318
FXUS63 KABR 042315 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
615 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a Marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms over
central and northeastern SD and west central MN Saturday afternoon.
The primary hazards will be 1 inch in diameter hail and 60 mph wind
gusts.

- There is a Marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms over
portions of north central SD and northeast SD into west central MN
Sunday afternoon into the evening hours. Main hazards will be 1 inch
diameter hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

- Our warming trend continues into the weekend, peaking at 15 to 20
degrees above normal Saturday. Highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s
are expected.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 612 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Made a couple of hourly tweaks to pops to better reflect radar
trends, but overall the forecast is on track this evening. No
major changes are planned.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

As of 12:30 PM CDT, this morning`s fog has mostly burned off and in
its place we have mostly sunny skies. Temperatures across the area
are in the 70s to low 80s, coolest where the fog lasted longer, with
winds out of the northeast to southeast. Winds west river will gust
30-35 mph at times while winds east of the James River will
generally stay below 20 mph. There is a slight chance (10-15%) for
some showers and weak thunderstorms late this afternoon into the
evening hours with another round (30-55%) Saturday morning into the
afternoon.

Both Saturday and Sunday have a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for
severe storms. Saturday, the risk covers the entire forecast area.
Sunday, the risk covers all of northeast SD and west central MN
along with portions of north central SD and will be mainly during
the afternoon and evening. There will be a pretty good cap in place
with 850 mb temps between 22 and 25 degrees C, but if storms can
overcome this, they may become severe. Both days the main hazards
will be 1 inch diameter hail and 60 mph wind gusts. Models have
moved the time frame for precipitation on Saturday up to include the
daytime hours, previously they had a pretty much dry day with storms
starting during the late afternoon to early evening. PoPs in general
have backed off on Sunday and are now less widespread, covering
mainly areas east of the Missouri River during the afternoon and
areas along and east of the James River during the evening. Monday
does not have an outlook yet, but there is a good chance there will
be one as low pressure enters the region and has lots of Gulf
moisture to work with. PWATs are still in the 99.5 NAEFS percentile
or above for most of Monday with values between 1.5 and 1.75 inches.
This will help storms intensify and could also lead to some heavy
downpours during storms. These storm chances look to continue into
early Tuesday morning.

Highs Saturday are still expected to be above average by as much as
20 degrees then temperatures will cool down into next work week and
be much closer to average. After today, winds look to be pretty
normal until Monday when gusts of 30-35 mph will be possible across
most of the forecast area during the afternoon, lingering over
northeast SD during the evening and potentially into Tuesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 612 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday
afternoon.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...20
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...20