739
FXUS63 KABR 082344
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
644 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures near to below normal, in the 60s and 70s, are
  forecast Wednesday, and Saturday through Tuesday. Only on
  Thursday and Friday are temperatures expected to warm back up
  to above normal in the 80s to low 90s.

- There is a 40 to 65 percent chance of at least a quarter-inch
  of rainfall happening Sunday and Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 607 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Temperatures just starting to come down and dewpoints
recovering. Will allow the Red Flag to expire at the top of the
hour.

See below for an update to the aviation discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

At 12 PM CDT, skies are mostly sunny. Temperatures are warming
through the 70s and 80s. Northwest winds are increasing to 15 to 30
mph with gusts up to 35 to 45 mph, and relative humidity is falling
through the 20 to 40 percent range. Red Flag Warning conditions are
expected to begin within the next couple of hours across north
central South Dakota.

A Rex block upper level pattern is taking shape well off the west
coast, and is progged to persist for pretty much the entire 7-day
forecast period. Closer to home, this pattern is helping set the
stage for a considerably more laminar flow pattern over the northern
plains. It`s not going to be completely zonal aloft throughout the
period, but certainly more fast-moving/transient of features, both
upper lows and upper ridges.

High pressure is in place at the surface for the next several days,
interrupted at times, briefly by cold frontal passages. Friday`s
cold frontal passage may happen when enough Gulf moisture has
returned to the region to support thunderstorm development along the
boundary. Current timing places any thunderstorms over this CWA
close to the Minnesota/South Dakota border Friday afternoon/evening,
with storms moving quickly off into Minnesota. SPC is keeping a
close eye on this potential scenario (a 15% severe outlook coverage
area currently drawn over the far eastern forecast zones in the SPC
Day 4 Outlook). Otherwise, models appear to be zero`ing in on late
Saturday night through Monday night for the next chance for
precipitation. Models/ensembles heights differences and
precipitation clusters analyses indicate a couple of upper lows
could work through the region at that time. There is currently a 40
to 65 percent chance of at least 0.25 inches of precipitation (an
increase in probabilities from yesterday) over this CWA in the
ensembles output for Sunday into Monday.

The 7-day forecast has become dominated by near to below normal
temperature potential, with the flow pattern aloft more inclined to
be drawing cooler/drier air, with routine, into this region out of
Canada. Only Thursday and Friday appear to have the potential for
temperatures warmer than normal, when a transient upper level ridge
works across the northern plains.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 607 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions for all terminals with a northwest wind
component.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...07