197
FXUS63 KABR 151133 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
533 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures well above normal will continue today and Monday.
  Much of the area will flirt with record high temperatures today.

- Warm temperatures, low dew points, and strong wind gusts will
  all combine to create elevated fire weather concerns today,
  particularly over south central South Dakota. A Red Flag Warning
  is in effect from 12 PM CST through 6 PM CST today for Jones,
  Lyman and Buffalo counties.

- Precipitation chances (60-80%) return Tuesday. Rain is expected
  initially, transitioning to snow Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 519 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Well above normal temperatures continue today (and to a lesser
extent Monday) due to a broad upper-level ridge in place. Near
record temperatures are anticipated today, with highs in the upper
50s to low 60s expected. Southerly winds will advect dry air into
the region, keeping dew points in the low 20s to potentially even
upper teens over south central South Dakota. With afternoon wind
gusts peaking around 25 miles per hour for a few hours, confidence
has increased in Red Flag conditions. Therefore, the Fire Weather
Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for Jones, Lyman, and
Buffalo counties. Elsewhere, humidity will be a bit higher and winds
a bit lower, keeping those areas below criteria.

Upper-level ridge will progress eastward beginning Monday, giving
way to an upper-level trough that will develop a low pressure
center into the Northern Plains. QPF amounts Tuesday through
Wednesday have held mostly steady (perhaps a slight drop) over the
past 24 hours, with ensemble medians ranging from a quarter to
half an inch of liquid equivalent precipitation. However,
increasing confidence in temperatures remaining above freezing
overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning has delayed the
transition from rain to snow until the passage of the cold front
Wednesday morning, after the majority of the precipitation will
have fallen. This of course significantly limits the amount of
snow that will fall, with the expectation now being that
northeastern South Dakota may see a couple of inches of
accumulation at the most. The caveat to the reduced totals is that
afternoon winds will be upwards of 30 knots, which when combined
with falling snow will likely cause visibility reductions,
potentially significant at times.

Another round of precipitation is expected to move in on Thursday
due to a shortwave aloft. This time, all snow is anticipated,
centered over central South Dakota. At this point just a couple of
inches at the most expected, but afternoon wind gusts around 30
knots will once again be the greatest concern, reducing visibilities
when combined with falling snow.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 519 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through early Monday morning.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for
     SDZ045-048-051.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...10