pressure sits over the Rockies and southerly
winds continue to draw up heat. Temperatures and heat indices in the
90s to low 100s are still expected through Saturday. Blended in a
little BCConsAll and ConsShort for Ts and Tds to offset the NBM
high/low bias, accordingly. Caa creeps in across the northeast
Friday night with a brief compression of the ridge. A stronger upper
trough collapses the ridge Sunday night, though long range NBM holds
the 90s intact until Tuesday when highs fall into the 80s.

ConsShort is less impressed with wind potential on Wednesday than
the NBM. Lowering the temps a couple of degrees also keeps RH above
20 percent. However, elevated fire concerns with southeast winds
gusting to 25 mph are still probable west river. Not adding any
headlines at this time. The forecast remains mostly dry even in the
long range with chances for showers below 20 percent and no QPF.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ Thursday for
     SDZ003>011-015>018-021-033>037-045-048-051.
MN...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT Thursday for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20