824
FXUS63 KABR 182007
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
307 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold tonight, with low temperatures in the 20s. Temperatures
  will begin to rebound on Saturday, with warmer conditions
  into much of next week.

- A system Monday night and Tuesday gives us just a 50/50 chance
  or less of one tenth of an inch of rain, and at best a 30%
  chance for one quarter of an inch of rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

An upper level trough currently extends from Hudson Bay to southern
California, with shortwave energy continuing to track across the CWA
on southwest flow. The trough will not move much tonight, then gets
somewhat split as ridging builds from the southeastern part of the
country on Saturday and Saturday night.

At the surface, high pressure will settle in over the region
tonight, bringing light winds and clearing skies. Due the already
cool start to the night, will see temperatures fall below freezing
overnight. The high will gradually slide off to the east of the
region on Saturday, with the CWA then becoming situated between the
high to the east and low pressure over the Rockies. A somewhat
tightened pressure gradient will allow for southerly winds to
increase into the 10 to 20 mph range during the Saturday evening and
overnight, which will keep temperatures from dropping below
freezing. No precipitation is expected in the near term period.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s. High
temperatures on Saturday will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Lows
Saturday night will be in the mid to upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Opening Sunday, the longwave trough over the central CONUS
reorganizes with a briefly cut-off upper low over the Southern
Plains. That lifts northeast as a Colorado Low type system, however
the track of the surface low continues to be more of a Kansas City
to eastern Iowa and northeast trajectory, well east of what would
typically bring us moisture and as such we continue to see POPs over
the far northeastern parts of the state drop.

That shifts east and the next trough sets up to the west with a
negatively tilted trough lifting up across the area late
Monday/early Tuesday.  There will be a relatively high shear
environment but the GFS has just some elevated CAPE to the tune of
200j/kg. Less focused here on severe weather (none) as opposed to
clusters of showers lifting northeast across the CWA with hopefully
some rainfall. Unfortunately, NBM is only running about a 50/50
probability for 0.10" up along the ND/SD state line, dropping to
about 30% across the far east. The spreads in NBM POPs have
tightens up with better model consistency/clarity over the last
couple of runs.

Weak high pressure follows, but because of the upper trough to the
west and southwest flow aloft the next system influence begins as a
strong warm advection push in the mid-levels Tuesday night with the
next upper trough late in the forecast period, however by then model
divergence on timing/strength makes the forecast more uncertain.

As for temperatures, still no major anomalies, with near average
highs/lows for this time of year. High confidence too with a low
spread in the 25th/75th NBM percentiles, with it widening to at most
5 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit for the first half of the work week before
spreading with lower confidence for the latter half of the work
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail across the area through midday
Saturday. North winds gusting to around 30 knots will diminish to
become light and variable tonight through Saturday morning.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Parkin