059
FXUS63 KABR 211917
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
117 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warming trend will continue with temperatures above normal
  (10 to 25 degrees above normal) Saturday through the middle of
  next week.

- Increasing confidence for elevated fire weather concerns Monday
  west of the James River.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 112 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

At 1 PM CST, under a sunny sky and winds from the south to west,
temperatures, for the most part, are warming through the 20s and
30s, a good 15 to 20 degrees warmer than this time yesterday. A few
spots across the very far northern tier portion of the CWA where
there are still several inches of snow on the ground, temperatures
are warming up through the teens right now. A warm front is analyzed
over the CWA, extending north-south over the region, from the
Nebraska panhandle up through the Missouri River valley and on up to
a surface low over Saskatchewan.

More northwest flow during the forecast period, with little to no
chance for precipitation expected. The one upper wave forecast to
move over the region will draw a surface low down through eastern
North Dakota, pulling a surface cold front down to the northeast
corner doorstep of the CWA on Saturday.

The warm frontal boundary over the CWA is going to continue to push
east overnight, clearing the CWA before sunrise Saturday morning.
Behind this frontal passage, winds are going to maintain a westerly
direction, a good mixing/warming direction. Low level WAA will be at
a premium during the timeframe of tonight through Saturday night,
with low level (925hpa) temperatures steadily warming through the
period. Low temperatures tonight are expected to drop into the upper
single digits to upper teens and into the upper teens to upper 20s
Saturday night. High temperatures on Saturday are expected to take
another 15 to 20 (or higher?) degree jump from today`s highs, with
mixing, heating and WAA making highs in the 40s and 50s easy to
attain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 112 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Sunday starts the long term period with the downwind side of an
upper level trough over our area putting us in northwesterly flow.
Monday, the EC, Canadian, and GFS deterministic models are starting
to show a shortwave quickly make its way northwest to southeast
across the Dakotas. The EC is a little offset from the other two
timing wise. It has the wave enter SD Monday afternoon while the GFS
and Canadian show it entering SD mid afternoon or evening. The EC
also has a much more pronounced ridge move into the region Tuesday.
Wednesday, another upper level disturbance enters the region. Models
vary greatly on this right now both on timing and location. Down at
the surface it looks like a low moves through Tuesday evening into
Wednesday. Thursday our upper level winds are almost straight
northerly as a strong high forms over the southwest.

With that shortwave on Monday, we have some 20-30% PoPs move across
northeastern SD. This is expected to remain liquid at this time.
Total rainfall up to a few tenths. Our next chance for precip
will be Tuesday evening into Wednesday with that low, also
expected to remain mostly liquid, although higher elevation areas
could get some snow mixing in. Widespread 25-40% PoPs start
Tuesday evening and last through the overnight hours into early
Wednesday morning before tapering off during the later morning and
early afternoon. There`s not a whole lot of QPF currently
forecast for this system and what little there is is mainly
concentrated over far eastern SD and west central MN.

NBM winds for Monday still aren`t quite as high as they could be,
but with WAA mixing might not be as efficient as it could be either.
Still stronger wind gusts over central SD will increase fire weather
concerns after a weekend of warm, snow melting temperatures. The NBM
is showing the probability of both wind gusts above 25 mph and
afternoon min RH values of less than or equal to 20% as at least 70%
around and west of the James River valley Monday afternoon.

As for temps and winds, temperatures will be 15-25 degrees above
average for at least Sunday through Tuesday. Wednesday, with that
low, will be a bit cooler, around 10 degrees above average, and that
will continue through the end of the period. Winds will be around
normal, except for the above mentioned Monday, and also Friday.
There are some signals starting to show for another system to move
through the area Friday bringing some strong winds (20-30 mph gusts)
to the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1108 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast across the area this afternoon through
Saturday morning.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dorn
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...Dorn