686
FXUS63 KABR 141753
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1253 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 30-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms over mainly
north central to northeastern SD and western MN, with around a 30%
chance of rainfall in excess of 0.10, or a wetting rain, for areas
north and east of Aberdeen Monday afternoon through Monday evening.
No severe weather is expected at this time.

- Widespread precipitation chances of 70-90% move into mainly north
central to northeastern SD/west central MN Wednesday, along with
some weak thunderstorms. No severe weather is expected at this time.

- There is a 70% chance of winds out of the northwest gusting
greater than 45 mph Wednesday afternoon west of the Missouri River.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

We`re starting out this afternoon with high pressure stretching from
MT through eastern WY/far western SD through western NE/KS, with a
ridge extending through the Northern and Central Plains states. The
dominant sfc-500mb centered over Ontario/Hudson Bay has a trough
extending westward through central Canada. This west to east
oriented trough will sink across ND Monday morning and SD Monday
afternoon before shifting MN/IA Monday evening. This will help bring
a 30-60% chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms Monday
afternoon into Monday night. Winds will be out of the northwest
gusting into the 30 to near 40 mph Monday afternoon west of the
James River (strongest west of the MO River). A surface ridge will
move Tuesday morning with lingering rain showers exiting
northeastern SD/west central MN overnight.

On Wednesday, low pressure will be moving in from the northwest,
over eastern MT to the western Dakotas by 06Z Wednesday, western to
central ND/eastern half of SD, and over our eastern counties by 18-
21Z. While thunderstorms are possible, the timing of the low pressure
passage and plume of warmest air and highest instability remaining
to our south, should keep severe weather over our far southeastern
counties and more across IA/MO where there the SPC outlook
highlights a 15-20% severe weather probabilities. For our area
severe weather chances look to hold off until Friday into the
upcoming weekend. The highest chances of precipitation (70-90%
chance) and a wetting rain (0.10" or more) remain from north central
to northeastern SD/west central MN. Winds will be the main concern
for our forecast area. The potential for gusts over 45 mph continue
to increase, now 50% or greater west of the James River and over 70%
west of the MO River. The probabilities of 55 mph wind gusts are 45%
west of the MO River.

A broad area of high pressure will settle in through Friday morning
before another area of low pressure organizes across the Central
Plains late Friday into Sunday - with the highest chances for
widespread precipitation staying to our south.

Confidence is high that temperatures through Sunday will remain in
the 70s to low 80s. Normal high temperatures this time of year are
in the upper 70s to low 80s, so we will be only a few degrees below
normal through the period. At this point Thursday look to be the
coolest day, with highs in the low to mid 70s (with a few upper 60s
over the Prairie Coteau).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue over the next 24 hours.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...06