136
FXUS63 KABR 090218 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
818 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 10 to 15 degree below normal temperatures through Sunday night,
with wind chills down around zero Sunday morning.

- Above normal temperatures return for the Tuesday - Friday
timeframe.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 814 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

All precipitation has exited the region this evening. Now just
watching satellite trends as the stratus deck progresses from
northwest to southeast, with areas of clearing upstream. These
clearing areas will have an impact on overnight temperatures.
However, overall temperature trends are mostly on track. KABR is a
bit slower to drop, but has been under persistent cloud cover
where other locations have had occasional breaks. Northwest winds
remain gusty and will continue through the night, but should let
up some as the pressure gradient starts to shift east/slacken.
Wind chill is still expected be the coldest of the season so far
by early Sunday morning (single digits to near zero). No major
changes to the going forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 536 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

See the updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFS below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 223 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

A storm system that brought light, accumulating snowfall to parts of
the CWA is pushing southeast of the region. As of 20Z, light,
sporadic snow continues, with regional radar returns showing little
pcpn in North Dakota. The pcpn should exit the CWA around 0Z, with
dry conditions for the reminder of the short term portion of the
forecast. A cold high pressure currently over central Saskatchewan,
will sink southward tonight through Sunday and will produce the
coldest air so far this season. Low temperatures for tonight is a
little difficult, due to winds and cloud cover. If the winds
subside and clouds clear, model guidance suggests overnight lows
about five degrees colder, or in the single digits and low teens
above zero. If the environment remains well mixed, or a mostly
cloudy night, lows could be +5 degrees warmer, or in the upper
teens and mid 20s. NBM guidance appears realistic at this time.

The surface high pressure should be over the region on Sunday, with
high temperatures mostly in the 20s and low 30s. These readings are
10 to 15 degrees below average for this time of year. While the NBM
is slightly on the higher side guidance, lowering the forecast high
a degree or two does not change the cold message. Apparent T
values drop to within a few degrees on either side of zero Sunday
night into Monday morning.

Low temperatures Sunday night should be a few degrees colder, with
reading in the single digits on mid teens. Sunday night will feature
less mixing winds and a mostly clear sky.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 223 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

The long term starts Monday morning with upper level winds out of
the north. We have a low pressure system off to our southeast with a
ridge coming in from the west. An upper level disturbance moves
across eastern SD Tuesday and another ridge moves in Friday into
Saturday.

Not really expecting anything in the way of active weather through
the period. Temperatures will warm up into the 50s on Tuesday as
some much warmer air moves into the region. This will continue
through the end of the period as another round of WAA starts
Thursday and lasts through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 536 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR CIGs will occur for the first few hours of the TAF period.
However, satellite trends show breaks in cloud cover upstream, so
will see improving trends with time, but expect there to be periods
of variability between MVFR/VFR until VFR conditions become the
prevailing category. Breezy northwest winds persist through the
next 24 hours. No reduction to VSBYs expected.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Serr
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...Serr