539
FXUS63 KABR 042332 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
632 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 50-80 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms
  tonight. Some storms will be strong to severe and capable of
  producing localized strong wind gusts and heavy rain.

- Heavy rain will be a primary threat from thunderstorms tonight
  into Saturday morning. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2+ inches
  remains possible through tonight mainly east of the Missouri
  River. Localized areas could exceed 2 inches, especially over
  portions of north central through northeastern SD into west
  central MN.

- The weather pattern stays active into early next week with
  additional thunderstorm chances Saturday night/Sunday morning
  and again Monday afternoon/evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Made some minor tweaks to hourly pops through tonight. Otherwise,
forecast remain on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

The main focus here will surround chances for showers and
thunderstorms tonight into Saturday morning and then again during
the course of the holiday weekend into early next week. Upper
disturbance currently visible on WV/Satl tracking northeastward out
of the central Plains/Northern High Plains area into the Northern
Plains. Sfc troughing remains situated north to south across central
portions of SD with a sfc cold front draped across portions of
central and western ND. Convection has been firing along or invof of
the sfc trough since late morning/early afternoon with activity
becoming more numerous the last couple of hours.

As the sfc features slowly shift east and southeast late this
afternoon into this evening, thunderstorm activity is likely to
continue in a favorable environment. Temperatures ahead of the sfc
cold front have warmed into the upper 80s to mid 90s with high dew
point temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. This has yielded
MLCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg. The only caveat right now has
been the lack of adequate deep layer shear. Values have been around
20-25 kts so far this afternoon. This is expected to remain the case
the rest of the afternoon with some enhancement in our eastern zones
expected this evening as a low level jet begins to strengthen.
Steeper low level lapse rates and higher cloud bases will favor
localized strong wind gusts of 60-70+ mph with any of the strongest
cells. Updraft strength in this environment will be robust enough to
create a more water laden atmosphere and and water loaded downbursts
or microbursts capable of producing more intense localized wind
gusts. PWATs are generally running 1.5-2 inches which indicates
these storms have large amounts of moisture to work off of. This
lends to the concern of flooding situations developing, especially
in areas that already have saturated soils of northeast SD and west
central MN.

Consensus from model guidance tracks this line of storms eastward
through the mid to late evening closer to the eastern side of our
forecast area by the end of that time range. Most of the robust
convection should be done by midnight but can`t rule out residual
precipitation continuing into the overnight in our east. This
activity should begin to wane during the daylight hours of Saturday
morning with sfc ridging nosing in from the northwest and low
amplitude ridging aloft in the mid levels. This will lead to a dry
day for all of our western CWA and a most of the afternoon across
our eastern zones. Cooler temperatures and dew point temperatures
will infiltrate the forecast area through the course of the holiday
weekend. Another mid level wave quickly will approach the region
late Saturday into early Sunday and lead to another round of
potentially strong to severe storms across central SD overnight
Saturday night into Sunday morning. The active pattern continues
early next week with another chance for storms Monday afternoon into
early Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will deteriorate late tonight at KABR and KATY as
cigs fall to MVFR and IFR, respectively. This evening,
thunderstorms are moving east of KABR but will continue to affect
KATY through 4z as the whole line slowly shifts east. Heavy rain
and gusty winds will be the main concerns.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...20
DISCUSSION...Vipond
AVIATION...20