467
FXUS63 KABR 060134 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
834 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong winds will be possible Saturday and Sunday over mainly
  north central South Dakota, with southerly sustained winds up
  to 30 mph and gusts up to 45 mph.

- A lull in precipitation expected through Sunday with the
  return of shower and thunderstorms Sunday night and
  periodically through next week.

- A brief weekend warmup will push high temperatures into the
  90s this weekend, around 10 to 15 degrees above normal for
  early June.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 823 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Had earlier extended slight chance PoPs another couple hours
across the eastern CWA to account for a couple remaining
isolated showers. The last of this activity seems to be exiting
the CWA by 02Z, then expecting dry conditions the rest of the
night. Quiet conditions in store for the overnight hours with
lows dropping into the 50s for most areas. Models hinting at
some fog early Saturday morning across west central MN and
perhaps into parts of the Big Sioux valley. May insert patchy
fog mention this evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

An uppper-level shortwave will be moving over central and
northeastern SD through the day. This shortwave will help to give
some forcing during the afternoon to help some isolated to scattered
showers and storms to develop. Models show MLCAPE values up around
1000 J/kg during the afternoon over northeastern SD, which will help
with some storm development. With northwest flow cooling the mid
levels a bit, mid-level lapse rates will get up around 6.5 C/km.
This will help with hail growth in the storms leading to hail an
inch or more in diameter possible. Additionally, DCAPE values up
around 800 J/kg could get some stronger winds to the surface if a
storm were to form and collapse fairly quickly. There is a marginal
risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms to develop and produce 1
inch or greater hail and occasional wind gusts up to 60 mph. These
storms will likely dissipate around sunset. Otherwise, high pressure
will start to move into central SD and will help to keep rain and
storms from developing in that area.

As a week upper-level ridge moves over SD tonight, the high surface
pressure will move east overnight and settle over MN/WI during the
weekend. This will help to give central and northeastern SD a break
from showers and storms through most of the weekend. At the same
time, lower surface pressure will be developing over the Rockies.
This low pressure to the west and the high pressure to the east will
sandwich SD causing a tight pressure gradient over the state. This
will push strong southerly winds over SD Saturday and Sunday.
Saturday`s winds look to be strongest over areas west of the
Missouri River, with 60-90% chance of sustained winds greater than
30 mph (mainly in north central SD) and 50-80% chance for wind gusts
greater than 45 mph. The winds spread east Sunday, with 50-90%
chance for sustained winds greater than 30 mph and 30-60% chance for
wind gusts greater than 45 mph over north central SD. Some areas of
central and north central SD could reach wind advisory criteria and
this will need to be watched over the next couple model runs. These
southerly winds will be pushing warm air into SD, causing
temperatures to warm 10-15 and 15-20 degrees above normal Saturday
and Sunday respectfully. High temperatures will be in the mid 80s to
low 90s Saturday and upper 80s to upper 90s Sunday.

A cold front over MT/WY will be moving its way east through the day
Sunday, with it reaching central SD Sunday evening and northeastern
SD during the overnight hours into Monday morning. This cold front
will help showers and storms to develop Sunday evening overnight.
Currently, the SPC has a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe
storms to develop in areas west of the James River Valley. Behind
the cold front that moves through, temperatures look to cool
slightly Monday, with high in the upper 70s to mid 80s. A warm front
will then move in Tuesday and will help to warm temperatures back
into the upper 80s to mid 90s through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. South-
southeast winds will increase across KPIR/KMBG on Saturday, with
gusts approaching 30 knots by the afternoon hours.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...TMT