823
FXUS63 KABR 052329 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
629 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 40-80 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms late
  tonight into Sunday morning, mainly throughout the Missouri
  River valley region. There is a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5)
  for severe thunderstorms late tonight capable of producing
  localized strong to severe thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of
  60 mph.

- There is a 20-40 percent chance for afternoon and evening
  thunderstorms on Monday, mainly across portions of central and
  northeast South Dakota and west central Minnesota. There is a
  marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms
  capable of producing localized large hail and strong wind
  gusts.

- The weather pattern stays active next week with additional
  thunderstorm chances by Thursday night into Friday.

- Seasonal temperatures are expected during the 7 day forecast,
  with the exception of Wednesday and Thursday, when high
  temperatures could bump back up into the mid to upper 90s
  throughout and west of the James River valley.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

The forecast remains on track this evening. No major changes are
planned.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

A slow moving cold front continues to sag every so slightly south
and east through our eastern and southern zones this morning. This
in conjunction with remnant mid level energy from a shortwave is
touching off scattered shower activity this afternoon across
northeast SD and west central MN. So far, this activity has been
tame with no embedded lightning strikes, but this can`t be ruled out
the remainder of the afternoon as these showers continue tracking
southeast. Otherwise, thick clouds across our eastern zones have
finally showed signs of breaking this afternoon and this should be
the trend going forward through the rest of the day.

Sfc high pressure will nose into the area this evening and with low
amplitude ridging traversing our area tonight will lead to a dry and
more comfortable evening. Where dew point temperatures have remained
in the 60s today(eastern zones), a drier airmass will be advected in
overnight. A clear to partly cloudy sky and cooler temperatures are
expected tonight. Quasi-zonal flow aloft will be maintained across
our region the next several days. WV imagery shows a shortwave
trough progressing through the Intermountain West and will continue
tracking east into the Northern Rockies/High Plains tonight.
Scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon are expected to
track into eastern MT/WY this evening and into western SD tonight.
Threats for severe weather from this storm complex continues to
remain much higher or more elevated across western SD and points
west versus our zones in central SD. Nevertheless, some of these
storms will try and work their way into our far western zones after
midnight tonight. Can`t rule out a strong to severe storm or two
making it as far east as our west river counties, but overall
coverage and sustainability of severe weather remains uncertain as
the storms will be encountering a more stable atmosphere in place
across central SD. If severe weather materializes or persists long
enough to make it into our area, damaging wind gusts and large hail
will be the primary threats. SPC has highlighted our far western
zones for a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather mainly
late tonight into early Sunday morning.

Whatever is left of this activity by daybreak appears it will
continue to be maintained through the morning and perhaps into
Sunday afternoon across south central SD per the latest iteration of
the HRRR and to a lesser extent a couple of other CAM solutions. The
atmosphere doesn`t appear it will be all that unstable during the
day Sunday across central SD. Guidance indicates southwest SD and
western NE will see MLCAPE values substantial enough for severe
storms. Deep layer shear of 35-50 kts will be present in our west
and southwest zones and more than adequate for storms. At this
point, outlooks for severe weather on Sunday and Sunday night are
confined to our southwest out of this CWA. Quasi-zonal flow aloft is
progged to persist across the region through the first half of next
week. After Sunday`s shortwave departs, another will be quickly on
it`s heels tracking across the US/Canadian border on Monday and
Monday night. A frontal boundary is anticipated to shift south and
east into the forecast area by Monday afternoon and Monday night.
Local MLCAPE values don`t look overly impressive per the NAM
settling in a range of 1000-2000 J/kg. Deep layer shear values will
be sufficient at 30-50 kts. Available CAMs show scattered convection
moving into our forecast area from the northwest around midday
through the evening Monday. SPC has highlighted portion of central
SD and all of northeast SD and west central MN for a Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 5) for severe weather.

That disturbance should kick out and depart by the start of Tuesday.
Upper ridging is then progged to slowly build into the Northern High
Plains and Northern Plains Tuesday through midweek. At this point,
the forecast indicates dry conditions those days, but if there are
any ridge rider disturbances embedded in the flow, wouldn`t be
surprised if that forecast detail changes. Models do agree on
another more pronounced upper wave will move through the region
later Thursday into Friday which will return better chances for
showers and storms into our area. After a cooler end to the holiday
weekend, temperature trends look like they`re be on the upswing
through the week. Temperatures are expected to soar back into the
90s once again and with higher humidity levels returning Tuesday and
Wednesday and perhaps even into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR cigs remain stubbornly persistent at KATY this evening but
are expected to become prevailing VFR after sunset. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the
period. Occasional reductions in visibility are possible overnight
with any thunderstorms that move into KMBG or KPIR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...20
DISCUSSION...Vipond
AVIATION...20