Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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923 FXUS63 KABR 240000 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 600 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Fog is possible overnight across portions of the region, with visibility potentially dropping to less than 1 mile. - There is a 10 to 20% chance of light snow over portions of south central and northeastern SD into west central MN Sunday through Sunday night. Little to no accumulation is expected. - Much below normal temperatures becoming more likely by the end of the upcoming week, with highs in the teens and 20s and lows in the single digits to near zero. && .UPDATE... Issued at 540 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 See the updated aviation discussion below for the 00Z TAFS. && .SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 329 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Plenty of mid and high clouds passing overhead, along with areas of lower stratus across portions of the CWA. Will continue to see clouds affecting the region through the overnight hours, but the bigger challenge lies in determining just how expansive the stratus becomes tonight. Models have had somewhat of a difficult time handling the lower clouds, so overall confidence isn`t the greatest, but still anticipate expanding low clouds to some extent, nonetheless. Models are also indicating fog potential over a good portion of the CWA, so have inserted mention of this. Maybe a better bet in the Glacial Lakes region where persistent upslope flow may aid in fog development. The expected cloud cover also makes low temperatures a bit tricky tonight. Generally went with NBM for lows, but could see some locations not getting as cold as its values, due to the cloud cover. Next item of interest will be the passing weak wave on Sunday into Sunday evening. Did end up expanding the slight chance (20%) PoPs that were across the far eastern CWA. Stretched these chances a bit further southwest into the southern CWA, given the latest trends in some of the hi-res output. Looks like a light precip event if any areas of snow can materialize, with HREF Grand Ensemble probability of measurable snow generally around 40% or less (mostly less) across the far southeast CWA, stretching southwest along the FSD CWA border. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 329 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Main concern for the long term will be our first blast of cold temperatures as confidence is increasing on arctic air surging southward over the area for the end of the week into next weekend. Starting out Monday, the low skirting the Northern Conus/Canada, and its associated shortwave over the Northern Plains, will continue eastward through the day with winds turning northwesterly on the backside of the system. An elongated high pressure system will move in from the northwest, behind the low, and remain over the area through Tuesday. Winds aloft will turn more zonal/slight northwest flow as split flow continues, creating a messy pattern overall. The high pushes more eastward Wednesday as the pattern aloft will bring several weak shortwaves/pulses from the northwest with a surface trough setting up over the Northern Plains. NBM has 15-20% pops for this time frame with Ptype being snow. No accumulation expected. At the same time from this northwest flow, a shortwave and its surface low/front tracks southeast over the Canadian Territories. By 12Z Thursday, this low is forecasted to be over Manitoba/Ontario border with a mainly dry cold front having pass through the area. A stronger high (1036mb!) will move in behind it and remain the dominant feature through the holiday weekend with overall dry weather forecasted. With this high moving in, temps will be about 5 to 15 degrees below average early next week with the coldest 850mb temps over the northern and northeastern CWA ranging from -8 to -10C Monday afternoon and -3 to -7C Tuesday afternoon with 925mb temps -8 to - 10C over this area during this time. Overall highs are forecasted in the upper teens to upper 20s/30 and lows in the single digits to lower teens. Jump ahead to the end of the week and next weekend this next high will bring in even colder temps with a blast of our first arctic air. Mean GEFS/EC/GEPS indicate 850mb temps Thursday afternoon/Friday morning range from -10 to -14C with values as low as -16C over the northeastern CWA by Saturday. Highs for Friday and Saturday are forecasted to range from around 10 degrees (over the Coteau) to the low/mid 20s across central SD. Lows are forecasted to drop well into the single digits to possibility below zero Sunday morning. This is about 10-20 degrees below average. NBM probability of lows below zero range from 20-70%, highest over northeastern SD for the holiday weekend. There is still several degrees difference between NBM 25-75th percentile range this far out. For fun Sunday morning (looking to be the coldest morning) ABR could be -6 for the 25th percentile or in the low single digits (75th percentile), so either way its cold! && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 540 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG There`s been a mixture of cigs late this afternoon across all 4 terminals. KPIR and to a certain extent KMBG have seen MVFR cigs while KABR/KATY have seen VFR conditions. That will begin to change a bit later this evening into the overnight for those eastern 2 terminals as low stratus is expected to build in and lead to MVFR/IFR cigs. KPIR/KMBG will also see a period of IFR cigs overnight. Foggy conditions will develop after midnight and will affect KATY`s terminal with MVFR/IFR vsbys early Sunday morning through mid morning. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Vipond SHORT TERM...TMT LONG TERM...MMM AVIATION...Vipond