503
FXUS63 KABR 020209 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
909 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A storm system will bring a wintry mix of rain, freezing rain
  and snow to the region through the day Wednesday. The highest
  amounts of total snow (of 4 to 7 inches) will occur from the
  Leola Hills across far northern Brown county and eastward into
  Minnesota, including the entire Sisseton Hills region. Icing of
  0.1 to 0.3 inches is possible over portions of central to
  eastern SD, highest over the eastern slopes of the Prairie
  Coteau of east central SD.

- Winds will gust out of the east to southeast at 30 to 40 mph
  out of the north to northwest during the day Wednesday, which
  will lead to patchy blowing snow and reduced visibilities when
  snow is falling.

- There is a 20-30% chance of light rain or snow Friday into
  early Saturday. Very little to any accumulation is expected.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 905 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

An enhanced band of moisture continues to push north toward North
Dakota this morning. That`s associated with a 700 mb low
circulating in western SD. Expect another lull behind this band
before the sfc low intensifies and becomes stacked between 9z and
12z. At that point, moisture will fill in and precipitation will
become more intense from Lyman county east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 408 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

The first round of rain/snow is beginning to move north of the area
this afternoon while more precipitation begins to approach
northeast and north-central South Dakota. The surface low over the
Central High Plains is beginning to move east-northeast across
Northwest Kansas and Southwest Nebraska this afternoon. The
primary challenge with this forecast remains the precipitation
type and when the changeover to snow could happen across the area.
Along and north of a Dewey to Spink to Deuel county line, a
rain/snow mix to snow transition is expected during the late
afternoon to evening timeframe. As the low slides to the east of
the CWA tonight through tomorrow, cooler air will work its way
down from Canada allowing for the precipitation to become mainly
snow. With the warmer air in place this afternoon and Wednesday
afternoon (across the southern part of the CWA), overall expected
snowfall amounts have decreased a bit. The exception will be along
the Leola Hills and the Sisseton Hills where a period of easterly
winds will provide some added lift to produce higher snowfall
potential (in excess of 6 inches). Therefore, the area of highest
concern will be from eastern McPherson county, across northern
Brown county, then eastward into west central Minnesota. There is
also potential for a period of freezing rain in the transition
zone between rain and snow, with many locations east of the
Missouri River in the threat area for some icing. Winds will also
be an issue with this system, with gusts of 30 to 35 mph possible,
especially across the eastern half of the area.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Highs
on Wednesday will be in the lower to mid 30s with overnight lows in
the mid to upper 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 408 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

On Thursday conditions should be dry as high pressure near the
surface moves into the Dakotas behind our current system underneath
an upper level ridge. Temperatures are expected to be a bit warmer
compared to Wednesday with highs in the upper 30s to 40s and
overnight lows in the low to mid 20s. A cold front will move across
the area beginning overnight Thursday into Friday morning, bringing
potential for a rain/snow mix for far north-central South Dakota
with a 30-50% chance for rain over the rest of the area through the
afternoon as the front moves through. As temperatures cool in the
evening, a transition to snow is possible through the overnight
hours with precipitation tapering off from north to south over the
area. With little mid to upper moisture for this system to utilize,
little to no snow accumulation remains expected with only a few
hundredths of liquid through Friday night. Temperatures on Friday
look to be a tad warmer with highs in the low to mid 40s and
overnight lows in the teens to lower 20s.

As we move into the weekend, long-range guidance continues to favor
the large trough extending from Canada to northern Mexico with the
trough axis moving across the Great Plains. Once the precipitation
tapers off late Friday night, an extended dry period is favored
through early next week while an upper ridge moves across the CONUS.
Temperatures on Saturday could be similar to Friday followed by some
temperatures near lower 50s nudging into the westernmost counties
Sunday while those east of the Missouri River will see temperatures
in the upper 30s to 40s for highs. The warmer temperatures will
continue to advect east as the upper ridge moves over the Dakotas
with highs warming to the 50s to 60s by next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 616 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR/IFR conditions will persist as rain, snow and freezing
rain/drizzle move over the region through Wednesday afternoon.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for SDZ005>008-011-
     020-021-023.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT Wednesday for SDZ009-010-
     016>018.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for SDZ019-022.

MN...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...20
SHORT TERM...GLD
LONG TERM...GLD
AVIATION...20