717
FXUS63 KABR 072358 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
658 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms late this
  afternoon/evening, highest chances east of the Missouri River.
  There is a marginal risk (1/5) for severe weather north of Hwy
  212 and east of the Missouri.

- Gusty northwest winds of 35-45 mph possible Sunday with cooler
  temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s.

- Warming temperatures on the way by next Tuesday with widespread
  80s for daytime temperatures but slightly cooler conditions
  and increasing precipitation chances will be possible the
  latter half of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 639 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Aviation discussion updated below for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Focus in the short term will be on thunderstorm chances and
associated severe weather threats into this evening followed by
stronger winds and cooler temperatures on the way for the second
half of the weekend. A deepening shortwave trough axis is currently
working southeastward out of Canada into the western Dakotas early
this afternoon with a sfc cold front out ahead of this feature about
to move through the central Dakotas. Scattered showers and storms
are already underway across parts of ND southward into north central
SD. Instability remains meager but it has been pooling near and
behind the sfc front and has been up to about 500 J/kg as of this
writing. Deep layer shear across central and western sections of the
Dakotas isn`t overly impressive yet sitting around 30 kts.

Model progs indicate instability will continue to increase a bit
more up to 1000 J/kg and run parallel and behind the sfc front as it
shifts into northeast SD and west central MN later this afternoon
into this evening. Shear values are expected to bump up a bit more
into a 35-45 kt range during this time frame. CAM`s continue to show
a broken line of post frontal convection shifting east to southeast
across basically the northern half of our CWA. Model consensus times
this out with north central areas of SD seeing the storms between
now and about 23Z before they begin to approach and move through the
James Valley closer to 23Z and persist there until around 01Z before
shifting into our eastern zones between 01-03Z tonight. The main
threats from the more robust convection will be strong wind gusts up
to and in excess of 60 mph. DCAPE values currently are ranging from
800-900 J/kg across parts of the James Valley and points east into
western MN. These are anticipated to possibly approach 1000 J/kg by
late this afternoon and mainly be focused along and out ahead of the
sfc cold front. Hail doesn`t appear to be that big of a threat
overall, but still can`t rule out few marginally severe hail reports
initially before this threat diminishes with time.

All this activity should be clear and shift east of the forecast
area by late evening tonight. West to northwest breezes will kick in
behind the fropa and begin to deliver some cooler air into the
region. A tightening gradient on Sunday will lead to gusty northwest
winds between 30-45 mph. Some locales across north central SD could
approach advisory level winds Sunday afternoon and this will be
something to monitor going forward. The upper level low responsible
for this change in the pattern is expected to sink south and
eastward into northern MN the latter half of Sunday into Monday
leading to showers and a few thunderstorms possible across our
northeast zones by late afternoon into early Monday. An upper ridge
is progged to begin building over the Northern Plains by Tue/Wed
which give our forecast area a boost in temperatures back into the
80s by Tuesday and perhaps beyond. However, quasi-zonal flow returns
midweek with a couple of shortwave disturbances progged to move
through the region which will give us an increasing opportunity for
showers and storms through the latter half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 639 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Line of -SHRA/SHRA and -TSRA/TSRA continues to move eastward
across the region, but has cleared KABR/KMBG/KPIR as of 00Z. KATY
should see this line of precipitation and gusty winds between
01-02Z, when VSBY may drop to MVFR in a SHRA/TSRA. CIGs are
forecast to remain VFR even in precipitation. Expecting mainly VFR
conditions overnight, only exception is more smoke (FU) that is
dropping south out of Canada and looks to move south through the
area. There is some surface smoke upstream across ND, and it`s
possible for KPIR/KMBG to see MVFR VSBY in FU. Inserted mention
of this into their TAFs, but not out of the question to see some
of this in KABR/KATY as well, although smoke concentration may
not be as high that far east. Will continue to monitor.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...Vipond
AVIATION...TMT