268
FXUS63 KABR 221753 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1153 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 15 to 25% chance of light snow over portions of north
central and northeastern SD into west central MN Sunday through late
Sunday night. Little to no accumulation is expected.

- Average to slightly below average temperatures this weekend and
around 5 to 10 degrees below average early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1143 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

See the updated aviation discussion below for the 18Z TAFS.

UPDATE Issued at 1024 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

The forecast remains on track for the remainder of today. No
significant changes anticipated at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 315 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Some patchy low stratus has developed tonight along the Missouri and
over upslope areas of the Coteau that received snow earlier this
week. Some of this may lower as fog toward sunrise, but it`s too
uncertain as to how widespread that may become to provide more than
a mention here. With high pressure building down from the northwest
again tonight into Saturday morning, stratus and/or fog may develop
again given the similar regime. Otherwise, the short term remains
pretty benign with dry conditions and seasonable temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 315 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Saturday night starts the period with an upper level ridge over the
area. This will get pushed east by a low moving south out of Canada
late Sunday into early Monday. A ridge moves in behind. Another
upper level low comes down out of Canada Tuesday night into
Wednesday. At the surface, we stay under relatively high pressure.
However, Thursday a low pressure system moves into the area out of
Canada and a cold front sweeps across the area at the surface. Just
for fun, lets look at some temps to go along with that Thursday low.
So, 24 hours ahead of the low (Wednesday afternoon), 700 mb temps
are between -10 and -12 degrees C. By the time the low arrives
(Thursday late morning/early afternoon , temps are down to -17 to -
19 degrees C. By the time the low exits the area (Friday morning),
temps are solidly in the -19 to -20 degree range across the area.
This colder air sticks around through the end of the period. Down at
850 mb, the story is pretty similar, temps decrease by 10 to 15
degrees and stay there through the end of the period. This is going
to translate to some temperatures going into the holiday weekend
that are 10 to 15 degrees below normal, a big change from our recent
above average temps.

There aren`t very many chances for precipitation in any form during
the period. The only PoPs in the forecast at the moment are around
15 to 25% right along the ND/SD border Sunday afternoon. Temps at
this time point towards this falling as snow if this does happen.

As mentioned, temperatures at the end of the period will be turning
towards below average. Before we get there though, the first portion
of the term will have around to just slightly below average
temperatures. On the winds side of things, Sunday could have some
gusts upwards of 30 to 35 mph across central SD as the ridge gets
pushed out by the low, especially in the afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1143 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all 4 TAF sites through
this next 24 hour forecast period. KATY will see the potential for
low end VFR stratus developing early Saturday morning. Also, will
have to monitor for some IFR vsby fog development there, but at
this time left it out of the forecast. Anticipate mid level cloud
cover; and in some instances lower level clouds, to thicken and
pass over the region overnight and during the day Saturday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Vipond
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...Vipond