405
FXUS63 KABR 132325 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
625 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unsettled weather is back, with threats for strong to severe
  storms into at least Friday.

- Hot and humid Thursday with highs/heat index values near 100 in
  central South Dakota. Those sensitive to high heat may want to
  take precautions.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 624 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Aviation discussion has been updated in accordance with the 00Z
TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Wave of energy evident on water vapor continues moving eastward
across the region, generating showers and thunderstorms in rather
large coverage. Have updated PoPs several times throughout the day
to keep up with current trends that models seem to have a tough time
latching on to. Will then be watching the next wave moving into the
region by this evening, which is shown also on water vapor imagery
moving eastward across MT/WY. This second wave is likely to bring
increasing shower and thunderstorm activity to western/central SD
late afternoon into the evening hours. Further east across northeast
SD, the development of a low-level jet overnight should aid in
additional convection across the region. Best chance for organized
severe storms still looks to be across the southwest CWA by evening
from whatever develops across western SD and begins to move east-
southeast towards central/south central SD. For the low-level jet
induced convection overnight, MUCAPE values around 1000 J/KG should
lead to a marginally severe threat.

Cold front moves across the region late in the day on Thursday, with
additional chances for thunderstorms. Timing is a bit tricky as
there looks to be a departing mid-level wave earlier in the day,
with subsidence likely in its wake for much of the day. Strong
daytime heating and increased instability should lead to at least
isolated coverage of storms across portions of the CWA by early
evening.

As for temperatures, hot conditions are expected on Thursday, with
widespread 80s and 90s. Central SD will be flirting with 100
degrees. Dewpoints look to be rising into the 60s to around 70
degrees, so heat indices will be something to follow. Latest
apparent T grids show heat index values around 100 degrees over
portions of the southwest CWA. Still a bit too marginal to go with
any type of a heat headlines, but something to monitor for the
overnight forecast package.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 624 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected this
evening. First, showers to weak thunderstorms persist over eastern
South Dakota this evening, and are expected to continue moving
eastward. Some of these storms may produce strong wind gusts of 40
to 50 miles per hour. Ceilings and visibilities will mainly remain
in VFR status, but may drop to MVFR in the strongest storms. After
these storms move out, a low-level jet will take hold, placing
eastern South Dakota in a region of strong wind shear overnight.

Second round of thunderstorms will move over central South Dakota
this evening, with a high likelihood of producing strong to severe
winds. Ceilings and visibility may also drop to MVFR status this
evening as the strongest storms move through.

Beyond this evening,VFR conditions will persist through the rest of
the TAF period. However, there are some slight chances (~15-20%) for
additional thunderstorms tomorrow evening.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BC
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...BC