541
FXUS63 KABR 062207
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
407 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A wintry mix of precipitation is expected Friday night through
early Saturday afternoon. Light Snow is mainly expected over
northeastern South Dakota and mainly rain expected over central
South Dakota. There is a 25% chance of 1" or more snow over
northeastern SD.

- Winds out of the west to northwest will gust 35 to near 50 mph
late Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon over central SD.

- High temperatures Saturday through Monday will be mainly in the
30s, or 10-15 degrees below normal. Wind chills in the single digits
will be possible Saturday night and Sunday nights.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 406 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

It`s been a cloudy day as a 1001mb surface low transitioned west to
east across the state, currently over far northeastern SD. There is
a secondary low over southeastern Saskatchewan and northwestern SD.
This feature will slide southeast and set up a west to east oriented
cold front near the ND/SD border by 12Z Friday, making a difficult
temperature forecast for Friday. Temperatures will fall into the 40s
overnight. While temperatures remain in the 40s over much of the
area Friday afternoon, they will rebound into the 50s over south
central SD - where the cold front is both slower to get to and has
limited influence due to another nearing area of low pressure. The
cold front will also bring a 20 percent chance of light rain to
portions of far northeastern South Dakota Friday morning.

By 00Z Saturday we`ll have 1 surface low over far southwestern SD or
eastern WY, and another low/clipper over southwestern Saskatchewan.
The southern low will track across NE Friday night, with the
northern low moving weakening as it moves over north central SD
(near MBG) by 12Z Saturday, and quickly exiting over southeastern SD
by 18Z. The scattered nature to the onset of precipitation is
resulting in only moderate confidence in our current timing. Still,
most light rain will be west of the MO River through 02Z Saturday
before moving east-southeast. The highest precipitation is expected
over our southern counties and south. Total precipitation amount of
0.03 to 0.15", with only a 35% chance of 0.10" or greater south of a
line from Redfield to Watertown. The chance for 1" or more snow has
also diminished, down to near 25% and mainly over elevated and
grassy surfaces Friday night into Saturday morning over northeastern
South Dakota, mainly east of a line from Aberdeen to Clark.

The rain/snow/wintry mix line is starting to become a bit more
defined from around Eureka and Selby on the north end of our
forecast area, to Redfield and Clark on the southern end. While it
still looks like a mainly rain/snow event, we can`t completely rule
out an hour or 2 of light freezing rain around daybreak Saturday.
Little to no icing is expected at this time.

Along with a wintry mix, we`ll also be monitoring for strong winds.
Winds out of the north to northwest will gust 35 to near 50 mph late
Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon over central SD. The
strongest winds are expected west of a line from Pierre to
Chamberlain. There is around a 30% chance of winds greater than 45
mph over portions of Jones and Lyman Counties.

High temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s Saturday through
Monday, with wind chills in the single digits and teens Saturday
night and again Sunday night.

Look for dry weather to continue Saturday night through next
Thursday. A warming trend is forecast, with highs mainly in the 50s
Tuesday through Thursday (with some low 60s over central SD Tuesday
afternoon).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1117 AM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Winds will be a bit gusty today as an area of low pressure continues
to moves through the area. Northwesterly winds over KMBG and KPIR
will continue through the day and become more westerly this evening.
Southwesterly winds over KABR and KATY will start to shift to the
west this afternoon into the evening. Wind will be gusting around 20-
25kts at KMBG, KPIR, and KABR this afternoon and KATY will have
gusts up around 35kts. Winds are forecast to calm down slightly
tonight, with gusts of 15-20kts at the terminals, though there will
be stronger winds aloft (gusting up around 35-40kts) that will cause
some low level wind shear over the terminals. Friday`s winds over
KPIR and KMBG are forecast to increase again early Friday morning,
with gusts up to 20-25kts.

While there will be cloudy skies over the area, VFR conditions are
expected over the terminals through today and most of the night.
Lower clouds are forecast to start moving into northern SD early
Friday morning as a cold front start to move in. The frontal passage
will mostly be dry, though there could be some isolated light rain
showers that could occur near KABR and KATY during the morning and
early afternoon.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...12