357
FXUS63 KABR 292319 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
619 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Surface smoke from wildfires is expected across portions of the
  region Wednesday and Thursday, with adverse effects possible in
  those sensitive to smoke.

- Highs through Saturday will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal for
  this time of year.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 617 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Guidance is struggling with pops this evening. Have already
adjusted hourly pops based on current MCS rolling through, but
will likely need further changes as the evening progresses.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Starting to see showers and thunderstorms developing across
southwest/south central SD as next mid-level piece of energy begins
affecting the Northern Plains. MLCAPE values are generally less than
1000 J/KG currently across the southwest CWA, and forecast to stay
pretty much near or below 1500 J/KG into the evening hours. Other
severe parameters are somewhat limited, including bulk shear less
than 30 knots. The 18Z HRRR, along with the 12Z HREF reflectivity
ensemble paintball all suggest best precip chances this
evening/overnight lie across central/south central SD eastward into
southeast/east central SD, possibly along the FSD/ABR CWA line.
Constructed PoPs this way through the overnight hours, with the
northeast CWA likely seeing mostly dry conditions. There are some
signals for heavy rain potential to keep an eye on, mainly over the
southwest CWA, with some training features showing up on various
CAMs. Higher-end QPF solutions indicate as much as 2 inches possible
along the I-90 corridor into this evening/overnight.

Just enough lingering instability present on Wednesday to perhaps
allow for at least isolated coverage of showers/storms, which some
CAMs are suggesting. PoPs at this time have lowering precip chances
through the day and into the nighttime hours Wednesday night with
more of an influence of the glancing surface high moving towards the
Great Lakes.

Thursday and Friday still show below normal temps in the 70s, with
lower dewpoints in the 50s to around 60 degrees. Precip chances
appear limited during this time as well, as we`ll await the weekend
before more heat and humidity and resulting instability try to move
back into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 617 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...20
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...20