451
FXUS63 KABR 042345
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
645 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy conditions today and tonight will be east of a line from
Presho to Aberdeen, where winds out of the south will gust 30 to 40
mph. On Sunday the winds will be switching out of the northwest,
with gusts of 35 to 45 mph with locally higher gusts possible.

- There is a marginal risk, level 1 out of 5, for isolated severe
storms this evening and tonight along and west of a line from
Britton to Chamberlain. Damaging winds will be the main concern.
Heavy rain or hail will also be possible.

- There is a 50 to 75% chance of rain in excess of 1" along and west
of a line from Pollock to Eagle Butte tonight through Sunday morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

The nearest lightning strikes as of 2330Z are across NE. We will
continue to watch as precipitation is starting to develop across
portions of central SD. Winds just above the surface will be
brought down in any stronger shower or thunderstorm, with winds
remaining the main concern. We`ll also be monitoring the latest
wind gusts over the Sisseton Hills for gusts at or above 45 mph.
Last night Peever gusted to 52 mph and Summit to 42 mph. Similar
conditions are expected tonight, if not a bit stronger. The
strongest winds at 850mb will be from 03-09Z.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Showers continue across portions of north central SD this afternoon.
No lightning associated with them, as yet. The cold front that is
just ahead of these showers will continue to meander around north
central SD and northern SD into Sunday morning before it finally
dissipates/exits. This evening it will help to serve as a focal
point for some thunderstorm activity that will be enhanced by a
passing upper trough and a strengthening 40 to 50 kt llj east of the
sfc front. CAPE is limited behind the front, but shear increases to
around 55 kts. Strong winds appear to be the biggest threat late
this evening.

North central SD may see some heavy rain (up to 2 inches) just due
to residence time tonight. Areas east of the Missouri River may not
even see wetting rains unless a thunderstorm rolls overhead.

The llj tonight will keep sfc winds gusty from the James valley
east. A much cooler air mass moves in behind the front on Sunday.
While there`s a strong thermal gradient, the pressure gradient
slackens off by afternoon as do the winds. Tonight through Sunday
morning expect wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph, strongest along the
Coteau. Will need to keep an eye on wind gusts at the higher
elevation sites like Peever to make sure the Coteau isn`t tapping
into the 40 to 50 kts at 850 mb.

The colder air in the upper trough and behind the sfc cold front
will max out highs in the mid 50s in north central SD on Sunday.
Temps across the far east will fall through the day. Peeking ahead
into the work week, generally dry and seasonable conditions are
expected through mid week with high pressure dominating. At this
time, overnight lows are forecast to remain above the threshold for
frost. Southerly winds pick back up on Wednesday ahead of another
low pressure system slated to move through on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 645 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions start the period, but low level wind shear is
expected at ATY and ABR through most of the night with the
strongest winds just above the surface around 50kts while surface
winds gusts 25-35kts. There is a marginal risk of severe storms
over portions of central SD, including PIR/MBG. The main concern
with stronger showers or thunderstorms will be strong winds above
the 20-25kts expected through the night. MVFR ceilings to IFR
ceilings are expected by 07Z at both PIR and MBG, improving back
to VFR by 00Z Sunday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...06