572
FXUS63 KABR 140528
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1228 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unsettled weather is back, with threats for strong to severe
  storms into at least Friday.

- Hot and humid Thursday with highs/heat index values near 100 in
  central South Dakota. Those sensitive to high heat may want to
  take precautions.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 624 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Aviation discussion has been updated in accordance with the 00Z
TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Wave of energy evident on water vapor continues moving eastward
across the region, generating showers and thunderstorms in rather
large coverage. Have updated PoPs several times throughout the day
to keep up with current trends that models seem to have a tough time
latching on to. Will then be watching the next wave moving into the
region by this evening, which is shown also on water vapor imagery
moving eastward across MT/WY. This second wave is likely to bring
increasing shower and thunderstorm activity to western/central SD
late afternoon into the evening hours. Further east across northeast
SD, the development of a low-level jet overnight should aid in
additional convection across the region. Best chance for organized
severe storms still looks to be across the southwest CWA by evening
from whatever develops across western SD and begins to move east-
southeast towards central/south central SD. For the low-level jet
induced convection overnight, MUCAPE values around 1000 J/KG should
lead to a marginally severe threat.

Cold front moves across the region late in the day on Thursday, with
additional chances for thunderstorms. Timing is a bit tricky as
there looks to be a departing mid-level wave earlier in the day,
with subsidence likely in its wake for much of the day. Strong
daytime heating and increased instability should lead to at least
isolated coverage of storms across portions of the CWA by early
evening.

As for temperatures, hot conditions are expected on Thursday, with
widespread 80s and 90s. Central SD will be flirting with 100
degrees. Dewpoints look to be rising into the 60s to around 70
degrees, so heat indices will be something to follow. Latest
apparent T grids show heat index values around 100 degrees over
portions of the southwest CWA. Still a bit too marginal to go with
any type of a heat headlines, but something to monitor for the
overnight forecast package.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR for KPIR/KMBG with a very low probability for seeing storms
through the TAF period. There is activity near the KABR terminal,
but just to the east and headed north so likelihood of storms
impacting that terminal is generally low but not completely
discountable. For KATY, showers and storms is ongoing and will
continue through the next several hours. KATY is also experiencing
LLWS through the morning.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BC
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...07