885
FXUS63 KABR 102341
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
641 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal high temperatures in the low 80s to low 90s Friday. A
sharp cooldown expected Saturday through early next week with highs
in the 60s to low 70s.

- High to very high grassland fire danger expected Friday with
highest concern west river.

-There is a slight (level 2 out of 5) to marginal (level 1 out of 5)
risk for severe storms late Friday afternoon into the evening over
portions of northeastern SD and west central MN. The primary hazards
will be wind gusts of 60-75 mph and hail up to 2 inches in diameter.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Dry southwest flow continues across the region today under somewhat
flattened ridging aloft. Low pressure moves in tonight and slowly
advances eastward through Friday. Behind this low, caa takes hold.
Ahead of the low, breezy conditions will continue to draw up warmer
air especially on the downslope areas of the Coteau. Most models
still show best moisture convergence in MN by 21z Friday. In spite
of SPC`s slight risk that stretches back across the Coteau, none of
the hi-res are overly impressed with storm chances in SD. However,
if something does form in the mildly capped (+11C), dry environment,
strong winds would be a threat.

The other concern with this low and cold front will be those 30 to
40 mph wind gusts over dry fuels in central SD. Min RH south of
Pierre is forecast to fall to 20 to 25 percent. While not strictly
red flag criteria, the strength of the winds could necessitate a
headline. Very high grassland fire danger is expected, either way.

On Saturday, high pressure briefly builds in with H85 temps falling
to around +10C to +12C. Temperatures will be markedly cooler, even a
few degrees below seasonal averages, with highs in the upper 60 to
lower 70s. The cooler, more fall-like temps will persist through
early next week.

Sunday into Monday, low pressure moves off the Rockies into the
Plains. Shortwave energy will eject out over the northern plains
ahead of an upper low in Montana. All of this will result in some
widespread rainfall. Given this is expected to fall rather slowly
and some models have backed off on overall QPF amounts, the precip
should be welcome.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 639 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions for all terminals. Winds from the south southwest
shift to northerly with a frontal passage tomorrow. In the
interim, KATY will see some LLWS during the late overnight and
early morning hours.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...07