354
FXUS63 KABR 250826
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
226 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 20 to 30 percent chance of light snow Wednesday morning
through the afternoon over portions of northeastern SD into west
central MN.

- High confidence on much below normal temperatures by the end of
the week through the weekend, with highs in the lower teens to 20s
and lows in the single digits above zero to the single digits below
zero.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 225 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

Clouds persist over the eastern cwa early this morning with some
filling back in between the Missouri and James valleys. Expect that
all of the clouds will exit by mid morning. Generally, dry
conditions are expected through Tuesday as high pressure builds into
the Dakotas today. Can`t completely rule out some snow streamers
this morning near Pierre, though, as the northwest winds are
favorable off the warmer waters of the Missouri.

Northwest breezes diminish from west to east today as the upper
trough exits and the high builds in. On Tuesday, a weak warm front
develops along the SD/NE border in the morning and should be enough
to keep highs above freezing south of Hwy 14. H85 temps modify
slightly on Tuesday with more zonal flow aloft but remain in the
negative single digits Celsius. Ultimately, this translates to highs
about 5 to 10 degrees below normal across the forecast area today
and Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 225 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

Tuesday evening we are in zonal flow aloft with winds from the west
and a trough at the surface. A shortwave aloft will move across the
area Wednesday. This will move out Wednesday afternoon/evening. For
Thursday, we continue to see a signal for an arctic cold front
bringing much colder air to the area. So, how much colder is the air
thats coming in behind the front? Starting Tuesday evening 850 mb
temps are between -3 and -5 degrees C. By Thursday evening temps
drop to -12 to -14 C.  High pressure moves in behind but a shortwave
on Saturday could bring another round of light snow.

The snow on Wednesday looks to be concentrated over north
central/northeastern SD and west central MN with chances 30% or
less. Accumulations look to be highest over far northeastern SD and
west central MN of less than half an inch. Friday night, there is a
slight chance (25% or less) of some light snow across much of the
area lasting through Saturday morning. Accumulations could be around
an inch in parts of central SD, slightly less in northeastern SD.

Temperatures, as mentioned will be below average. Wednesday and
Thursday, highs are expected to be 5-10 degrees below average.
Friday through Sunday, highs are expected to be 15-20 degrees below
average. Monday, highs start to recover some, increasing to 10 to 15
degrees below average. Winds are not expected to be out of the
ordinary through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1142 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

The light snow across northeast South Dakota is beginning to wind
down late this evening and will continue shifting east into
Minnesota overnight. MVFR cigs will hang on for a bit longer at
KATY through the early morning hours until around 09Z this
morning. VFR conditions are then expected for all terminals
through the end of this TAF set. North to northwest winds will
remain gusty on occasion through the overnight, then strengthen
some during the daytime hours before diminishing by late
afternoon.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...Vipond