565
FXUS63 KABR 301921
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
221 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and weak thunderstorms will continue through the weekend.
Severe weather is not expected with this system, though cold air
funnels are possible in the afternoon. Heavier rain or stationary
storms may also pose an isolated flooding threat.

- A cold front will move through on Tuesday, with a 20 to 40 percent
chance of rain. The remainder of the week is expected to stay dry.

- Below normal temperatures are expected for mid week. Highs will be
in the upper 50s to mid 60, 10 to 20 degrees below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

No big changes to the last few forecast discussions. An upper level
low continues to spin over central SD and churn up showers and
thunderstorms. This system will linger through Sunday. The colder
air aloft and weak daytime heating induced thunderstorms east of the
upper low may generate some cold air funnels this afternoon and
evening before the sun sets. Otherwise, no severe weather is
anticipated. Localized flooding is the only other concern with
prolonged rainfall over the same areas or short, intense bursts in
thunderstorms over more saturated soils.

If clouds scatter out a bit tonight or Sunday night, there may be a
little morning fog around, but confidence is too low to pinpoint an
area. Mentioned patchy/areas of fog based on forecast dewpoint
depressions for now.

Once this upper low meanders out of the region, a cold front swings
through Tuesday bringing additional chances for showers and weak
thunderstorms. It also ushers in fall-like temperatures for mid week
with overnight lows possibly dipping into the 30s Wednesday night
and daytime highs 10 to 20 degrees below climo norms for early
September. Some areas east of the James Valley may not climb out of
the 50s on Wednesday. Cooler temperatures continue for Thursday
under northwest flow aloft as a strong upper low digs into the Great
Lakes. Ridging over the Rockies may translate far enough east on
Friday to allow for a little waa.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A mix of VFR and MVFR cigs will abound through the next 24 hours,
with most of the MVFR cigs focused around central SD where the
bulk of the rain remeains. Any site may see vsby or cigs fall in
heavier showers or thunderstorms this afternoon and evening,
however.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20