581
FXUS63 KABR 120141 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
841 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain tonight into mainly Sunday morning. Probability of
  rainfall of a half of an inch or more ranges from 40 to 50
  percent for this area, highest along and east of the Sisseton
  Hills.

- Winds gusting 30 to 40 mph will remain into Sunday. The
  strongest winds are expected over the Prairie Coteau tonight,
  and over north central SD Sunday afternoon.

- Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 30s on Monday morning
  east of the James River. This may lead to frost formation over
  north central South Dakota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 836 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Rain continues to spread northeast across the CWA, with much of
central SD seeing a steady light to moderate rainfall currently. A
few lightning flashes/strikes noted from time to time as well.
Made some adjustments to PoPs over the next several hours based on
radar trends. Latest guidance still suggests most precip will be
along or east of I-29 by 12Z Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Light showers continue east of a line from Kennebec through Miller
and Aberdeen at 20Z. A few of the steadier or more intense showers
have been able to produce a radar estimated 0.1 to 0.25" of rain
(mainly over easter Lyman to southern Hand Counties, and
southeastern Day County. Elsewhere, accumulations remain limited. An
SPC general thunderstorm risk area remains over our entire area
today, and for far eastern SD and west central MN Sunday. This still
looks reasonable. The mention of thunderstorms will return to the
forecast this evening mainly east of a line from Jones to Brown
Counties.

Looking at some of the CAMS, the next round of showers over western
SD will be slightly faster and the forecast reflects that change.
Still, we`ll have 3-4 hours of dry weather in between the first and
second round of showers. The main area of showers looks to be from
Jones through McPherson/Edmunds counties this evening, with around
0.25" of rain before shifting to eastern SD and west central MN
overnight. Additional rain during the daylight hours Sunday should
be around 0.10" or less over far eastern SD/west central MN (highest
east). Even the forecast for today still had a wide range of
possibilities precipitation wise, so confidence remains low -
particularly over far northeastern SD into west central MN where the
25th percentile was around 0.25" and the 75th percentile was still
over 1".

Strong winds out of the south gusting 30 to 40 mph will only relax
slightly overnight, while remaining strong over the higher terrain
of eastern South Dakota. We`ll need to monitor the latest trends on
the slopes of the Prairie Coteau wind wise for the potential of
gusts at or above 45 mph from around 08-16Z Sunday with winds of 50-
60kts near and just above 900mb. While the NBM has the highest winds
over the western slopes, several other solutions are focused over
the east. It`s a tricky forecast with this specific southerly wind
direction as a small change in the direction will make a large
difference.

The area of low pressure over western North Dakota Sunday morning
will wrap up over south central Canada Sunday afternoon and evening.
The north to south oriented cold front near the Missouri River at
14Z Sunday will move push to near Aberdeen and Redfield around 17Z,
and into Minnesota between 21-22Z. Temperatures ahead of the front
will rise to the highest values over the next 7 days, into the mid
60s to upper 70s. Behind the front, winds will quickly switch from
out of the south to out of the west and remain strong thanks to the
tightening pressure gradient and cold air advection. West winds will
gust 40 to 50 mph for locations west of Mobridge Sunday afternoon.

Otherwise, with the colder air sliding in frost will become an
increasing concern, first of Monday morning over portions of central
SD as temperatures fall into the low 30s. Winds are still expected
to be 5-10kts Monday morning, and the main surface low will still be
in southwestern Canada with only a trough extending across
northwestern to central SD, so it`s not an exactly perfect setup for
frost/freeze. Still, the cold temperatures are expected.

The Canadian high will move across southern Manitoba/northern ND
Tuesday, with a ridge remaining over our forecast area. Our next 30%
chance of rain arrives Tuesday, with a higher chance (50%) Thursday
into Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

This evening, -SHRA/SHRA will move northeast across the region,
potentially reaching MVFR VSBY at times. Pockets of MVFR CIGs are
forecast across the area this evening/overnight as well. A cold
front will move east across the region on Sunday, switching winds
around to the west-northwest and gusting to around 30-35 knots or
higher.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Sunday for SDZ003-015.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...TMT