


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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019 FXUS63 KABR 312349 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 649 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Fog is expected to develop over portions of the area tonight into Monday morning. - Showers and weak thunderstorms will continue through Monday, shifting east of the James valley Monday afternoon and evening. Severe weather is not expected. - A cold front will move through on Tuesday, with a 25 to 45 percent chance of rain. The remainder of the week is expected to stay dry. - Below normal temperatures are expected for mid week. Highs will be in the 60s, 10 to 20 degrees below normal. Low temperatures Thursday morning may dip into the upper 30s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 638 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 See the updated aviation discussion below. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 The very slow moving upper low will meander south tonight into Nebraska, cutting off the persistent showers and thunderstorms across central SD. Any areas that scatter out tonight will be prone to fog given the ample llm. Some of the fog may be dense. Can`t rule out an additional shower or two lingering or redeveloping across the east on Monday as a shortwave passes through in the afternoon and evening. North to northwest flow aloft will dominate through mid week. Upper troughing dips into the northern Plains Tuesday evening bringing caa and more chances for rain. The upper low dives into the Great Lakes Wednesday as Canadian high pressure builds in from the north at the sfc. Both of these features will reinforce caa, and winds may be pretty gusty, as well. Wouldn`t be surprised to see temps dips into the 30s on Wednesday night with drier air moving in at the mid levels and skies clearing. Highs for the latter half of the work week will be 10 to 15 degrees below normal with sfc high pressure keeping the region mostly dry. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 638 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Scattered showers continue across the region, although model trends suggest coverage will continue to decrease as we head into the overnight hours. When showers do move over a TAF site MVFR CIGS are possible. Otherwise, will be watching for the development of fog again late tonight/Monday morning. The placement of cloud cover may influence fog development. Right now the KATY TAF site stands the greatest chance of having MVFR/IFR fog related impacts. Trends will help guide the 06 TAF update. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Serr DISCUSSION...20 AVIATION...Serr