578
FXUS63 KABR 050131 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
831 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog will be possible overnight due to the melting snow
  and diminishing winds.

- Below normal temperatures will continue through Tuesday. Monday
  will be the coldest day, with highs mainly in the 30s, or
  around 15 to 20 degrees below normal.

- Winds out of the southwest will gusts 30 to 40 mph during
  the daytime hours Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 829 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Not much in the way of cloud cover across the CWA as the storm
system is now well off to our east. Reduced sky cover across the
area this evening based on latest satellite trends. Patchy fog
still possible across parts of the area late tonight into early
Sunday morning and will leave mention of this in the forecast.
Otherwise, looking for lows to drop into the 20s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

As of 19Z we still have an area of light to moderate snow over far
northeastern SD and west central MN. Observations at Wheaton and
Ortonville were showing visibility in the falling snow down to 1
mile. As has been the case, once the snow ends the visibility has
been able to quickly rise to 6 miles or greater. Given the winds out
of the northwest gusting 25 to 35 mph over newly fallen snow, there
are some indications of low level drifting snow. However, the warm
temperatures (in the 30s) and warm road temperatures have resulted
in only isolated drifting that has mainly melted.

The melting snow today will result in increasing low level moisture.
While we don`t have a perfect light wind night, it may still be
enough to allow for fog development as temperatures fall into the
20s - along with the dewpoints. The main areas of concern look to be
over Brown and Spink Counties east, but it will be depend on how
much snow is on the ground as limited snow remains over Spink
County. While the potential is mentioned here and in the weather
story (social media), we will need to monitor the latest trends so
see how broad impacts may be.

The latest surface weather map shows the exiting low over the Upper
Great Lakes, with a trough extending through out area. The 500mb low
is over far northern WI. The surface high will be over western and
central SD by 00Z, allowing for quickly diminishing winds before the
high sinks south.

A weak trough moving across ND and clipping northeastern SD/west
central MN Sunday will bring increased cloud cover and a 20% chance
of light rain/snow. Little to no accumulation is expected at this
time.

Colder high pressure will sink in from central Canada Monday, with
temperatures maxing out in the 30s over much of the area. We`re near
the 70th percentile Monday, so a slightly lower temperature will be
possible. The surface high will be over far northeastern SD and MN
by 06Z Tuesday. The pressure gradient will increase behind the
strong surface high Tuesday afternoon, with gusts out of the
southwest 30 to 40 mph during the daytime hours. Fire weather
concerns look limited despite the strong winds, not only because of
the recent precipitation, but with the forecast of minimum relative
humidity values mainly at 45% or higher.

Farther out, we`ll be watching for an area of low pressure to slide
across southern Canada through the Northern Plains Tuesday night
through Wednesday. At this time, the chances of precipitation stay
mainly to our north or south. Precipitation chances increase
Thursday into Friday (30-40%) as low pressure organizes to our south
and southwesterly flow pushes in aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 624 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. There is some
potential for patchy fog over portions of the region late tonight
into early Sunday morning. Although, low confidence on areal
coverage and actual occurrence of any fog, so will leave out
mention at this time and evaluate again for the 06Z TAFs.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...TMT