059
FXUS63 KABR 261850
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
150 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT, with heat indices from
  around 100 to as much as 110 degrees.

- There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms
  along/east of I-29 later today. Very small chance ~10% or
  less.

- Western wildfire smoke may impact visibility across the Missouri
  valley and points west tonight through Monday.

- Less intense heat but temperatures still 5 to 15 degrees above
  normal through at least mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Mid-level disturbance has pretty much cleared the CWA, with cloud
cover and showers exiting to the south and east. Plenty of sunshine
across the CWA this afternoon as temperatures rise through the upper
80s and 90s. Still several more degrees to go before the end of the
day, all the while dewpoints remain high for many areas. Quite a few
locations are already seeing heat indices from 105 to 110 early this
afternoon. No plans to change headlines and will let things expire
at 02Z this evening. Still appears there isn`t a need to extend it
at this time as temps/dewpoints on Monday are coming in a tad lower
than what we saw this weekend. This keeps forecast apparent T`s
below 100 across much of the CWA.

Also watching convection chances this afternoon. CAMs continue to
show limited potential over the CWA, but will be keeping an eye on
any developing cumulus within the weak surface trough later this
afternoon. If there is any initiation, it would be within this
trough as it eventually sets up over southeast SD.

Will need to monitor smoke trends overnight as HRRR-smoke product
shows increasing concentration of smoke aloft and at the surface
tonight through the day Monday. Satellite imagery shows quite a bit
of smoke aloft across western ND and MT, even some of this making it
to the surface as witnessed by a handful of obs from 5-9SM. Followed
trends of increasing surface smoke concentration in the HRRR to add
patchy smoke wording to portions of the CWA tonight through the day
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Will be
watching potential for smoke aloft, and perhaps at the surface
tonight through Monday. There may some VSBY restrictions, but
whether or not MVFR is attained is questionable at this time.
For now, will include 6SM FU (smoke) for KABR/KMBG/KPIR and see
how conditions evolve overnight.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening
     for SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051.
MN...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ039-
     046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...TMT