600
FXUS63 KABR 021745 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1245 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast
  through Monday. There is a marginal risk (1 out of 5) for severe
  storms on Monday.

- Surface smoke from wildfires is expected to persist across much
  of the region through Sunday. Monitor the latest from the EPA
  and state agencies, as there may be impacts for those sensitive
  to smoke.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 18Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 846 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

No changes planned to the today period forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

An upper low/MCV continue to spin over north central SD early this
morning. The bands of thunderstorms circulating around it have
remained sub-severe. This system will slowly make its way east today
with a continuous moisture feed provided by low level southerly
flow. The absence of a fully open Gulf, though, will keep QPF
manageable for the region as the precip remains west of the Coteau
until late tonight. Will need to be cognizant of saturated areas
east of the Coteau, even with the less than an inch of QPF expected.
Precipitation remains in the forecast through Monday due to
shortwave reinforcement and the persistent weak sfc low over western
SD. By Sunday night, this low meanders into central SD which helps
provide forcing farther east. At this time, no severe storms are
expected through Monday.

The wet pattern continues the first half of the work week with a
series of lows moving off the Rockies. There is some drier mid level
air expected with the mid week low, so some of the precip may be
shunted into ND and MN. Still, ensembles keep a 15 to 35 percent
chance of precip around late Thursday through Saturday.

The other issue of concern is the near sfc smoke from Canadian and
western US fires. HRRR has lessening concentrations for Sunday, but
the RAP keeps vsby in that 4 to 6 mile range through Sunday. Have
kept smoke mention in the grids, accordingly.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Smoke (both aloft and near the surface) continues to hang around
this afternoon with visibilities generally around 4-7SM.
Improvement to VFR is possible again prior to 00Z. However, before
sunrise on Sunday, MVFR visibility in smoke is expected to return.
KPIR and KMBG should mix out their MVFR stratus cigs by 00Z this
evening. However, most of the terminals could be dealing with some
MVFR low clouds again by sunrise Sunday morning (KPIR currently
being the lone exception. Isolated/widely scattered intermittent
showers are ongoing across the region. An increase in showers areal
coverage, and the development of a few thunderstorms are expected
between 21Z this afternoon and 06Z tonight. The slow moving nature
of showers and thunderstorms will mean heavy rain is the main
threat.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...10