450
FXUS63 KABR 231141 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
641 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures through Monday will run about 5 to 15 degrees
  below normal, meaning highs is the 60s and 70s with lows in the
  40s and 50s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 12Z TAFS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 148 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Overall dry weather and Fall-like temperatures expected through the
middle of next week. Northwest flow aloft continues as the region is
in between a ridge over the western CONUS and trough over the
eastern CONUS with Clusters overall agreeing on this pattern
continuing through the midweek. Clusters then show the ridge finally
starting to push slowly eastward towards the end of week into the
weekend. Models do diverge from each other at this point on exact
timing and amplitude of the ridge as it does so. At the surface high
pressure will be the main feature through Tuesday, before shifting
off towards the southeast Wednesday. With this stable air mass in
place, conditions are expected to remain dry with models/NBM not
really hinting at any precip (15-25%) until the end of next week.
Only caveat is that our far eastern CWA could see isolated sprinkles
from the low clouds/weak energy pulses on the backside of the upper
level low late this afternoon and evening. HRRR/HiResARW/NSSL-WFR
show this potential so added sprinkle (10%) mention.

NAEFS indicates 700-850mb temperatures will run about 2 standard
deviations below normal through Tuesday before we start to see
temperatures run back around average for the middle to end of next
week. Overall highs will range in the mid 60s to the upper 70s
through Monday with the coolest temps over the Coteau and warmest
along and west of the Missouri River. Lows will range in the 40s and
50s. These temps run about 5 to 15 degrees below normal with EC EFI
for both TMAX/TMIN values ranging from -0.6 to -0.9 through Monday.
Jump ahead to Wednesday and temps will be back in the mid/upper 70s
to mid 80s, which is about average for this time of year. NBM 25-
75th spread is about 4 to 5 degrees though Tuesday, which is not bad
and gives us higher confidence on these forecasted temps. However,
the spread increases to as much as 10 degrees for the end of next
week due to how fast or slow the warmer air moves in with the ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 633 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions with north to northwest winds gusting between 20-25
knots are expected at all terminals today and through most of
this TAF cycle. There will be some SCT/BKN high end MVFR to low
end VFR cigs around KATY through late afternoon or early evening.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Vipond
DISCUSSION...MMM
AVIATION...Vipond