667
FXUS63 KABR 151706 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1206 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A dangerous and prolonged heat wave will persist through the end
  of the week with temperatures and heat index values topping out
  in the 90s to low 100s each afternoon.

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect for north central, central, and
  portions of northeastern SD and west central MN through Thursday
  evening.

- Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across West
  River zones this afternoon as gusty winds of 25-30 mph develop
  and minimum relative humidity values fall to between 20-25
  percent.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Aviation discussion below has been updated in accordance with
the 18Z TAF issuance.

UPDATE Issued at 942 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

No changes this morning as the forecast remains on track. Heat
remains the main concern today, with highs as warm as the upper 90s
expected, with north central South Dakota expected to be the hottest
area today. A Heat Advisory remains in place through Thursday for
all counties except Clark, Codington, Hamlin, and Deuel due to the
prolonged heat. Also of concern today will be marginal fire weather
concerns over north central South Dakota, particularly west of the
Missouri River. Afternoon humidity will drop to between 20-25
percent over that area, with strong gusts up to 30 miles per hour
out of the southeast combining with the humidity to create the area
of potential concern.

UPDATE Issued at 606 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Updated discussion for the 12Z TAFs below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

A persistent upper ridge will continue to hold sway over our hot and
dry weather pattern for the next few days. Mid level heights won`t
change much through the end of the work week keeping the main storm
track west, north and east of our region. Temperatures, humidity
values and resultant heat indices will remain pretty much where
they`ve been this week with temperatures in the 90s to low 100s.
Therefore, the heat advisory headline will remain in place through
Thursday evening. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible this
afternoon across portions of our West River zones mainly due to
gusty southerly winds. Based on current temperature and dew point
temperature projections, we will fall short of RH criteria for a Red
Flag Warning. Nevertheless, High Grassland Fire Danger will still
exist across Corson and Dewey Counties today.

Short term guidance shows hints of a weak s/w mid level trough
crashing over the top of the ridge across ND by late Thursday into
Friday. A sfc low and frontal boundary associated with this feature
is progged to track southeast through the forecast area on Friday.
This will act as a wind shift line taking away our persistent
southerly low level flow and return a northerly component to that
flow. Any moisture associated with these features are expected to
remain north of this CWA in parts of ND where the better forcing is
expected to line up. Sfc high pressure builds southeast across the
eastern Dakotas into MN on Friday into Saturday. Any mid level
height decreases that take place Friday will be increasing again by
Sunday as s/w ridging builds back into the area. This will help
boost temps back up into triple digit territory across central SD to
round out the weekend. Looking into next week, a stronger mid level
s/w trough is expected to suppress the upper ridge to our south and
west Sunday into Monday. An associated sfc frontal boundary is
progged to slide through the forecast area by late Sunday into
Monday which may provide parts of our area with the next chance of
precipitation. NBM remains conservative with 20 PoPs Sunday into
Sunday night with very limited if no QPF. Temperatures are expected
to return back closer to normal during the early portion of next
week as northwesterly flow aloft returns.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through the rest of today and
through Thursday morning. Other than a few high clouds passing
overhead and some fair weather cumulus this afternoon over parts of
eastern South Dakota, skies should remain clear through the TAF
period. Wind will remain out of the south to southeast through the
TAF period as well. These winds may gust as high as 20 to 30 knots,
with the strongest located over north central South Dakota this
afternoon. Gusts around 20-25 knots may linger overnight tonight and
through Thursday morning.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ Thursday for
     SDZ003>011-015>018-021-033>037-045-048-051.
MN...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT Thursday for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BC
DISCUSSION...Vipond
AVIATION...BC