924
FXUS63 KABR 022309 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
609 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-There is a Slight (level 2 of 5) to a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk
for severe storms to develop over northeastern SD and west central
MN late Thursday afternoon into the nighttime. The primary threats
will be hail up to 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts of 60 to 75
miles per hour.

- Warming trend continues through the week, peaking at 10 to 20
degrees above normal Friday and Saturday. Widespread highs in the
low to mid 90s are expected those days.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 608 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

May need to make a few tweaks to hourly pops this evening as
showers develop. However, overall the forecast remains on track
with no major changes anticipated.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

After this morning`s showers, conditions remain fairly calm over the
forecast area this afternoon. The main item of note for the
remainder of the day today are strong winds gusting up to roughly 25
miles per hour, mainly along and west of the Missouri River.
Despite the winds, humidity will remain high enough to keep
Grassland Fire Danger at the Moderate category or lower for the
remainder of the afternoon.

Main forecast focus today is the severe threat tomorrow evening
north of a warm front moving into the area. Storms are expected to
develop mainly over North Dakota in the late afternoon to early
evening time frame, with the possibility of some development across
the border into northern South Dakota. One of the main potential
limiting factors for storms developing this far south will be a
minor capping inversion showing up in some model soundings (likely a
result of the frontal boundary to the south). 850mb temperatures are
set to reach 22-25 Celsius over northeastern South Dakota and
western Minnesota, with an inversion underneath. At this point in
the forecast cycle, hi-res guidance is fairly split on whether or
not storms will be able to develop or not. Should storms develop in
that area, ample MUCAPE upwards of 2000 J/kg will be present along
with shear of roughly 40 knots and strong mid-level lapse rates of 7-
8 C/km all working to sustain a hail threat. Wind will also be a
potential threat. Widespread DCAPE > 1000 J/kg will be present, and
there are also hints of a linear storm mode in some of the models
that do resolve convection this far south, which would also aid in
the potential wind threat. At this point confidence in the severe
threat is still somewhat low due to the lack of model consistency,
but the necessary ingredients will certainly be in place.

Through at least the weekend, the broad upper-level setup of a
trough to the west and a ridge over the central CONUS is expected to
hold, with the ridge deepening over the next couple of days. As a
result of the subsequent height rises over the region, above normal
temperatures (highs in the 90s through Saturday) will take hold.
This setup will also place the Northern Plains in a position such
that the trough will be able to eject jet streaks and shortwaves
into the region during the weekend and beyond. The divergence aloft
over the area will support the next chances for showers and storms,
over an isolated area on Saturday and becoming more widespread on
Sunday. Mid-range guidance does highlight the potential for a severe
threat, with probabilities at this point lining up with a Marginal
Risk Outlook. Additional chances for showers and storms come Monday
into Tuesday as the upper-level low driving the trough is set to
progress to the northeast and brings stronger divergence aloft over
the Northern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 608 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...20
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...20