502
FXUS63 KABR 060521
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1221 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near to above normal temperatures on Sunday will cool to be 5
  to 20 degrees below normal on Monday.

- Widespread 20-30% chance of light rain Tuesday night into
  Thursday morning; accumulations of less than a quarter inch.

- Temperatures will become 5 to 15 degrees above normal for the
  latter half of the work week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 842 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

No changes to the forecast through 12Z Sunday. Quiet conditions
expected with light southwest breezes and increasing high clouds
by morning. Still on track for lows in the 20s for most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 118 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

At 1 PM CDT, skies are clear/sunny and temperatures are warming
through the 30s and 40s for the most part. Winds are mostly
westerly 5 to 15 mph with gusts occasionally higher than 20 mph.

A nearly stagnant upper level steering flow pattern of upper level
ridging to the west and upper level troughing to the east should
maintain a dry northwest flow aloft over this CWA through Sunday
night. Surface high pressure over the region tonight will be
interrupted by a back-door cold frontal passage on Sunday. This
interruption means a brief reprieve from the near to above normal
temperatures that will have overspread the CWA on Sunday, prior to
cold fropa. Behind the cold fropa, notable (for April) low level CAA
will sweep in on breezy (15 to 25 mph/gusts to 35 mph) north-
northeast winds, while cold Canada-dry surface high pressure builds
down across the region Sunday night. Right now, there is a 40-50
percent chance of low temperatures falling to or below 15F degrees
Sunday night across portions of north central and northeast South
Dakota. The only things keeping Sunday night low temperatures
from being colder than currently forecast is the expected
continued CAA-mixing/pressure-gradient aided northerly winds and
potential areas of post-frontal CAA stratus working southward into
the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 118 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

The long term starts Monday morning with an upper level ridge moving
in from the west. The axis of the ridge will be over the forecast
area Tuesday afternoon. An upper level disturbance moves across the
area Wednesday afternoon, followed by a trough Thursday morning.
Another ridge moves in Friday and lasts through the end of the
period. Down at the surface, a low corresponding to that upper level
disturbance will move across the SD/NE border. Following that, high
pressure moves in until a low starts to move into western SD on
Saturday with a warm front draped across central SD.

Tuesday night into early Thursday morning, we have some widespread
slight to chance PoPs (20-30%) for some light rain. Not expecting
too much accumulation out of this, less than a quarter of an inch.
There is some signal for some rain with that low moving in on
Saturday, but details are limited.

After a cool start, temperatures will be on the upward swing through
the period, reaching widespread 70s by the weekend. Most of this
warm up will be towards the end of the work week. Winds look to be a
bit gusty Thursday afternoon, mainly west of the James River as high
pressure moves in behind low pressure.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...TMT