196
FXUS63 KABR 031934
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
234 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 80 to nearly 100 percent chance of rain and snow
  from late tonight through Friday evening. Snow accumulations
  look to be around two inches or less. Total moisture generally
  around a half inch or less.

- Temperature will remain 5 to 15 degrees below normal for early
  April through early next week before a warming trend begins
  toward the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Quite a bit of sunshine across the CWA this afternoon, eating away
at the snow pack which covers most of the area east of the Missouri
River. Surface high pressure is in place over the region as well,
with rather light winds on area obs. Mid/high clouds will be in the
increase tonight from the south in response to the approaching
system for Friday. Therefore, low temperatures are a bit tricky to
forecast tonight as we have to balance the effects of increasing
clouds against the remaining snow pack across the region.

The aforementioned storm system will spread rain/snow into the
region by Friday morning. Surface trough pokes northward into the
region during the morning, while the mid-level trough advances
eastward into/through the Dakotas during the day. Models still
showing a mix of rain and snow overspreading the CWA by Friday
morning and progressing eastward into the afternoon. Soundings don`t
really support freezing rain, so mainly looking at a rain/snow
situation based on surface temps and temps in the lower levels of
the atmosphere. Any snow accumulations look to be on the lighter
side and forecast to be mainly around 2 inches or less. Will have a
hard time accumulating on road surfaces given this will be during
the day with temps in the 30s under the early April solar energy.
WPC Super Ensemble Plumes show generally a trace to 2 inches across
the CWA, but there are some outliers closer to 4 or 5 inches.

That system quickly moves out of the region by Friday evening as
surface high pressure then looks to build into the Dakotas. Winds
look to go rather light, while HREF ensemble mean cloud cover
suggests mostly clear skies. Setting the stage for rather chilly
temperatures Friday night, especially over areas with a lingering
couple/few inches of snow pack. NBM lows (teens) were generally
accepted for Friday night, but there may be some surprises (colder
lows) over areas of deeper snow cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Below normal temperatures will remain in place through the first
half of the long term forecast, as the area remains under
northwesterly flow aloft on the west side of an upper trough that
will be moving through the Great Lakes this weekend. Does look like
we`ll get another reinforcing shot of cold air on Sunday into Sunday
night as a shortwave drops southeast through the flow and supports a
cold front sliding through. That will be the last surge of cold air
for a while (Monday highs in 30s-40s), as ensemble clusters fairly
consistent in an upper ridge sliding east across the area for the
middle of next week (some minor differences in the amplitude of the
ridge). That will start the warming trend towards above normal
temperatures (temps into the 60s and 70s), which will continue
through the rest of the next work week and potentially into next
weekend as another ridge builds over the western CONUS Friday. Only
potential for precipitation/rain (20% chance) in the long term comes
on Wednesday, as a shortwave rounds the upper ridge to the west.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Patches of MVFR CIGs across the region will continue to affect
KATY at the start of the TAF period, and to a lesser extent in
KMBG. Aside from that, VFR conditions will largely prevail
today/tonight before MVFR/IFR CIGs move in once again towards the
end of the TAF period as the next weather system moves in. RA and
SN will also move into the region with periods of MVFR/IFR VSBY
forecast across the TAF sites.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...TMT