897
FXUS63 KABR 031138 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
638 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds out of the northwest will gust 30 to 40 mph Monday
afternoon, with locally higher gusts possible.

- High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be around 10 to 20
degrees below normal.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 12Z TAFS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

As of 1am the cold front that passed over the CWA earlier is now off
to our southeast with the center of the high pressure system just
off to our northwest. Current temps range in the 50s with winds out
of the northwest between 10-15 mph. This high will track southeast
through the morning and over SD/NE by 18Z, before tracking more
southeast and over NE/IA by 00Z. This high will keep the CWA dry as
CAMs/NBM indicate weak showers staying mostly west and southwest of
the CWA per weak embedded shortwave activity and this area being
east of a frontal boundary along the Rockies. Another clipper, and
stronger, will track southeast out of northwest Canada, with the
center of the ~991mb low over the border of Manitoba/Ontario by 00Z.
Late tonight through Monday morning, its strong cold front will
track northwest to southeast across the CWA with the northern half
of SD behind the fropa by 12Z Monday with the low (down to 986mb!)
over central Ontario. By mid morning or so, the fropa will exit
southeastern SD with the entire CWA in north/northwest flow by this
time.

As the low tracks closer to the region, winds will turn more
westerly and increase late this afternoon as the pressure gradient
steepen a bit (~4mb) over the CWA along with daytime mixing. Gusts
of 20-30 mph or so is possible as HRRR/NSSL show this while other
HREF members are a bit weaker. Winds may diminish for a few hours
once we lose mixing but will increase again early Monday morning and
will continue to increase behind the fropa per CAA/pressure rises in
the morning and daytime mixing by the afternoon. Went with the
previous shift and continued with a blend of NBM/NBM90th 18Z today-
00Z Tuesday to show the potential for higher gusts. Winds should
stay below advisory criteria as prob of gusts>45 mph is 20% or less
per HREF and NBM. NBM 24hr max wind gusts highlight the potential of
wind gusts 40-45 mph with possibly hitting 50 mph over the northern
portion of the Leola Hills and northern Corson County. Winds will be
diminishing Monday evening once we lose mixing and relaxing pressure
gradients.

Precipitation chances with this clipper will be minimal once again
as we have mid level moisture, but lots of dry air below 800mb per
inverted V soundings and PWAT values only up 0.8". Cams do indicate
a broken line of post frontal showers along the ND/SD border 12Z
Monday but depending which model you look at, showers either fizzle
out or weaken the further south/southeast they go into the CWA.
There could also be the chance of spotty convective showers here and
there over the CWA Monday afternoon and evening with additional
shortwave energy and mid level jet and mixing. So any precip
that could occur would be light. Latest NBM has pops of 20% or
less. With the inverted V soundings, if we do get showers any
stronger shower could lead to brief gusty winds (up to 50 mph).
Probability of QPF>0.01 is only 30-40% west of the Mo River.

Otherwise Monday night into Tuesday the region will be on the
southeastern side of a high pressure system over
Alberta/Saskatchewan with it tracking southeastward and over the
region by Wednesday morning, keeping conditions overall dry.
Additional chances of moisture are possible Wednesday afternoon and
again Friday evening (15-25%) per weak waves aloft within this
ongoing northwest flow.

Temps today will be a tad cooler ranging in the mid 60s to the lower
70s with overnight lows in the 40s to the lower 50s. Cooler Monday
behind the cold front with highs in the upper 50s to the lower 60s.
We will really see temps bottom out with the incoming high Tuesday
and Wednesday with highs only in the upper 40s and 50s Tuesday and
ranging in the 50s for Wednesday. Don`t put any temperature
sensitive plants out yet as morning lows Tuesday through Thursday
will be near or below freezing. Temps will gradually warm up by the
end of next week as ridge that has been over the western Conus will
broaden and shift eastward with highs overall in the 60s to around
70.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

All terminals will continue to experience VFR conditions through
this forecast cycle. Northwest winds will begin to increase by
late morning and turn gusty through the afternoon before
becoming more west to southwest by late afternoon into this
evening.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Vipond
DISCUSSION...MMM
AVIATION...Vipond