025
FXUS63 KABR 161152
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
652 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of storms is expected tonight, with a Slight Risk
(level 2 of 5) for severe weather from central SD to the James
River. Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for the rest of the forecast
area.

- Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather across most of the
forecast area Sunday, and over central SD Monday. There is also a
slight risk for excessive rainfall over northeastern SD and
west central MN Sunday into Monday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Storms have developed earlier this evening on the interaction
between a stationary front and the lee of the Rockies surface
trough. As of 07z, storms are currently moving through central SD
and towards the east. There are some stronger wind gusts in the
storms, with measurements of up to 45 mph in our CWA and some gusts
50+ mph to the south. These stronger wind gust chances will continue
as the storms move east as well as a chance for some small up to
quarter sized hail.

Once the storms and showers have moved out of central and eastern SD
during the morning, there looks to be a period of rest as the
atmosphere start to gather more energy again. The models show the
lee of the Rockies surface trough and the frontal boundary
continuing to sit over SD. Ample moisture in the area as well as
CAPE values starting around 1500-2000+ J/kg this afternoon and
increasing into the evening will create a good environment for storm
develop along the boundary. Bulk shear with magnitudes of 30-40 kts
caused by the directional shear through the atmosphere will help
with storm organization. The main threats appear to be severe wind
gusts and large hail. There is also the threat for a tornado or two
in this evenings storms.

With the frontal boundary and surface trough forecast to continuing
sitting over SD though Sunday, the threat for shower and storm
development continues through Sunday night. The energy and shear
values do decrease during the day Sunday and increase again during
the afternoon and evening. Depending on where the boundary is
located, these storms could move over the same areas as recent
storms and today`s storms. This is leading to an increased risk for
flooding in these areas, with WPC excessive rainfall outlook
highlighting a slight risk over eastern SD on Sunday.

After Monday, the upper and mid levels of the atmosphere are
forecasting a high pressure to start developing over the America
Southwest. This high pressure will help to create a ridge that moves
over western areas of the state and potentially central SD. The
models also show some weaker areas of surface high pressure trying
to stay over central and northeastern SD into the end of the work
week. With the ridge developing to the southwest, dry air will try
to work its way into western SD with some models showing the drier
air potentially moving into parts of central SD as well.
Temperatures under this ridge will also rise, leading to higher
temperatures over central SD. Max temperatures could get into the
low to mid 90s through the mid and end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 651 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Strong storms have exited east of the TAF sites, with mainly VFR
conditions lingering. Another round of strong to severe storms is
expected tonight, with PROB30 included given the lower confidence
in specific timing and location.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...06