327
FXUS63 KABR 281721 AAD
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1221 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- SLIGHT RISK (2 of 5) again for this afternoon. Wind and hail are
  the primary threats, though can`t rule out a tornado or two in
  far eastern SD/western MN.

- Another cluster of storms (40-60% coverage) coming up from the
  southwest early Sunday morning for central South Dakota before
  spreading east through the morning. Low risk of severe weather.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1011 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

While the bulk of the showers and thunderstorms are exiting into
MN this morning, there are a few scattered showers developing
along the sfc trough this morning. May need a few hourly tweaks to
pops to cover the new development. Otherwise, no major changes are
planned to the current forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Cluster of storms in North Dakota threatens the northern CWA if any
of the stronger storms decides to deviate to the right on a 320-340
degree trajectory. Otherwise we just have some weak convection
smattered across the CWA mainly east river. All this is covered by
current POPs. There is the question of whether this will get more
organized overnight and lay down enough outflow to influence the
final location for a surface trough ahead of a low across eastern
South Dakota as a location for re-development later today. The
responsible shortwave is taking its time moving east, so CAMS have
highlighted this area for another round of potential severe weather.
Additionally, another wave, back into  Wyoming will make it into
western South Dakota this evening.  Strongest activity would be out
towards the hills region, however as the wave continues east
northeast elevated convection could be coming into the Missouri
valley towards the morning hours Sunday.

So, for this afternoon, profiles indicate decent mid-level flow of
40kts, though jet level winds are pretty weak with the 200mb jet
over North Dakota. 1/2km winds are about 25kts down in the southeast
CWA before they decouple as a low level jet forms southeast of the
CWA. CAPE is once again up to between 3500-4000j/kg but with only
30kts 0-6 km shear. Thats enough shear for supercell
characteristics, but with westerly mid-levels outflows will also
impact storm mode. And the frontal boundary shifts storms out of the
CWA before the low level jet influences storm mode.

There is the shortwave out west that CAMS have latched onto. Better
shear environment remains to the north, with steeper mid-level lapse
rates up that way, while down into central South Dakota its a weaker
shear/weaker MUCAPE environment. Will probably just end up with
early morning pulse convection in central SD.

An upper level trough sets overhead for Sunday, with weak high
pressure. We get clipped by a backdoor front Monday with a brief
cool down. A broad weak ridge builds in from the west for the middle
of next week, with a series of weak ridge riders keeping POPs in the
forecast mainly for the latter half of next week. No major thermal
anomalies though 700mb temperatures are creeping up towards +14 by
Thursday/Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Added and adjusted prob30 groups for all taf sites with potential
for showers and thunderstorms ramping up again after 21z and
continuing into Sunday morning. KATY has the highest chance of
seeing severe storms between 22z and 02z. Future adjustments will
likely be needed. Vsby/cigs may fall to MVFR in heavier rain.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...20
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...20