615
FXUS63 KABR 021717 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1117 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 40-60% chance of snow and/or a wintry mix this
  afternoon though the overnight hours for north central/James
  valley region with lower probabilities for far northeast and
  central South Dakota. Snow accumulations around an inch or less
  with a light glaze from any freezing rain/drizzle.

- Expect above normal temperatures Wednesday through at least
  Monday of next week. The warmest air will be overhead Thursday,
  with highs in the 40s to low 50s, which will be around 20
  degrees above normal.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1116 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Aviation discussion below has been updated in accordance with the
18Z TAF issuance.

UPDATE Issued at 1037 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Fog mention was expanded eastward in areal coverage and also
extended further into the afternoon across central SD based on
area web cams and visibility progs from hi-res models. Also made
some edits to PoPs to better match current area of snow showers
moving east-southeast across northern SD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 135 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Stratus covers most of the CWA with high clouds above that. High
pressure to the north is responsible for northeast to easterly flow
across South Dakota, with upslope easterlies west river. Models hint
as fog development in the far western CWA due to this upslope but as
of yet, webcams remain clear of any fog. Focus shifts to a weak
system that drifts down out of North Dakota around mid-afternoon.
Stratus out ahead of this feature has a thickness of about 3000ft,
the minimum for drizzle, so cant rule it out before mid-day, but as
moisture increases ahead of the system, this becomes more probable.
Ice in the dendritic growth zone is intermittent, so wouldn`t be
surprised if there were periods of drizzle mixed with snow as the
system goes overhead afternoon/evening timeframe. As the system
departs, thick (4-5kft) stratus remains in place so specifically
targeted the overnight time frame for drizzle.

As for overall moisture, NBM QPF is on the order of a few hundreds,
with the 25th-75th range from T to 0.1". Thus, still just expecting
a dusting to upwards of an inch. At least the gradient remains weak
with negligible impact from winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 135 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Dry weather will dominate much of the long term period, with only
around a 20% chance of a light wintry mix changing to all snow and
ending prior to daybreak Wednesday. We`ll be watching for the
potential for flurries to continue over our southeastern counties
for a few hours, but at this point conditions look mainly dry as the
main surface high exits across MN into IA Tuesday night and the
weak/filling through slips to southeastern SD by 09Z Wednesday.

A stronger ridge over CO up through western ND will slide across our
forecast area late Wednesday morning into the early afternoon hours
before moving over far southern MN/IA. We`ll be watching the surface
low over central Canada at 00Z Thursday as it crosses Manitoba
Wednesday night and extends a warm front across the central and
eastern Dakotas and into MN by 12Z Thursday. Behind the warm front
much warmer air will be able to move in, with 850mb temperatures
peaking around 5 to 9C at 00Z Friday. High temperatures should top
out in the 40s, with low 50s mainly west of the MO River. Normal
high temperatures for this time of year are in the mid 20s to near
30 degrees. Thursday still looks to be the warmest and breeziest day
over the next week. An intrusion of 50kt winds at 900mb and cold
air advection Thursday evening could bring some short lived lee of
the Prairie Coteau downslope winds off a northwesterly wind.
However, with winds switching mainly out of the north from later
Thursday evening could limit some of the winds getting to the
surface. While it will be difficult to completely go with a dry
forecast Thursday night as the cold front sinks in the main area of
precipitation looks to stay to our north and east - closer to the
surface low and 500mb wave sweeping through.

Even though high temperatures fall 10-13F Friday, they will still be
8 to 15 degrees above normal. The 500mb ridge that will be nearly
steady-state over the western U.S. Monday night through Thursday
will push across the southern plains through WY and up through
British Columbia Friday, and be surpressed over the Northern Plains
as smaller/weak waves move through on our mainly northwesterly flow.
A flatter ridge looks to move across the Northern Plains for later
Sunday into Monday. Well above normal temperatures and mainly dry
weather look to continue.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1116 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Fog is hanging on so far this morning over central and north central
South Dakota, bringing low ceilings and reduced visibilities, down
to IFR and at times, LIFR levels. This fog may hang on for the next
couple of hours, dissipating later this afternoon. Where fog is
present, visibility may continue to intermittently drop below 1
mile.

The other aviation concern comes in the form of precipitation moving
into the area this afternoon through tonight. Precip will fall
mainly as snow, although there may be some patches of rain or
freezing rain later this afternoon and evening, mainly along and
west of the Missouri River. Visibility reductions and low clouds
(both down to IFR levels) are expected with the snow. Snow will
taper off tonight, will some flurries lingering into the early
morning hours. Only minor visibility reductions are expected by
that point, but IFR ceilings are expected to persist through the
duration of the TAF period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...06
AVIATION...BC