122
FXUS63 KABR 070151 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
851 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will bring a 40 to 70% chance of thunderstorms
  Saturday afternoon/evening, highest east of the Missouri River.
  There is a marginal risk (1/5) for severe weather north of Hwy
  14.

- Gusty northwest winds of 35-45 mph possible Sunday with cooler
  temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s.

- Warming trend by the middle of next week, with widespread 80s for
  high temperatures by Wednesday. Although, 90s not out of the
  question.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 847 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Still have one remaining shower south of Webster, but aside from
that, all other shower activity has dissipated. PoPs feature
dwindling chances to less than 20 percent over the next hour or
two. We should be losing shower activity as the sun sets.
Otherwise, looking at lows in the 40s and low 50s across the
region tonight with light winds. Cannot rule out some patchy fog
in the James/Big Sioux valleys as skies look to go mostly clear as
well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Portions of the forecast area have seen scattered showers and
isolated thundershowers this afternoon, mainly along and east of the
James Valley. Some of this activity will persist into the evening
before diminishing. A partly to mostly cloudy sky is likely to
continue tonight into early Saturday and there may be some patchy
fog developing toward daybreak across parts of the Big Sioux and
James Valleys. Not too confident in this occurring, but if it
materializes it appears it will be more brief and isolated in
coverage.

Attention then turns to an approaching cold front on Saturday
afternoon into Saturday evening. Sfc high pressure drifts east of
our area while sfc low pressure and a trailing cold front shift east
and southeast out of southern Canada into North Dakota during the
day. This will promote a south to southwest flow across our area
with a bit of a tightening gradient leading to breezy winds. Warm
advection processes will help to boost 850mb temps into a +13C to
+19C range giving way to daytime highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s.
Low level moisture will be modest with dew point temperatures in the
50s. A deepening upper trough across Saskatchewan and Manitoba will
push a cold front southeast across our forecast area by late
afternoon through mid-late evening. A scattered to broken line of
showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop along and just
behind this boundary and propagate east to southeast, mainly from
north central sections of SD eastward into the northeast part of the
state into west central MN. Severe weather parameters are modestly
favorable but not overly impressive that would lend one to expect
widespread robust convection. A narrow ribbon of MLCAPE values of
1000-1500 J/kg will orient along and just behind the cold front
mainly from north central SD into northeast SD by late Saturday
afternoon and evening. Deep layer shear is on the more impressive
side generally ranging from 30-50 kts across those aforementioned
favorable areas. SPC continues to highlight parts of our forecast
area, mainly along and north of U.S. Hwy 14 with a marginal risk
(1/5) for severe weather. The main threats will be localized strong
wind gusts in excess of 60 mph from any of the strongest higher
based convective cells that develop.

That activity will diminish and move east and out of our area by
late Saturday night leading to a more drier, cooler and more windy
latter half of the weekend. A deep sfc low pressure system and
associated upper level low will park itself across far southern
Canada and northern MN on Sunday as sfc high pressure nudges
southeast across the Northern High Plains. A tight sfc gradient will
lead to strong northwest wind gusts between 35-45 mph. 850mb temps
drop to +5C to +10C leading to cooler highs in the upper 60s to low
70s. A lobe of mid level energy rotating around that upper low to
our northeast may lead to a few scattered showers and storms late
Sunday into early Monday across our northeast zones. Upper ridging
then develops across the Dakotas Tuesday through Wednesday leading
to a more significant warm up. The dry conditions may break by the
latter half of the work week as a series of disturbances track
northeast from the Rockies into the Northern Plains on southwest
flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are currently forecast to persist through the TAF
period. Although, patchy FG/BR is not out of the question
overnight in the James/Big Sioux river valleys, which may affect
KABR/KATY. Confidence is too low at this time, but will continue
to monitor and evaluate once again for the 06Z TAFs.

By the end of the TAF period, a cold front will be making its way
into the region, switching south-southwest surface winds to the
northwest. Widely scattered SHRA/TSRA expected along the front,
possibly affecting KMBG/KABR towards the tail end of the period.
Potential exists for +TSRA with surface wind gusts over 50 knots.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...Vipond
AVIATION...TMT