712
FXUS63 KABR 171451 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
951 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid again today, even with a frontal boundary
  shifting south winds to northerly. Heat index values today in
  the mid to upper 90s, possibly 100F. A Heat Advisory is in
  effect for portions of central and northeast SD from 1 to 9 PM
  CDT

- Storm chances (20-40%) for Sunday with a wave that signals a
  change in the pattern to closer to normal temperatures next
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Forecast remains on track this morning, and no changes have been
made at this time. Main concern today continues to be the heat, and
a Heat Advisory is in effect from 12 PM CDT / 11 AM MDT `through 9
PM CDT / 8 PM MDT today for all counties except for Corson,
Campbell, and McPherson. For areas under the Advisory, apparent
temperatures will be in the upper 90s, potentially reaching 100
degrees at times.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 106 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, temperatures around the area are in the mid to
upper 70s with winds out of the southeast around 10 mph.
Temperatures today are expected to rise once again into the 90s
with heat index values in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees.
The NBM has been a little overdone the last few days so dropped
highs just a little over northern SD and east of the James
Valley. A Heat Advisory has been issued for portions of central
and northeast SD from 1 to 9 PM CDT.

A low and corresponding cold front will make its way across the area
this afternoon bringing northerly winds to the area a slight cool
down Saturday. Heat is expected to return Sunday and Monday.
Following this, temperatures should moderate for the rest of the
work week. A warm front will move across the area Sunday bringing a
chance showers and thunderstorms. There is a 20-30% chance across
north central SD during the morning hours and then across central
and northeast SD during the evening to early overnight hours. No
severe weather is expected at this time. The HRRR Smoke model is
showing a plume of elevated smoke heading south out of Canada and
into our area by mid afternoon. No surface smoke is expected at this
time. The only impact looks to be a slight milky look to the sky.
With this prolonged period of dry and warm weather, fuels have been
drying out. Winds for the next few days don`t look to be overly
strong, gusts up to 25 mph, so fire concerns are low. However,
Monday, with the Sunday low still over some of our east central
counties, we are expecting some higher wind gusts which will
elevated fire concerns, depending on how much precipitation, if any,
we get with the possible storms Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 609 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through tonight.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 9 PM
     CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ006>011-015>023-
     033>037-045-048-051.
MN...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BC
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...20