095
FXUS63 KABR 070505
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1205 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Locally patchy frost is a possibility Tuesday morning mainly for
north central South Dakota.

- Southerly winds increase on Wednesday with gusts of 30 to 40 mph.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 810 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

No changes planned to the tonight period forecast. It`s going to
get cold tonight (patchy frost perhaps mainly west of the James
River valley). No doubt, there will be places that drop below 40
degrees, again, tonight. But, guidance (ensemble or otherwise)
continues to suggest that, for the most part, temperatures should
stay at or above 36F degrees. Partial cloud cover and a west-
southwesterly component wind should also help keep temperatures
from free-fall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

There are still a few residual sprinkles/light showers west of the
James Valley this afternoon, associated with shortwave energy in the
upper trough. Some of this isolated activity on radar may be no more
than virga as sfc high pressure has settled over SD. Mid levels dry
out more by 21z cutting off the shower moisture.

The upper trough and sfc high are keeping temperatures seasonable.
Confidence is low in overnight lows, though, as NBM has a high bias.
As the sfc high slides farther southeast tonight, westerly winds may
be just high enough to prevent strong radiational cooling. It looks
like high clouds will persist into the evening, as well, sliding
south with the shortwave. Can`t rule out some patchy frost in north
central SD, but even 25th percentile guidance isn`t leaning that
low. Lowered temps a couple of degrees below guidance for now.

Drier mid level air moves in Tuesday night, but so does some waa as
an upper ridge begins to transition into the Plains. Southerly winds
increase ahead of a Rocky Mountains low on Wednesday. The low/trough
moves into the Dakotas on Thursday as a dry front. Temperatures
climb above normal again starting on Wednesday and continuing
through the weekend. Next chance for any showers appears to hold off
until Sunday, though there are some timing differences in the
models.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR (mid to high-level) clouds should persist into the morning hours
across northern South Dakota and southern North Dakota.
Light/variable winds with a southwest component will persist as
well.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...07