050
FXUS63 KABR 130459 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1159 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wildfire smoke will keep visibilities down to 2-5 miles over
  northeastern SD and west central MN, before improving west to
  east overnight.

- There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather
  late Monday afternoon and evening, with a 50% chance of
  precipitation.

- There will be a noticeable cool-down on Wednesday and Thursday,
  with highs potentially 10 to 15 degrees below normal.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Aviation discussion updated below for the 06Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 842 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Smoke continues to reduce visibility to between 3-6 miles across
the eastern CWA, mainly east of the James River. Made some minor
adjustments to the smoke departure timing tonight based on the
latest HRRR run, which has handled things well with this latest
round of smoke. All signs continue to point to the smoke
eventually pushing eastward and out of the CWA tonight.

As for the rest of the forecast tonight, winds will gradually
switch to the south-southwest (already beginning to see this) as
temps drop into the upper 50s and low 60s by sunrise Sunday. Other
than keeping up with areal coverage/placement of smoke mention,
very little in the way of changes to the forecast for the
overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

At 19Z, the latest Goecolor satellite imagery showed a thick ribbon
on smoke stretching across the eastern Dakotas. Visibilities east of
this ribbon have been between 2 and 6SM. On either side of the
thicker smoke, fair weather cumulus clouds have developed. Despite
the smoke, temperatures have been able to rise into the 70s to near
80 degrees early this afternoon. Taking a look at he solar radiation
sensors from the SDState Mesonet platforms, there has been about a
10% reduction in solar radiation due to the smoke over the James
River Valley.

Taking a look at the afternoon weather map, we have surface high
over KS and southern NE extending a ridge up through eastern SD and
western MN. The main 500mb trough that was overhead this morning has
shifted into MN, with northwesterly flow lingering over the Dakotas.
Ridging aloft will be the theme for the next few days, along with
increasing temperature. A weak/dry cold front will cross the area
during the day Sunday.  Temperatures will rise into the mid 80s to
low 90s Sunday afternoon, highest west of the James River. Highs
Monday will be mainly in the 90s, with a few locations flirting with
100 degrees near and west of the MO River.

Look for increasing dewpoints, into the upper 50s and mid 60s,
Monday as winds shift out of the south. CAPE values will near 1k
J/kg Monday afternoon into the early evening hours, closer to the
surface trough set up over western SD. The surface low looks to push
across central SD by around daybreak Tuesday and be to our southeast
by mid afternoon Tuesday. Thunderstorm chances look to return Monday
and Tuesday. The SPC day 3 outlook highlight our 5 northwestern most
counties in the marginal risk area (level 1 out of 5) for Monday
afternoon and evening.

We could see more Canadian wildfire smoke returning Tuesday, but
it`s not a guarantee. The specific wind direction will make a big
difference, on if the winds are more out of the west or northwest
aloft. We will not be putting any mention of smoke in the forecast
that far out. Check out the latest on the smoke near the surface and
potential impacts from the EPA at airnow.gov

Highs Wednesday and Thursday will be mainly in the 70s, with only a
slow return to the upper 70s and to mid 80s by next Saturday. The
chance of precipitation beyond Wednesday diminish to less than
climatology, generally at or below 25% for any 12-hour period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Smoke (FU) will be exiting the area overnight, but there may be some
lingering 6SM VSBY at KATY at the very start of the TAF period.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast through the period. South-
southwest winds overnight will become northwest during the day
Sunday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...TMT