328
FXUS63 KABR 022327
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
527 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A mix of rain, freezing rain, snow and sleet will continue into
  this evening before eventually settling into a few flurries
  Wednesday morning.

- Very cold air across the region Wednesday and Wednesday night,
  with lows in the single digits below and teens below zero. Wind
  chills may reach 15 below to 25 below zero in the James River
  valley.

- Snow chances (20-40%) return Friday/Saturday and Monday as more
  weather systems have the potential to move through the region.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 526 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

We continue to monitor the light precipitation across the
forecast area, ranging from light rain around Pierre to drizzle at
Bismarck. Over our eastern counties, light snow is the main
precipitation type when it is precipitating. Small pockets of
drizzle or freezing drizzle remain possible through 06Z. The
Winter Weather Advisory for light icing remains for Spink and
Clark Counties until 9pm CT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

At 1 PM CST, vigorous warming event ongoing from west to east across
the CWA. Most of the forecast area west of Brown/Spink counties have
to or above the freezing mark. From Brown/Spink counties eastward,
temperatures are warming through the upper teens and 20s. One batch
of precipitation has moved across the CWA, producing sleet and
freezing rain, earlier, across portions of central South Dakota.
Currently, this area of light radar returns is working through the
James River valley, producing snow, sleet and freezing rain. The
temperature disparity is a warm front moving east across the CWA.
Out ahead of the boundary, winds are generally south, while behind
the boundary, winds have become breezy at 10 to 25 mph with some
higher gusts out of the west. Additional light to moderate
precipitation (rain) is working into the west river (Missouri River
valley) forecast zones at this time.

From late this afternoon through tonight, will be watching how the
low level WAA pattern affects p-type across portions of central and
northeast South Dakota until the cold front sweeping in from the
north turns off the warm air and low level CAA pushing the thermal
profile completely below the freezing mark, CWA-wide, establishing
an all snow p-type for the rest of the night. Until then, most of
central South Dakota should be warm enough through a deep enough
near surface layer to support plain rain. Further north and east
into the James River valley (and perhaps up on the Coteau in Clark
County), the zone for sleet/freezing rain potential merits
consideration for a winter weather advisory for "wintry mix" until
~03Z, when the cold fropa should cool things down to an all snow
scenario. With the cold frontal forcing and post frontal CAA, there
may be a period of time before the stratus cools down enough to
touch the DGZ and light snow/flurries could happen late tonight into
Wednesday morning. Until then, (while the stratus layer is cooling
through the 0C to -10C range, would not be shocked if light freezing
drizzle was reported falling out of the post-cold-frontal stratus
layer.

Once any lingering flurries end on Wednesday, the forecast map is
surface high pressure, with a low stratus deck over the western
forecast zones gradually making a push north and east toward the end
of the day and on into Wednesday night. Wednesday night`s low
temperatures could be realized early Wednesday evening, before
increasing cloud cover and low level WAA (late) either steady
temperatures out or cause a non-diurnal temperature trend to
develop. Still seeing wind chill values Wednesday night bottoming
out between -20F and -30F.

Still seeing a positive PNA pattern in play during the out periods.
Although, by the end of the period, the western CONUS upper level
ridge appears to be flattening. The out periods are just littered
with short-lived periods of light precipitation potential.
Primarily, ensemble probabilities lean mainly snow P-type for these
systems. Although, the precipitation chances heading into Friday may
include a freezing p-type potential when low level WAA will be at a
premium. Low level thermal advection will be quite active during the
period, with the pendulum swinging back and forth from cold to warm
(on Thursday) and then cold again, briefly during the weekend, and
then possibly warm again heading into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 526 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR to MVFR ceilings remain across the terminals initially. Expect
low end MVFR to IFR ceilings at ATY from 06-12Z, with a scattered
layer at 800 feet already noted by 2250Z. While other locations
could temporarily move into the IFR category, the highest/most
persistent chance is at ATY. Expect VFR conditions to return to
all sites between 14-20Z Wednesday, with the lowest return at PIR.
Winds gusts of 20-25kts out of the north are expected from late
this evening through the overnight hours.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for SDZ018-
     019.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...06